Alan Webb 1500m next week. Could this be the big one?

Well if there are two heats (fast and slow), there's no reason Rupp and Farah should be ahead of Webb because Webb has run faster than them this year in the 1500m. And if you go by PR's, Webb has the faster PR, so either way he'd be ahead.

Btw was Farah supposed to be in the diamond league meet on Friday in the 3000m? I thought he was but I didn't see him on the list. Bekele is still in it though

bangalangadanga wrote:

I wouldn't get my hopes up too much about the time. If you remember last year, this was the last chance for a lot of Americans to get the Olympic A standard, and they let the pace go slow through 1100. I'll be judging Webb off his place performance most here. That said. Can Webb run 3:38 with a 2:45 at the bell?

If Webb wasn't in the race, this might be the case. However, if you ever watch Webb's races, he immediately goes to the front, and sits right on the pace maker. This is Alan Webb's bread and butter. Even in the 1500 at Payton Jordan he immediately went to the front. Therefore, although Webb may not get the "A" standard himself (Although I think he will), the fact that he will go with the pace setter will probably improve the overall performances of everyone else in the race

i kinda like running wrote:

stick with eharmony wrote:

I really dont get most of you on this site. Wheating goes 3:44 and it's great, blah blah wheating this wheating that. Webb runs 3:38 and he's washed up. ARE you freaking kidding!?

Welllll, there's a bit of a difference. That 3:44 was Wheating's first race of the year. And he won.

Webb raced indoors, and then he opened his outdoor season with a 3:54. And he hasn't won a race yet. Not even close.

All things considered, Wheating looks to be more of a contender than Webb at this point.

webb is coming back from injury, runs a bunch of races, most as workouts and is down to 3:38.

wheating runs one 3:44 coming back from injury and he's "ahead" of webb? ok. i guess because he ran a 3:30 last year instead of 2007 puts him ahead of webb too?

webb will eat this guys lunch at the trials. his superior strength is what will get him through the rounds and by the final no one will want to go near him when he runs a 3:34 for the win!

Farah is the reigning World Champion at 5,000m.

He gets in the fast heat in the 1,500m.

There are others with less name recognition that could get bumped for Webb.

Webb's 3:46 turns half a decade old this coming July. He's been nationally and internationally irrelevant during the last five years since that season. Half. A. Decade. And that's during his prime age-wise.

It's also been half a decade since he last made a national team. Half. A. Decade. And that's during his prime age-wise.

He failed to make the '08 Oly team and the '09 and '11 WC teams. And that's during his prime age-wise.

It's been the same half a decade since he last hit an Oly "A" standard at any distance.

He hasn't any closer than about 5-6 seconds of his 1500 PR in the last half a decade, and that's only been 2 or three times, as I recall.

We're only about seven weeks out from the Trials, and his best 800 is 1:51. Granted, I think that will get better over the next seven weeks, but it still is what it is.

In all my years in the sport, I've never seen anyone even come close to falling as far as Webb has and who stayed down as long as Webb has (half a decade, especially during their prime) who came back to be a shadow of their previous selves.

Webb is NOT a 3:46 miler; rather, Webb HAS BEEN a 3:46 miler and has a 3:46 PR, but Bush still had a year to go in his presidency that last time that happened. Webb IS, at his very best, about a 3:55 miler for the last five years.

The last five years is actually about half of his career as a pro. That means that for half of his career (during his prime, no less) he has been, at best, a 3:55-ish miler and he could only get to even that level once in a great while during that time.

Then again, there have been very few talents - ever - like Webb. Anyone else who compiled the "record" he has the last five years or so wouldn't even be mentioned anywhere. That we still follow him, root for him, and wish to see him return to form is just a testament to his talent and the athlete that he once was, but hasn't been for many years now.

I like what I see in Webb this year because it's progress over where he's been, and progress has been something he hasn't seen in a very long time. Whatever has happened with Webb in the past, he now seems to finally be moving forward again. That progress will come in stages, and in fits and starts. We'll see progress on the aerobic front first, then progress down distance as he gets rolling.

I think there's still more room to give. If he's running 3:38 off of only 1:51, then there's endurance there still to be converted to the kind of speed-endurance needed for the middle distances. Drop that 1:51 to even 1:47 and you'll see that 3:38 become maybe 3:34, and with more gears than has now (which is essentially only one).

Trends and patterns are much, much more important than individual performances and Webb is trending nicely right now. Only time will tell how long that trend continues. So far, things look different for Webb than they have the last 4-5 years, and that's good. He's racing more, and getting a little better every week. He's been taking chunks off his times for the last month or so. The data point of that 1:51 means nothing until put in the context of his 1:54s and 1:55s in recent weeks and his 3:38 doubling back in 13:49. Right now that 1:51 by itself tells us very little. Gotta look at the whole picture, and the whole picture shows a guy with better endurance than anaerobic power right now who's getting a little more fit every week.

If Webb can make the Oly Trials 1500 final, that would be huge for him right now, even if he's DFL in the final. Making the team at this point is the stuff of Disney movies or After School Specials. But the same thing could have been said of Christian Smith in '08 and other guys at every Trials.

IF he stays healthy for a full season, whether or not he makes the team I think Webb bumps his head at around 1:47 & 3:34 this year. I can't see him getting beyond that by September 1, and again that presumes he's healthy the whole year which would be another first from the last 4-5 years. And if he could end the season at that level and go into next season healthy off of that kind of fitness, it would be huge for him.

But then again . . . this is Webb.

Yeah. I stand by what I said. I think Wheating is more of a contender at this point than Webb. He's younger, has almost the same PR (run more recently than Webb's), and opened his outdoor season faster. Not to mention the fact that he actually won his season opener, proving that he already has superior closing ability compared to Webb.

It's hard to predict how all the chips will fall at the Trials, but I can say with confidence that I think Wheating will at least fare better than Webb.

Good post.

Am I the only one who believes that Webb could drop a 13:15 5000 right now if he actually raced one?

That guy too wrote:

Good post.

Am I the only one who believes that Webb could drop a 13:15 5000 right now if he actually raced one?

I don't know if you're the only one who believes that, but I don't. Based on his 13:49 doubling back, I'd project him to be low 13:30s right now. If he's under 13:30, it ain't by much. He's made progress, but nowhere near 13:15 (a time only four seconds off his PR) progress.

All I can say is that all these guys are lucky Cam Levins isn't going down the distance to give them a good shelacking

This place gets worse everyday. I have coached runners for the last six years and run for the last 10 and it is impossible (or nearly) for an athlete, even a well-coached, well-conditioned, disciplined athlete to have their "best race" every race. Runners have bad races. Even elites. Even record holders. I'm sure most of the people that post here could even pace a "slow" Webb.

Talent never goes away. He is a hard trainer and if he is 100 percent healthy he has a chance. Just not sure if he will have enough time to pull it off, but I am rooting for him. He is only 29 so if it does not happen this year, it he steadily progresses he definitely has one more olympic opportunity maybe two after this year

i'd like to see him run a 3:36 this weekend. that would leave him in prime shape to hit the Olympic A standard by the end of the month.

Assuming his recent 800 wasn't just a bad race, if he can get his 800 time down to 1:47 by the trials he should be ready for a 3:32.

And yeah, it looks like we are seeing a stronger Webb, although perhaps a little bit less speedy, than the young Webb. I bet he could run 13:25 right now, despite being nowhere near top form. I'd love for him to run a late season 5k after the olympics and go after 13 minutes, definitely seems possible.

well im drunk now so im sayin he gets the win in 3:33. but tomorrow i say hes 3:37 outside the top 3

Zat0pek wrote:

But then again . . . this is Webb.

Great post Zat0pek.

I think the last line says it all. While Webb is consistently progressing towards the trials aerobically and could very well run 3:34 in the final in 7 weeks, if there is anything Alan is- it's unpredictable. In 7 weeks, he is just as likely to be running 3:31 as 3:45. Unfortunately, he has the same uncanny ability to flash brilliance as he has to burn to ashes.

Levins FTW wrote:

All I can say is that all these guys are lucky Cam Levins isn't going down the distance to give them a good shelacking

*shellacking

Webb has morphed into Jason Lunn and Michael Stember. That is not a bad thing, just don't expect super elite status.

Very very immature wrote:

Webb has morphed into Jason Lunn and Michael Stember. That is not a bad thing, just don't expect super elite status.

that is insulting, putting it mildly, to alan webb. i'm sure lunn and stember would trade places and careers with webb in a second if they could. a 3:46 miler battling injury for several years is not equated to a 3:54 miler simply becuase his recent performances have not measured up to his all time peak.

Very very immature wrote:

Webb has morphed into Jason Lunn and Michael Stember. That is not a bad thing, just don't expect super elite status.

As a previous poster noted, Webb continues to be mentioned because he has shown flashes of domination (both on the US and world scene) and now is potentially back on that path. If it was 2008 and Stember was launching into devastating grinding kicks like he did at the California State 1600, you can guarantee people would be having very similar conversations.

michrunner9999 wrote:

Talent never goes away. He is a hard trainer and if he is 100 percent healthy he has a chance. Just not sure if he will have enough time to pull it off, but I am rooting for him. He is only 29 so if it does not happen this year, it he steadily progresses he definitely has one more olympic opportunity maybe two after this year

Webb has two more Olympic opportunities?? Are you on drugs son? Stop sniffing his jock and screw your head on straight. Rarely has a 29 yr old won an Olympic gold in the 1500 (El G). This is it for him for any shot of Olympic glory. As Zatopek said earlier, half a decade is a long time- time is running out for Webb, he's not as young as the springtime anymore. He's old for a miler and his kick isn't there.