Most likely True.
Most likely True.
I don't know much about Derick and True, but feel Ritzenhein may jeopardize his own chances if he doesn't run his own race in an attempt to make things easier on Rupp, as Rupp is his training partner.
I think if Ritzenhein runs a steady pace, he can run the same times as Rupp (I understand he hasn't done it, but I think he can). But Rupp is capable of a superior "stop and go" performance.
the highlander wrote:
After reading the article and thinking about things a lot- I think that Ritz is going to go home unhappy. Lets take a poll- what do you all think?
Ritz only goes home if he's injured.
I say True goes home.
True will take a spot unless he's off the back with 300 to go.
Ritz....it won't be pretty
Sorry, but no matter the splits, Ritz is not capable of times like 26:48.
The only logical reason for your argument is age.
Rupp made huge improvements. Before that Ritz was beating him at world championship meets. And despite the big improvements Rupp made, Ritz STILL has a better 5k, even though he doesn't have a kick.
But I suppose the argument could be made that Ritz is old enough that a big improvement is less likely.
Stuff you like to pee out wrote:
Its a championship race. It'll go out slow. No way it goes out fast.
I hate this kind of thinking. Who says championship races have to be slow? If I'm Ritz, I think I have a better chance at making the team if it's a fast race. So why on God's green earth would I sit around in a slow race and hope I suddenly develop a ferocious kick before the last lap starts?
Sure, it's hard to win from the front, but it's not impossible (and he doesn't have to win, just be top 3), and I think Ritz's odds are better doing that than by waiting for the bell and praying.
* wrote:
LM wrote:Sure, but what are the chances a 26:48 guy who has closed several 53 laps in championship races gets outkicked by some 13:0x runners/27 low guys not known for kicking.
Well, things can happen in 25 laps.
Let's say his stomach is bothering that day or he has a cold.
Or a blister flares up. He gets tripped.
It doesn't take things to go very wrong to throw you off in a race that long.
If he feels Ok , there should be no concern.
Why did K Bekele DNF at WC's 3 weeks before running 26:43?
I'd agree with that, but I would say that would be fairly near to what I would consider a disaster. It's not impossible to imagine such a situation occuring.
As far as KB...that one is harder to say. He may have just felt like it wasn't worth racing if he wasn't feeling good and in it to win it, and it's hard to know just how much he improved in 3 weeks, but iirc he talked like his fitness was rapidly improving around and after WC time.
Ritz is out. His foot speed is pretty bad. Especially if the pace is slow to start he will get burned up the 400m. All these guys are great runners. Its too bad to see one of them get left out but thats the way it is.
Have to say Ritz will lose out here - he's not good enough to force the pace and not enough of a kicker to win a tactical race. Plus...he has a lot of bad races. lots of good ones too, but he just isn't consistent.
True is a gamer - guy has been getting after it. Derrick too.
I think Rupp Derrick True.
Since 2001, Ritz has qualified for every World team--track, XC, roads--for which he has tried with the exception of the marathon in 2012. And there he was coming off of two years of injuries, and yet he managed to run a marathon PR and just miss by 8 seconds. The guy is money and is one tough SOB.
agip wrote:
Have to say Ritz will lose out here - he's not good enough to force the pace and not enough of a kicker to win a tactical race. Plus...he has a lot of bad races. lots of good ones too, but he just isn't consistent.
True is a gamer - guy has been getting after it. Derrick too.
I think Rupp Derrick True.
Sorry if this was already stated, but I only read the first page:. None of them will be devastated if they lose to other quality professionals. Are in great shape and know how the game is played. Should be fun to watch.
the highlander wrote:
After reading the article and thinking about things a lot- I think that Ritz is going to go home unhappy. Lets take a poll- what do you all think?
Is there a way they all lose the race?
good points, but then he didn't do that well in the 10k at London2012 , nor did he do well at London marathon (2:10), or NYC marathon 2006, beijing olympics he did mediocre not great...point is that he has had some flubs in big, big races. I love the guy - he seems to me one of the few pros who would be running 100 mpw even if he were a hobby jogger. He's honest and hardworking and decent. I just worry about him on the big stages.
Montesquieu wrote:
Since 2001, Ritz has qualified for every World team--track, XC, roads--for which he has tried with the exception of the marathon in 2012. And there he was coming off of two years of injuries, and yet he managed to run a marathon PR and just miss by 8 seconds. The guy is money and is one tough SOB.
agip wrote:Have to say Ritz will lose out here - he's not good enough to force the pace and not enough of a kicker to win a tactical race. Plus...he has a lot of bad races. lots of good ones too, but he just isn't consistent.
True is a gamer - guy has been getting after it. Derrick too.
I think Rupp Derrick True.
I'll break convention and continue to insist that I don't know about Derick and True.
A lot of people are suggesting Rupp is a lock. Like Webb was a lock in 2008.
I agree that he's the favorite. There's no lock.
If anyone doesn't make it, I'd be most surprised about Ritz. I couldn't see Ritz underestimating the competition. I'm not saying that Rupp will do that, but Ritz wouldn't be caught dead doing that.
Agreed--he has been up and down at World/Olympic events, but my point had to do with getting to those events. Another thing to consider, and I hate to seem as if I'm beating the drum, is that whenever he has been healthy (high school, early years of college, 2007, and especially 2009) he has run amazingly well. When we look at him it's easy to focus on his "mediocre" races. But when he has been healthy and able to stitch more than one year of training together, he has been sensational (27:22 in warm weather, 12:56, 60:00). So, I look at the 2009 Ritz as the kind of runner he really is, and for the first time since then we have him back. The weather is a wild card in Des Moines, so who knows what will happen, but sometime this summer Ritz will do something that will make us say "holy" and then quote Clay Davis.
agip wrote:
good points, but then he didn't do that well in the 10k at London2012 , nor did he do well at London marathon (2:10), or NYC marathon 2006, beijing olympics he did mediocre not great...point is that he has had some flubs in big, big races.
I love the guy - he seems to me one of the few pros who would be running 100 mpw even if he were a hobby jogger. He's honest and hardworking and decent. I just worry about him on the big stages.
Montesquieu wrote:Since 2001, Ritz has qualified for every World team--track, XC, roads--for which he has tried with the exception of the marathon in 2012. And there he was coming off of two years of injuries, and yet he managed to run a marathon PR and just miss by 8 seconds. The guy is money and is one tough SOB.
Webb was not a lock to make the team in 2008. He was out of shape / hurt, dropping out of races in the early season and it was a mad dash to get in shape before the trials.
Rupp has been healthy -- he's going for his 5th straight US Title at 10,000m. Before that, he was 2nd two years.
Agip - Ritz has been consistent. He may not have met your expectations, but he rarely bombs. Those 2:10 marathons were basically PR races. The Beijing marathon was a PR in heat. The London 10k -- he was in what -- 27:3x shape in a good effort. He wasn't going to run 27:3x with a sub 4 / 4 ish last mile. This was accomplished during a season with an injury.
He's run 13:09 while partially focused on a fall marathon...
He also has the benefit of NOT being at the mercy of Rupp. Those other guys are merely toys in whatever game Rupp decides to play. Ritz, on the other hand, can have Rupp work for or with him (like last year).
thirty two wrote:
Sorry, but no matter the splits, Ritz is not capable of times like 26:48.
He was when he ran his 12:56...Isn't now...would not be surprised if he was in 27:00-27:10 shape if he's continued to improve since his 13:09.
stick with eharmony wrote:
rupp wont even finish 6th.
There is that danger. The temperatures and pollen counts expected for the races are not those where Rupp does well.