King of the swamp wrote:
Anybody else think that all the posts started this year about cain (and there have been many many) have been started by her father and/or her coach?
What's wrong with that
King of the swamp wrote:
Anybody else think that all the posts started this year about cain (and there have been many many) have been started by her father and/or her coach?
What's wrong with that
lost in Boston wrote:
Agreed - it's a great run.
However, most great young athletes don't go on to be great senior athletes. Some do, most don't.
The hyperbolic praise and overblown expectations are a lot of the reason why most don't.
This is more like it. 'Weak endurance' but 'lots of raw speed'. This is typical of young prodigies. Tons of dumb hard-ass workouts, and SFA genuine base. She will be a failure at senior level just like 95% of all the other youth superstars. Sad, but true.
havana wrote:
Great run from the Serbian to get Silver.
Yay "American born" runners.
this cain girl has the raw materials to be a true world-class american 1500/5k star over the next 15 years.
tremendous run and to destroy the American 1500m high school record as a sophomore (just after her sophomore year and just after turning 16), a record that is itself far better than the mile record, is amazing, but at the same time expected, because most of us could tell that this was not your usual hs phenom but more of a Mary Decker type 800/1500m talent. On the one hand, the record was nowhere near world class, in contrast to Gallagher's record at 800m, which Wilson is within a second of, but on the other hand, speed arrives early but endurance late, so this is very strong, and Cain may very well break 2 in the 800m before she's done with high school.
Now Kipyegon is great already but we don't know her true age, the Serbian is already 19, we don't know the real age of the other Kenyan and Ethiopian, and Judd is almost 1 1/2 years older than Cain. But Judd is obviously a fantastic prospect, almost equally as good (faster at 8/15 right now, but older: I don't know what her 400m speed is like).
Jody Possibllesito wrote:
Since she ran a 4:11.01 - isn't that close enough to 4:10.99 to call it a 4:10? I mean we are only talking 2/100s of a second! Sheeeeshh!
Close enough to call it 4:11.
Cain was spiked early in the race. Add in the fact she was in lane 2-3 for a bit of the race. Sub 4:10 easily. She definitely had a 4:08 high in her.
Mary's coaches are all very smart, conservative coaches. Jim Mitchell is known for low mileage and almost all of his girls running their best as seniors.
Now Ed Stickles coaches her. Stickles is a graduate of SUNY Cortland and ran under Jack Daniels - who he remains very good friends with. Ed is a Daniels guy all the way. This girl is not over raced nor is she over trained. She almost always runs less than 40 miles a week.
That is an incredible run, but remember that it is very difficult for most girls to improve from 16 - 20. They develop hips and breasts which don't help at all. Often, girls will run fastest just before full puberty sets in. The biggest goal with her is to remain positive even though she doesn't improve and maybe gets a little slower in the next few years. Often, females will start to improve again in their mid 20s when their strength catches up to their new weight.
The odds are heavily stacked against any young runner achieving world class times no matter what their achievements as a junior. But there are good counterexamples. Mary Decker Slaney is one. Suzy Favor Hamilton is another, and her reputation is still clean as far as I can tell. These were certainly elite 1500 meter runners, and they both were prodigies as teenagers. Suzy Favor Hamilton still holds the American junior record for the 1500m at 4:09.10 set at the age of 18. Do you think Mary Cain can do 2 seconds better in the next two years, and get the junior record? If she does that, what would be your opinion of the odds against her going on to break four minutes (no American runner has done that in 2011, 2012). Suzy Favor Hamilton broke four minutes 5 times with a best of 3:57.40 - doing well as a teenager didn't seem burn her out! Of course she also had 1:58.10 in the 800m, and Mary Cain has shown speed, but not that kind of speed yet.
Smart-Coaches wrote:
Mary's coaches are all very smart, conservative coaches. Jim Mitchell is known for low mileage and almost all of his girls running their best as seniors.
Now Ed Stickles coaches her. Stickles is a graduate of SUNY Cortland and ran under Jack Daniels - who he remains very good friends with. Ed is a Daniels guy all the way. This girl is not over raced nor is she over trained. She almost always runs less than 40 miles a week.
High mileage isn't a problem at that age. The problem is too much anaerobic work. This can do wonders in the short term, but not the long term.
Cain is amazing. That is one sick freakin time! I hope she takes care of herself! Her coaches should make a determination what is the best way to proceed with her that is 100% safe for her. Heck I would contact the best coaches in the world for opinions. Love to see her way healthy for the next 10 years!
LowTower wrote:
Smart-Coaches wrote:Mary's coaches are all very smart, conservative coaches. Jim Mitchell is known for low mileage and almost all of his girls running their best as seniors.
Now Ed Stickles coaches her. Stickles is a graduate of SUNY Cortland and ran under Jack Daniels - who he remains very good friends with. Ed is a Daniels guy all the way. This girl is not over raced nor is she over trained. She almost always runs less than 40 miles a week.
High mileage isn't a problem at that age. The problem is too much anaerobic work. This can do wonders in the short term, but not the long term.
Geez Louise, the Lydiard drones just can't seem to take a break. The "problem" of burn out stems from improper coaching not recognizing the appropriate balance in the different training elements. Cain's coaches sound like well qualified individuals.
If you bother read Daniels' book, you'd know he places percentage limits on the amount of speed work (threshold/tempo, VO2max intervals, repetition runs) as it relates to the total weekly mileage.
Anyways... Congrats to Miss Cain on a fabulous season.
Canada Coach wrote:
That is an incredible run, but remember that it is very difficult for most girls to improve from 16 - 20. They develop hips and breasts which don't help at all. Often, girls will run fastest just before full puberty sets in. The biggest goal with her is to remain positive even though she doesn't improve and maybe gets a little slower in the next few years. Often, females will start to improve again in their mid 20s when their strength catches up to their new weight.
Like German Fernandez? Maybe that was his problem! He developed hips and is now way slower.
Two years ago when Cain was in the eighth grade I first saw her run. 3K. She had just turned 14 and I thought she is on the road to hell. Small, thin-boned, will burn out in two years. What a shame. Superb stride and ground contact time.
I still cannot figure out how she has survived. And I still think for now she should be running shorter distances. Besides, the 800 is more ditticult to race. Running the 8 will give her more experience racing and put demands on her to concentrate on this part of running.
Mary Cain's purist approach to running was to run against the clock. Easy enough for her when she could lead wire to wire. Now that she is running in the major leagues, those days are over. Time for Mary Cain to reset her priorities -- unless I am wrong again.
She's noticeably developed over the past few years and seems to have only gotten faster. Hopefully that trend continues.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/davisave/3456057592/
vs.
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2012/06/24/sports/yRUNNER.html
and
Pics show a healthy, fit , young developing athlete in great form.
The big chunks of breakthrough will become smaller , a second a year improvement will put her at the top of the collegiate scene by the time she goes to college. She is learning she cannot win all races she runs as evidence in this last competition. Great for setting the bar and grounding her in reality.
Lets hope she ends up in program that will not over race her as a point getting machine.
Video of the race:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=bizYesRYzN4
Thank you for the link to the WJC 1500. Faith Kipyegon is one of my favorites and I am not at all confident that USA-centric NBC will cover her in London.
