TYLER,THECREATOR wrote:
HE AIN'T GOT ANY ENDURANCE. THAT WAS PROVEN IN HIS HALF MARATHON LOSS TO BEKELE. MO FARAH'S ONLY HOPE OF WINNING A MARATHON MAJOR IS A 2:07+ RACE THAT'S SIMILAR TO HIS TRACK SIT AND KICK WINS.
Maybe he'll become like Stephen Kiprotich, who doesn't have an amazing PB, but gets medals.
He's reportedly "plotting" a sub-2 hour marathon. He's obviously either taking PEDs or high on drugs of another variety
forget mo
to run a 2"00'00 you woud probably need to be able to run a 1"58'00 on a track, as the difference between track & M is at least 2'00 ( even for berlin )
now, there is a physical limit to how good your endurance can get & that is probably what tergat had on the track
his 5k/10k ratio is best i can envisage ever & he was worth maybe 12'45/26'20 in '97 in perfect races
that's a ratio of 12'45/26'20 = 0.484
to get the profile of a likely 2"00'00 "berlin" guy, we need the line of fit which yields a 1"58'00 & has a 0.484 ratio difference between 5k/10k times
after a coupla minutes of inputing the line is :
53.6 / 1"58'00 ->
3'35.4
7'25.9
12'41.7
26'13.5
57'14
( add 1'00 to 1/2M to get a road one - sammy/zedster were already that fast at 1/2M !!! )
even to my surprise, it's not that shocking !?
beforehand, i thought it woud need absolutely worst of intrinsic 26-flat speed, but you can do it with more-or-less present 10k wr ability
it woud need a guy who off M training had
~ = current 10k wr ability whose endurance extended perfectly from 10k to M
the caveat is gonna be the toughest part of the proposition
going back to sammy/zedster
( & i'd throw in geoffey mutai/gilbert who both ran sub-59 in abu dhabi ( around that geography ) off a jog for the 1st 5k early this year )
the pre-requisite for a 2"00'00 road have already been achieved by 4 or 5 guys ( a 1/2M quick enough ) but we havn't had the "quantum leap" from 1/2M to M - endurance not lasting "perfectly" to full M off 1/2M ability, but i don't think it's that far out of reach
He ran 58:59 for the HM which converts to a high 2:02 marathon assuming he holds 96% of his speed from the half to the full marathon.
Of course the question is this. Is it possible to carry 96% of speed from the Half to the Full if you are running 57:15 for the HM? In other words -- can the human body store enough Glycogen at that pace? You either need to be burning fat or carry more Glycogen.
Well, the shocking part in the line of fit is not the 10k WR ability but the ability to better HM record by over a minute...a lot of training to be done but right now Mo struggles to even beat 60. His London dropout half was full gas and his great north performance was full gas as well.
His legs were empty, he was trippin down that downhill. A runner with reserve in the legs and lungs goes more aggressively into downhills and most importantly, keeps form.
So he basically has to go from 60 flat -> 57 low HM. His training has not been suited to the marathon, it was track training aiming for a fast finish but his mileage limit has been reached. Only levers left are the sessions itself and the intensity.
Most critical thing is changing his metabolism from a glycogen driven, highly lactate tolerant engine to a fatty acid consuming marathon diesel.
M.C. Confusing wrote:The only places where Farah has made improvements under Salazar are his foot speed, he now has the most wicked kick in the world, and his 1500. That is really it....
yeah
just a trifling
3'28.8
...
ukathleticscoach wrote:
mdsj1970 wrote:He doesn't have the 10000m times of either Geb or Bekele to justify 2:03.
Neither has Kipsang
impress me for 1st time ever
what coud kip have run a 10k in ??
If Kipsang ran a good condition 10k road race instead of berlin (meaning full marathon training and 2:03 shape) it would have been right around 27 flat.
Ventolin, it is obvious you're going to say that Kipsang could have run about 26:25 or so.
Not A Duck wrote:
Ventolin, it is obvious you're going to say that Kipsang could have run about 26:25 or so.
No way, his 400 speed is around 53.xx and his Marathon shape 2:03:00 at very best conditions without tactical race.
MrGambinus wrote:
Not A Duck wrote:Ventolin, it is obvious you're going to say that Kipsang could have run about 26:25 or so.
No way, his 400 speed is around 53.xx and his Marathon shape 2:03:00 at very best conditions without tactical race.
Are you ventolin? If not, you're not even replying to what I am asserting.
MrGambinus wrote:If Kipsang ran a good condition 10k road race instead of berlin (meaning full marathon training and 2:03 shape) it would have been right around 27 flat.
eliud got thoroughly walloped & he had a fleeting 10k career when he ran 26'49 in a somewhat tactical 10k back in '07 - probably about 26'40 back then & he has actually been more serious for 10k last coupla years but races were sh!t ( but speed still decent - ran a 12'51 coupla years back )
i go back to geb '07
26'52 / 2"04'26
( & that 10k was not great, but better effort than the M )
do the maths for 2"03'23...
MrGambinus wrote:No way, his 400 speed is around 53.xx and his Marathon shape 2:03:00 at very best conditions without tactical race.
eh ???
you waaaaaaaaaaay underss-estimate what the realms of that basic speed can do - & kip has likely better endurance than following - 2"03'23 evidence i bring to the table
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4203011&page=2I want to give you some data (not opinions) about all my athletes able running under 27' :
Nicholas Kemboi (26'30"03) able to finish last 600m in Bruxelles 2003 in 1'23", almost beating Haile (26'29"87), could run in about 51"5
Ahmed Hassan (26'38" in the same race) NEVER could run faster than 53"5 / 54"
Imane Merga (26'48" this year) able to finish in 53"5 in 5000m last year, can run 400m near 51", not faster
Moses Mosop (26'49") finished last lap in WCh 2005 (bronze medal) faster than Kenenisa and Sileshi (53"4 for him, but was only 5th at the bell). He NEVER can run near 52"
John Korir (26'52") had a speed not better than 54"
Mark Bett (26'52") could run about 51"
Wilson Kiprop (last year winning Kenyan Champs in altitude in 27'26" and the African Champs in 27'32" woth last lap in 55"6, that could easy run under 27' at sea level) became the WCh of HM and NEVER could run under 53"
Now, after Cova, I can tell you that nor Antibo (European Champion of 5000 / 10000 in 1990, and silver medal in 10000 in OG 1988), very fast in the last lap, neither Panetta (27'24" and WCh of 3000 steeple in 1987) could run UNDER 52" (and Antibo was one of the fastest sprinters in the last lap)
& for biggest 10k kicker of early '80s who i wouda given even money in a slow race v yifter
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4203011&page=0I want to say an anecdote. The Italian Alberto Cova won the first edition of WCH (1983, Helsinki) in 10000m with a last lap of 53.2. We were curious to see his real speed, and with his coach Giorgio Rondelli we bet about his time in a local competition of 400m one week after his victory. His result was... 52"8 !
well, then either you OR your calculator is wrong. Because it spits out 27' with given values. and IF its wrong then your whole calculation about sub 2 is wrong.
Not A Duck wrote:
Ventolin, it is obvious you're going to say that Kipsang could have run about 26:25 or so.
Liar!!!! We will not deal with you!!!
MrGambinus wrote:well, then either you OR your calculator is wrong. Because it spits out 27' with given values. and IF its wrong then your whole calculation about sub 2 is wrong.
err...
can't your peabrain just maths 2"03'23 to
26'52/2"04'26
???
Kipsang has never trained specifically for a 10k where the other runners you mention have. The engine required for a great 10k is slightly different than a marathon engine.
ventolin^3 wrote:
MrGambinus wrote:well, then either you OR your calculator is wrong. Because it spits out 27' with given values. and IF its wrong then your whole calculation about sub 2 is wrong.err...
can't your peabrain just maths 2"03'23 to
26'52/2"04'26
???
For those to lazy to calculate its a 26:39.xx
mdsj1970 wrote:Kipsang has never trained specifically for a 10k where the other runners you mention have. The engine required for a great 10k is slightly different than a marathon engine.
err...
what fuucking "specifacally" training had mo done for that 1500 ???
mako wrote:
Don't lie. He never ran 12:56 before joining Salazar's group. He ran 12:57.94, so basically 12:58 in 2010 and that was probably after he already started to dope. His previous PR was 13:07 from 2007. And he went from 3:33.98 to 3:28.81, more than 5seconds improvement under Salazar.
Alright, 12:57, not 12:56....but seriously, he ran that 12:53 LESS THAN TWO WEEKS AFTER JOINING SALAZAR. And he hasnt run faster since. So now you are saying that he has doping pre-Salazar...so where does the whole Salazar/Nike thing work out now?
Yes, he has jumped from 3:33 to 3:28 in the 1500....he hasnt really improved in the 3k or 5k, and the 10k doesnt count as he had only run it 3 times ever. I should have said speed rather than kick. He has gotten a lot speedier without actually becoming a better 5k or 10k runner...just now has better kicks to win those slow championship races.