NXN - Alexa 1st, Cranny 2nd, Baxter 3rd

I definitely agree that Baxter's mileage is what did her in. 45 miles per week will not giver her the aerobic strength to pull away from the likes of Efraimson and Cranny. With some more miles in her legs, she might have had the strength to break them in the 2nd mile.

Nevertheless, she has stayed injury free...and there is no doubt that this conservative approach will benefit her for future development.

kool wrote:

DaveyGuy wrote:

Humm... So one course is all uphill with wind in your face with hay bales and another course is down hill with wind at your back it is all the same?

If that's how you interpreted my statement then you're dumb.

So what are you saying? You said the the difficulty does not change the facts.

I say the do. Some courses are more difficult than others and will result in a slower time.

The result of the boys' race, where only one boy broke the course record, and only by a few seconds, confirms that what the top three girls did (breaking the previous record by 30-37 seconds) was very special. This was a "fast" day in the history of the course but not drastically so.

There have never been three American high school girls in one national championship race who could have run as fast as these three did today. This is a case where the pre-race hype was justified and thanks to all three for that.

That was an impressive race. Alexa is a monster talent. Baxter seemed frustrated she couldn't break away. Cranny was aggressive and seemed to have the best form. She seems to have the most upside. With that finish, it's not ridiculous to think Alexa could not have won the NCAA's that were in Terre Haute last month. A lot of women will be running with Baxter in college races. I wonder how well she will handle it.

19jay63 wrote:

Didn't look to be all about fun for Baxter in her recent Flotrack interview after she missed her course record by 3 seconds in her last race.

She was pissed.

Losing this race after coming in undefeated for her whole high school career in XC? I doubt she calls this fun. Probably quite upset she wasn't better prepared. Doubt 4 years of college will change that perspective.

When will coaches stop blaming high mileage for burning out their runners early or having them peak in high school (see FM girls peak early thread)?

It is bruising intervals run too fast that burns out runners not high mileage.

You make it sound like she will regret not running more mileage in her senior year of high school, for the rest of her life. Do you actually believe that?

troglodyte wrote:

That was an impressive race. Alexa is a monster talent. Baxter seemed frustrated she couldn't break away. Cranny was aggressive and seemed to have the best form. She seems to have the most upside. With that finish, it's not ridiculous to think Alexa could not have won the NCAA's that were in Terre Haute last month. A lot of women will be running with Baxter in college races. I wonder how well she will handle it.

Baxter will get faster and improve greatly at Oregon.

Cranny got too confident and gave away some of her energy waiting to pass Baster, instead of taking control of the race early on and making a long drive for the finish. That way she could have tested their strength and had more chance to win.

Efraimson was lucky in that regard, and made the most of her preparation with her kick.

So where can one watch the finish of this race? It's been days.

atrrunner wrote:

So where can one watch the finish of this race? It's been days.

Dyestat.

Runnerspace has the whole race, and you can bump ahead.

atrrunner wrote:

So where can one watch the finish of this race? It's been days.

math is always your friend wrote:

Runnerspace has the whole race, and you can bump ahead.

And turn off the sound. You'll need to.

a link

well then how about wrote:

a link

Immortal Lobster wrote:

This do you guys really believe a 4:47 miler can only run 2:17 for 800 if so she is capable of shattering american records in the 5 10 half and full

4:49.33 for 1600 meters, actually, although your point is well taken. But even better: How likely is it that someone who has run 10:06.74 for 3200 meters can't crack 2:17.48 in the 800? Well, let's take a similarly excellent time for a boy -- say 8:50 -- and do the math:

137.48/606.74 = x/530

x = 2:00.09

Now, what are the chances that an 8:50 kid can't break two minutes for the 800 going all-out? Effectively zero.

Nonetheless, people asking about Baxter's rate of improvement have reason to be concerned. Her personal bests at the end of her freshman year were 4:53.23 and 10:13.00. Since then she's trimmed only 3.90 and 6.26 seconds respectively from these marks, and in fact ran her 1600 best as a sophomore. Saying that she's rarely even challenged is not enough to explain this plateau, and neither is her "low" mileage of (if people here are armed with correct info) 45 a week. She will likely enjoy a significant if unspectacular jump in performance next year and again plateau ending up as an outstanding but not out-of-this-world collegian with marks in the range of 9:15 for 3K, 15:35 for 5K and 32:25 for 10K.

Yeah can't really believe that Efrainsom took down the G O A T Baxter in this race. Not sure if she just had a great race and Baxter a poor race or what but props to Efrainsom for taking down the G O A T on a cold and freezing day in Portland Oregon.

they call me flopro wrote:

Yeah can't really believe that Efrainsom took down the G O A T Baxter in this race. Not sure if she just had a great race and Baxter a poor race or what but props to Efrainsom for taking down the G O A T on a cold and freezing day in Portland Oregon.

Baxter is no longer GOAT. There is a reason 3 out of the 4 Flotrack/Milesplit pundits were picking Efraimson to win that race. Alexa is just a better runner now. Is that so hard to comprehend? When I watched the Efraimson's WOW video last week I was blow away. That NXN did not stand a chance. Efraimson's form and power reminds me of Jenny Simpson. My first thought was this girl is closing the gap on Mary Cain quickly. Based on her workouts she is likely in ~4:10 1500 shape right now. That is equivalent or better than what Mary Cain was running in her 2012-2013 indoor campaign when she won the US indoor championships. Efraimson seems to have a very good coach, unfortunately, he is not Al Sal. Alexa will not have the resources or the pro schedule Cain enjoyed last winter.

Cranny is a sexy lady

Saggy Surprise wrote:

Cranny is a sexy lady

Agreed... lol

Woody Allen wrote:

This tells the story of what happened in the last part of the race.

800M PR's

Alexa Efraimson: 2:07

Elise Cranny: 2:08

Sarah Baxter: 2:17

I have the greatest respect for Sarah baxter's accomplishments but if and when she goes Pro she will have to run the Marathon; a 2:17 800M is too slow to compete Internationally at the 5K...even 10K.

correct. baxter is like amber trotter: a one-gear endurance grinder extraordinaire. she's a workhorse, not a racehorse. baxter is one runner who will not benefit from four years of college indoor and outdoor track. she should skip it all and just spend a couple years working up to where she can start training like desi davilla. the best she can hope for in track is to be a decent, front-pack 10k girl who can't close out a race and thus will not be on many podiums. baxter's only hope is the marathon. but, i have my doubts about that because she's a bit of a pounder, and less-than-stellar mechanics add up to injury when the mileage is above 100mile/week.

on a crazy note, she is long, strong and well put together. she actually has a body you can make an outstanding triathlete out of. olympic triathlete in 10 years?

cranny's the one who's going to kill it in ncaa xc. perfect xc body. when she gets super fit, it will be scary.