What percent of Letsrun forum users can ACTUALLY break 18 minutes for a 5k?

Taco Truck wrote:

Are you kidding me? Nobody that slow would waste that much time about running. I would say 95%. The 5% being occasional newbie who posted here thinking its a jogging forum.

I would point out that running is unusual among endurance sports in that many people that are far from exceptional are totally obsessed with it (have blogs dedicated entirely to running/races, run or attempt to run serious mileage, are on top of all the latest gear, subscribe/read running magazines, follow training plans, travel long distances for races, meticulously keep track of their paces, etc.) I wouldn't expect the same level of obsession among the thoroughly unexceptional in e.g., rowing, cross country skiing, biking, swimming, or even the triathlon. I would expect many of these "unexceptional" people to post on this message board.

While sub-18 is not particularly hard, I do think there are two distinct populations in the road racing world and correspondingly on LR - those that ran in college (and kept with it), and those that didn't. For much of the latter population, something like sub-16:30 is hardly attainable for all but the most talented.

I have no idea what percentage can break 18:00.

Let's say 25 - 30%, or more.

I did it all the time from age 16 to 45. Have come close since, but not dipped under (became a dad at 44, try training as the middle aged dad of a newborn. Ouch.)

But, enthusiasm for running as a lifestyle is unconnected to racing ability. Isn't that obvious?

Also, LR for sure has some readers and posters who are fans of the sport who are not actual runners.

ACTUAL Letsrunner wrote:

I put it at 40%.

In order to accommodate the age differences, perhaps you should ask how many have ever broken 18:00, and how many could actually break 18:00 right now. M/F and current age would also be useful.

As for me, yes, by just over 3 minutes, and not a chance right now. I'm 58.

Your 40% seems about right for those who have ever broken 18:00, about 20% could do it now.

LikeBekeleButSlow wrote:

I would point out that running is unusual among endurance sports in that many people that are far from exceptional are totally obsessed with it (have blogs dedicated entirely to running/races, run or attempt to run serious mileage, are on top of all the latest gear, subscribe/read running magazines, follow training plans, travel long distances for races, meticulously keep track of their paces, etc.) I wouldn't expect the same level of obsession among the thoroughly unexceptional in e.g., rowing, cross country skiing, biking, swimming, or even the triathlon. I would expect many of these "unexceptional" people to post on this message board.

I think you're wrong that runners are unique in that respect. I mean, seriously? You don't think that triathletes have the same "Look at me!" mentality?

The difference is that a triathlete needs to actually be able to swim and bike, otherwise all sorts of calamity would ensue (drowning, collisions, etc.) One doesn't need to know how to run - one could have terrible form - to be a "runner", enjoy the experience, and strive for personal achievements in the sport. (Of course, injuries can, and do, set a substantial percentage of the hobby joggers back.)I was not focusing on the attention seekers, but more on the population of people for whom running as a hobby is important enough to comment on LetsRun. My point is that there is a substantial group of people out there for whom a 7 minute mile is an accomplishment, but are nevertheless substantially invested in the sport time and resource-wise. But I also suspect that many of the LetsRun commenters are former collegians still passionate about the sport.

jamin wrote:

LikeBekeleButSlow wrote:

I would point out that running is unusual among endurance sports in that many people that are far from exceptional are totally obsessed with it (have blogs dedicated entirely to running/races, run or attempt to run serious mileage, are on top of all the latest gear, subscribe/read running magazines, follow training plans, travel long distances for races, meticulously keep track of their paces, etc.) I wouldn't expect the same level of obsession among the thoroughly unexceptional in e.g., rowing, cross country skiing, biking, swimming, or even the triathlon. I would expect many of these "unexceptional" people to post on this message board.

I think you're wrong that runners are unique in that respect. I mean, seriously? You don't think that triathletes have the same "Look at me!" mentality?

Birdlegs wrote:

ACTUAL Letsrunner wrote:

I put it at 40%.

In order to accommodate the age differences, perhaps you should ask how many have ever broken 18:00, and how many could actually break 18:00 right now. M/F and current age would also be useful.

That wouldn't work for me. I ran my first ever 5K on my 45th birthday.

LikeBekeleButSlow wrote:

My point is that there is a substantial group of people out there for whom a 7 minute mile is an accomplishment, but are nevertheless substantially invested in the sport time and resource-wise.

I think that running is no different than any other sport in that respect. You see a lot of high school football and basketball players who are substantially invested in their sport, are decent or good at the HS level, and are ignorant of, or in denial of, the fact they're not good enough to play in college unless they go to a sufficiently small school. They walk around school with gallon water jugs because they need to "hydrate" for football practice. Their parents pay for personal trainers. They might say they're planning to play for their state's university. Etcetera. Delusions of grandeur cut across all sports equally.

It's the blogging and showoff aspect that shines through so much in running. This is mainly because the sport has "sold out" to consumers. Race photographers, finisher medals -- all that nonsense strokes the egos of amateur runners.

The difference with running is you have times. It's pretty obvious where you stand.

I know I'm only locally/regionally competitive, but I think it's a ton of fun to invest lots of time and energy in this sport trying to get faster and become nationally competitive. Maybe I won't ever be nationally competitive, but there's only one way to find out, and I would definitely regret not trying. I'm enjoying this. It's fun.

I see no problem with someone much slower than me doing the same thing. In fact, I think it's beautiful.

100% because I can run with every single member of letsrun.com on my back and still be sub-18

xenonscreams wrote:

The difference with running is you have times. It's pretty obvious where you stand.

It's obvious to other serious runners. The crux of the biscuit is that most people have no concept of race time competitiveness. I told someone that my goal in 2014 is to run a sub-4:22 mile, and he responded that I could surely make it to the Olympics with that time.

If you're mediocre at basketball, everyone will know. All they have to do is see your lack of coordination when you play a pickup game. And your basketball skills are quantifiable (FT %, # pts, etc.). You can't get away with pretending to be good at basketball when you're not.

(This reminds me of a Seinfeld episode where Jerry goes to play tennis and sees on the other court the tennis "pro" who works at the local tennis shop. The guy is outed as a complete poser because he can barely hit the ball.)

I don't know many runners who actively brag about their times in the real world. Most people are slightly embarrassed because the sport is so humbling. I only mention my times to non-runners off the internet if they ask specifically what my times are or if they're being really annoying ("oh that's cool, I have a friend who runs ultras, he ran like a 3:25 marathon once, he is amazing, but that's cool that you race 6Ks in grass.")

very good post, every single word. phonys / loudmouths strongly disagree, as might be expected.

why can't we make surveys instead of just letting people comment?

I ran 16 flat as a freshman and i didn't even try in pratice. My friends on the team said i wasted my talent for running. Now i wish i would have tried in pratice :(

Sub 18 here. 40 miles on a good week. Almost zero track work. Just a lot of miles at 6:00-7:00 pace.

35 yr old male. Never ran in school, never had a coach.

Sub 18 is not that hard for a guy.

I'd say its pretty close to 50%.

This is me through my 30 - early 40s. Just turned 45 and this fall just started hitting 18:10 - 18:15, first time creeping above 18:00 since freshman year in HS. Wonder if I'll get back. Sucks to get old.

Rainy Day wrote:

Sub 18 here. 40 miles on a good week. Almost zero track work. Just a lot of miles at 6:00-7:00 pace.

35 yr old male. Never ran in school, never had a coach.

Sub 18 is not that hard for a guy.

I'd say its pretty close to 50%.

How many can break 18?...probably 50%

How many HAVE broken 18?...probably 75%

I started running in my mid 30's and ran mid 17's, now it's a great race if I break 24:00.

In the late 70's & early 80's mid 17's was mediocre.

I ran 13:30 and make $500k per year!!!

Gtg wrote:

formerly present wrote:

In any case, though I'm skinny I haven't been able to run a step for 40 years.

Are you serious? You haven't been able to run since Nixon was president? You missed out on dolphin shorts. Goretex. Running tights. Compression socks. Etc.

I'm as serious as a heart attack. For more than 40 years, I haven't been able to run across the street. It sucks bigtime. Still.

A few years ago there was a LetsRun poster--a young guy--who told us that he'd been diagnosed with some injury or condition that would keep him from ever running again, and that he was considering killing himself. From later info we received, apparently he did just that.

I was fairly close to being that guy. For years I lived in a town with a lot of high bridges, and many times when I crossed one I had to walk in the middle of the roadway: if I'd been on the walkways at the sides of the bridges, it just would've been too tempting to put a hand on the rail and hop over.

Even if you've never had a prayer of breaking 18:00, be glad that you can run at all. The alternative is unpleasant.

________________

Oh, and I've decided to revise my guess downward. I doubt that more than 10% of LRC's regular users/posters (those who post at least 2x/mo, to use another's criterion of "regular") would be capable of breaking 18:00 at this time. And even 10% seems high to me.