10,000m WR Progression: A Microcosm of How the EPO Era Changed the Sport

9) In 1987 we had WCh in Rome. Paul Kipkoech was the winner, with Panetta second, showing a new way of running : changing pace several time during the first part of the race (such as David Bedford in 1971, with the difference David alternated 1 lap in 62" with one in 70", while other runners ran even in 66" two following laps, so at the end he was not able to create any gap), launching long fast efforts in the second part of the race. Same tactic in OG 1988 in Seoul, from Ngugi in 5000m (he broke the group with one km in 2'32" far from the finish line).

10) Due to the raising performances of Kenyan runners, all the organisers wanted the best Kenyans in their meeting, paying good appearances, so their life became less naive and more professional. At the same time, that was the period when big managers appeared, firs Kim McDonald, and they forced organisers to accept other unknown kenyans in their races, in order to have the best, already known. This fact provoked increase of interest in running as professional in Kenya at first, and immediately after same thing happened in Ethiopia, also if in this case the main organisation was their Federation.

11) Kenyans started to have more continuity in training, and professional coaches started to work with them, making their training more effective. About Marathon, the Italian Gabriele Rosa was the first thinking to develop their potential for the event, organising many training camps, where Kenyans (many of them without food at home) could not only train better, but also eat in right way and in right quantity.

12) Ethiopians started to follow at the beginning of '90, but the real skip of quality came with Haile Gebrselassie. He could develop himself in the best way, driven by one of the most expert and passionated managers, Jos Hermens, who was himself a top runner (WR of 1 hour with 20,944, and 27'24" in 10,000m, without a great talent, but training 3-4 times per day) and gave the right mentality to the great Ethiopian. Having on one side Kenyans (Sigei at first, Paul Tergat and Paul Koech later) and on the other side Haile, with also the participation of Salah Hissou, every year 1 or 2 attempts against the WR were a must, and organisers assigned big budget to the event (almost like during the last years for 100m), creating in several cases DUELS based not on competitions face to face, but on times (good rabbits for records). This fact provoked a big general improvement in the all-time lists of the event, because times before a limit as 27' became very usual for 6-10 athletes in the same race, due to the right even pace and the fact there was no tactic at all, apart running fast.

13) If you can have some doubt for the performances BEFORE 2001, soon after it was possible to find EPO in direct way with antidoping. After the WR of 3000 steeple of Boulami in Zurich (2002), cancelled because he was positive for EPO, IAAF put the rule no WR in distances longer than 800m could be ratified, without specific blood test for detecting EPO.

And the final WR of Bekele were in 2003 and 2004 and 2005, when this type of control was a must.

14) Today we have more than 1000 professional runners in Kenya (or, better, 1000 hoping to be professional, because 90% of them are not able to earn money for changing their life), around the world, and about 300 in Ethiopia. The most part of them look at Marathon and, generally, road races, because for long distances track is over, at the moment. 10000m are too long for going in TV, and also 5000m are less frequent in the current meeting. Under this point of view, Diamond League is the death of long distances on track. Instead, 30 years ago there were 30 kenyans and no Ethiopians in the circuit. And, if we agree that black Africans living in altitude are the best talented for the event of endurance, we can'b be surprised that WR improved so much from periods without their participation.

Renato Canova wrote:

6) In 1972, Ethiopia showed its first top track runner, already 32 years old, Miruts Yifter, going to 27'41" in 10000m with a 4th place

Yifter actually won bronze medal in 72 olympics. And also according to the 10000m video:

There were 3 runners group with Viren,Puttemans and Yifter and they all had to go to the outside lane to pass that kenyan. And no one of those fall down. So Yifter simply faded, not yet as strong that he would eventually become.

But Yifter 1977-1980 was very much stronger. He won both 5000 and 10000 in 1977 and 1979 World Cups and in 1980 olympics. In 1977 World Cup 5000m final Yifter won in 13:13.82 just missing the world record by 1 sec (Quax 13:12.86) and the last lap for Yifter was 53+ so it's reasonable to think he could go close 13:00 already back then. And the funny thing is that he was quite old age about 40 in his best form.

And the final WR of Bekele were in 2003 and 2004 and 2005, when this type of control was a must.

no passport

you just stop taking it 3 days before

hermens runs a doping ring

Fact: The best road cyclists in the world (and in the US) were boosting their blood through EPO, transfusions, or both from about 1991-2006. Just wait until the list of 1998 Tour de France EPO positives comes out in the next week or so.

Why would long distance running be any different?

/end of topic

never mind the men's 10,000, you can see the EPO effect and the transfusion effect in all distance event progressions.

Women's marathon is the most obvious, where the WR improved by leaps and bounds until 1985 - the last year transfusions were legal - and then hit a brick wall that would not be broken until 1998.

The men's 5000 WR inched toward sub-13 and then Aouita, last of the great early 80's dopers, finally got there in 1987, after which nobody got near 13 until Gebreselassie.

Look at the men's 1500 - 3:29's by Coe and Aouita, then no sub-3:30's for the next 5 years until Morceli.

What did Kipketer and Coe have that nobody else had? Between 1979 and 1985, the WL was under 1:42.50 four times. Transfusions got banned, and between 1986 and 1993, nobody broke 1:42.50. Along comes EPO and the WL drops back to sub-1:42.50 five times from 1994-2002.

women's 5000. WR advances by leaps and bounds until 1986 when Kristiansen is just a little bit better than Zola Budd. Then suddenly the WL falls back to around 15 flat for several years, nobody beats Kristiansen until 1995.

The years between 1986 and 1993 are the elephant in the room of athletics. Everyone points to 90's performances as a sign of rampant doping, but they ignore the equally damning evidence against the early 80's. After 1986, athletes got slower and stayed slower, across the board. If all the 90's greats have an asterisk by their name, so should all those 1978-1985 superstars.

its clear what happened given the timeline

track exploded when they got epo in the early 90s

If you do a statistical analysis of 10000m world records since 1937 the long-term trend indicate that the record should be around 25:54.

It probably would be if the 10000m was run more aggressively, more often.

The most significant improvements were between 1953 and 1965 and 1992 and 1998.

I think that your arguments are compelling. I'm not trolling in anyway. I also think that it's ironic that someone who has been in the sport for as long as Canova has, doesn't get respected when he claims to not know of doping. That's what I love about let's run. Not a lot of actual dialogue, just two sides screaming at each other and refusing to entertain what the other side is saying. I think that your argument is quite compelling. I also think that when Canova explains things that he makes some very important points as well. There's an answer somewhere in there but I'm not sure that either you or Canova are 100% correct. I will say that I really respect canova and I like that he comes on here even though he gets bashed and yet he still comes on here. He's done a lot for running.

Thanks a lot for this very detailed analysis of the situation. Almost everything you have written seems absolutely plausibel to me.

Only to the stats: as already someone has mentioned, Yifter for sure has won the Bronce in Munich and without checking the tape, I can't remember anything in the last lap which has changed the resultat. And Yifter's PB before the games definitely was not just 29:21, as he at least has run the distance 3 times under 29, with a PB (as far as I know) of 28:45 from a meeting in Athens in June '72.

But it's not a question that the use of EPO (and of PEDs in general) also has had an effect is for sure.

What is missing from the analysis are controls for other factors. If you could identify performances at a level below likely doping, you could see how factors like interest in the sport boosted performances, for example. An assumption could be made that no more than 1,000 runners are doped for the 10,000m, so then the 1,001st fastest runner of each year could set the baseline. It's still not perfect, as it doesn't capture the effect of big money bonuses for world records during this period, but it would be very interesting to see.

I want to tell you a story I lived in 2003, and this is the reason because I don't believe top African are doped.

From the end of June, I was in Switzerland for training with a group of Kenyans, one month in Davos, another month in St. Moritz. We had special rates from the organiser of a competition in Davos for all the period, as payment for the participation of some of my best athletes in a road race by night in Davos, at that time very important for local people.

With all the group, we had one big apartment with 3 bedrooms and kitchen. The athletes cooked themselves ugali and vegetables, sometimes going to eat some meat in the restaurant.

The group had the following athletes, all Kenyans apart the Ugandan Dorcus Inzikuru :

Nicholas Kemboi, Moses Mosop, Albert Chepkurui (Ahmed Hassan with Qatar), Augustin Choge, James Kwalia, David Kilel, Abel Cheruiyot, Florence Barsosio, Dorcus Inzikuru.

Having 2 girls, one room was for them, and we used the other two bedrooms. I was with Nicholas, Moses Mosop, James Kwalia and David Kilel, so I know very well what they ate, they drank, and their behavior.

I was already their coach, but till 2002 I could go Kenya only two weeks every 2 months about, because of my official role of Technical Scientific Director of the Italian Federation.

During these 2 weeks, I tried to teach something new to the athletes, changing their attitude in training, going to some more scientific training replacing the traditional "naive" Kenyan system. But, apart the time we were together, the only thing I could do was to give them training programs, hoping they could follow in the right way.

When finally we had the opportunity to work together, I could discover a lot of newe infos about the guys I never had before. For example, about Nicholas.

He ran in Hengelo, at the beginning of June, his first 10000m in 28'19", and had a PB in 5000m of 13'26" in 2001.

Never was able to finish fast, so I had the idea he was without speed. On the other side, in March 2003 he ran his first HM in Lisbon in 60:31 without any specific training, so I looked immediately at him like marathon runner.

In Davos, I discovered he had little training, so, thank to all the group, I used July for putting that volume, both on the roads and on track, that never they used in Kenya.

One day, I gave a workout of 5 sets of 600/500/400/300/200m with 2:00 recovery among tests and 5:00 among sets, about times as 1'35" - 1'18" - 61" - 44" and 27". In the last test of the last set, I asked everybody to run at their max speed, thinking James Kwalia could run under 25". James was in front of the group, and when he started Nicholas was still more than 10m behind. Of course, I clocked on the start of Kwalia. Nicholas started to close the gap with all the others in the turn, and in the last 100m practically overtook everybody, finishing in front of Kwalia. My time was 24"2 with Kwalia's start and Nicholas finish, that means Nicholas ran in about 23". So, I casually discovered he was fast, but he didn't know.

I changed his training, and in Zurich (15th Aug) almost won the race against Kibowen with 13'01"04. So, I was sure he can run 26'40" in Bruxelles, against Haile, because his training of endurance, such as for Ahmed Hassan and Moses Mosop, was very good.

We had still almost 3 weeks before Bruxelles, for doing the last specific workouts, with him, Albert and Moses.

We went Bruxelles, and Nicholas and Albert were able to stay for 8 km with the best Haile, who was looking for a new WR but, when after 8 km saw one unknown athlete (Nicholas) and another in big improvement (Albert) decided to reduce his speed, going for 2 laps in 69", fearing to lose the race more than hoping to beat his WR.

At 9 km Albert was not able to follow the progression of Haile and Nicholas (1'25" last 600m), and Nicholas didn't win because of a tactical mistake (he tried to attack in the last turn), losing from Haile for 81/100 (26'29"22 against 26'30"03). Ahmed Hassan was 3rd in 26'38"76, and the young Mosop (only 18) ran 27'13"66, the best time ever for an athlete of that age.

This means it's possible to run so fast COMPLETELY CLEAN, without using any legal supplement, too, and also without being top champions. For example, in that group Albert Chepkurui didn't have high speed, and also didn't have big endurance, but was one of few Kenyans showing continuity in training and professional behavior (also because of the support of Qatar Federation, which the others didn't have).

What you never consider is that, during a career, training can change very much, following a graduality in increasing volume and intensity, that is the main reason for the improvement of the performances.

Everytime you speak about doping, as main reason of some improvement, YOU SUPPOSE ALL THE OTHER SITUATION AROUND THE ATHLETE ARE THE SAME : same life, same motivation, same dedication, same food, same health, SAME TRAINING. Only if all the other factors are the same, when an athlete improves we can think can use some external aid.

But the reality in athletics, especially when we speak about African runners, young as career, is totally different : THE MAIN REASON OF ANY IMPROVEMENT IS A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN TRAINING (due to the age, or to find a coach, or to go in a camp, or to finish the school, or to have some economic support), that instead, in the small brain of the most part of posters, seems not to have any influence.

Les wrote:

Only exception was Bob Kennedy, who, like Regina Jacobs mysteriously dropped out of the 2000 Olympics after EPO testing was announced..

Bob Kennedy didn't even make the US olympic team in 2000.

He never dropped out of the olympics.

He was in a bad car accident that made him miss 6 weeks of training before the olympic trials.

Never was the same after that.

Exactly. The past year has revealed that there has been almost no out of competition testing in Kenya and that there is access to PEDs. Being clean for competition does not mean that no one is using. Similarly, The Men's Marathon progression of the past 13 years is outrageous. Saying there is more money in Marathon, less in 10,000 is BS. There has been big money in Marathons for 30 years, and in far more of them than 10ks on the track. But yet, Marathons are dramatically faster and deeper now, especially from countries with little out of competition testing. Many Marathons are not even doing competition testing for more than a few athletes. All these "spit in the face of science" arguments are amusing. PEDs boost whatever level an athlete is at.

Citizen Runner wrote:

Not to speak for the other poster and I don't know the precise timeline, but without out of competition testing the EPO test is trivially easy to beat. The degree of OOC testing varies greatly across national bodies even today.

Thank you for the insightful post Coach Canova. I believe the lowering of the records is due in part to the increased viability for runners in countries like Kenya and Ethiopia to make a living in the sport. They are only just beginning to show their true potential. The next Rudisha or Bekele is a junior runner now getting ready to emerge. We haven't seen the limits to how fast these athletes can run.

I Want To Believe wrote:

Exactly. The past year has revealed that there has been almost no out of competition testing in Kenya and that there is access to PEDs

I'm pretty sure there was a big name Kenya who had an out of competition infraction back in the 90s.

Besides, if there were countries where out of competition testing didn't exist, wouldn't dopers from all coutries in all events flock there?

yamaybe wrote:

the east africans took off like rockets when they got epo

30-45 seconds boost over 10000m

now they slowing down again with better testing

There not slowing down in the marathon. They've 10,000 runners just shifted to the marathon where the money is.

I don't think the 10,000 is a good event to talk about at all because it takes a lot of training to run the 10,000. Well it takes a lot to run any event but how many African runners could really afford to train for it when the sport was amateur. Also you need pace makers and there aren't many record attempts so in the amateur era, a world record attempt was probably different than it was when there was some big money in the 10,000 (now gone).

That being said, in the 2nd month the website existed - or maybe first, I used the big drop in records to say EPO usage was widespread:

But i was arguing across events.

Did lots of people take EPO? Yes.

Augusto E. Perez wrote:

I'm pretty sure there was a big name Kenya who had an out of competition infraction back in the 90s.

Besides, if there were countries where out of competition testing didn't exist, wouldn't dopers from all coutries in all events flock there?

You mean like all the elite runners that travel to kenya each year to train at altitude?

800 analyzer wrote:

In other news, water is wet. Details at 11.

Actually, decent analysis but I think you are preaching to the choir here.

Breaking news for you. Water isn't wet. Wet is a state of being caused by a water or another liquid.

THIS IS THE TOUR DE FRANCE ALL OVER AGAIN. BEST BELIEVE THAT THEY ALL GET CONVINCED THAT ITS DOPE OR LOSE. MONEY TALKS END OF DISCUSSION.