Best High School Freshman? 9:35 for the 3200m at Regionals

Thanks FlagPole for noticing the PROGRESSION of Suhki's times.

That is the crazy part!

I hope he keeps improving throughout the summer.

It will be interesting.

Thanks FlagPole for noticing the PROGRESSION of Suhki's times.

That is the crazy part!

I hope he keeps improving throughout the summer.

It will be interesting.

If Sukhi runs the FootLocker series next year, I think he may qualify for Nationals!

watchout wrote:

When did I ever make up false times for runners?

watchout wrote:

8:54.8h 3k -> 9:37.4c 3200m

4:08.80 1500m -> 4:28.6c 1600m -> 9:34.6c 3200m (using 93.5%, which I did for all 1500/1600/mile marks; though it would be 9:40.8c using 92.5% which would be more frosh-friendly)

I feel that converting 1600 to 3200 times is making up false times for runners.

If you're going to make estimates, it is good practice to always identify that's what you're doing, and that the times are not real. For example, "is the approximate equivalent of running X:XX for 3200 meters", not so and so ran 4:08.80 -> 9:34.6c. No, he didn't run 9:34.6c, as c indicates a conversion from 3000 to 3200 (still not the same), but certainly not 1500 to 3200.

Statistically I agree 100%. But you know how hs kids are...almost all of them are better at the mile due to lack of lifetime miles.

It's awesome to see so much young talent in the Northwest. Especially back in Oregon again. You guys in Washingon rarely have "down" years. I'm still expecting national level things from Thompson (the soph from CC). He has only ran 9:03 this spring, must have missed some winter training.

South Dakota has had some good freshman boys in the past couple of years.

Last season's frosh:

Addison DeHaven (Brookings) 4:30/9:42

Kyle Burdick (RC Stevens ) 4:34/9:42

This season:

Jacob Simmons (Sturgis) 4:25/1:59

J.R. wrote:

watchout wrote:

When did I ever make up false times for runners?

watchout wrote:

8:54.8h 3k -> 9:37.4c 3200m

4:08.80 1500m -> 4:28.6c 1600m -> 9:34.6c 3200m (using 93.5%, which I did for all 1500/1600/mile marks; though it would be 9:40.8c using 92.5% which would be more frosh-friendly)

I feel that converting 1600 to 3200 times is making up false times for runners.

If you're going to make estimates, it is good practice to always identify that's what you're doing, and that the times are not real. For example, "is the approximate equivalent of running X:XX for 3200 meters", not so and so ran 4:08.80 -> 9:34.6c. No, he didn't run 9:34.6c, as c indicates a conversion from 3000 to 3200 (still not the same), but certainly not 1500 to 3200.

Again, since you are saying I am falsifying times kids run, please point to exactly where I made up a time for a kid.

All the kids I listed have run what I posted. Those are actual results from those kids. I did not make up false times for anyone.

I never said that Tooley has run a 9:34.6 3200m. In the combined list of 1500m/1600m/mile/3000m/3200m/2 mile performances, I listed him ahead of the kids who have run slower in the 1500m, and slower than the converted time for their events. Again, there is no other reasonable way to "rank" these kids other than comparing what they have done, and it those performances mean.

It is entirely reasonable to say that "Kid A ran 4:00 for a full mile, he has been better than Kid B, who has only run 9:00 for 3200m" even though they do not compete in the same events. Even if Kid A has run a 3200m race or two, because that may not be his focus event, or the event he is most inclined to do well in at that point in time. If you don't like lists comparing different kids running different events, or on different cross country courses, DON'T PAY ATTENTION TO THEM. They are created for those that actually do believe that one performance, while not perfectly, can be compared to another. If you don't feel that way, that's fine, but it's your own choice.

A 9:30 runner won't make it out of leagues in southern California but you think that will make xc nationals. Hahahahaha.

Portland Harrier wrote:

Statistically I agree 100%. But you know how hs kids are...almost all of them are better at the mile due to lack of lifetime miles.

It's awesome to see so much young talent in the Northwest. Especially back in Oregon again. You guys in Washingon rarely have "down" years. I'm still expecting national level things from Thompson (the soph from CC). He has only ran 9:03 this spring, must have missed some winter training.

Indeed, the conversion is for kids that are "balanced" (are just as capable to run the 1600 or 3200, meaning they aren't "800/1600" guys or "3200/5k" guys). That's going to be especially untrue for freshmen, and the 92.5% probably works better for freshman and, depending on their training program, a great deal of sophomores and sometimes even juniors.

It is great to see the talent in the NW so strong! And on both sides, that's a GREAT group of freshman girls as well! It's great that we will (or at least, should be able to) see some great showdowns with Efraimson and Fuller (and maybe a couple others) from WA compete against Tsai, Todd and Piper for another three years!!

Tooley's dad was an Olympian in kayak and is a BQ level marathon runner. Super nice family.

FLCoach wrote:

Thanks FlagPole for noticing the PROGRESSION of Suhki's times.

That is the crazy part!

I hope he keeps improving throughout the summer.

It will be interesting.

I don't think the progression indicates a whole lot more than the time itself. 9:35 is 9:35. I am of the opinion that in 9 months of good hard training a 14-15 year old can reach at least 95% of their potential for that age-- it doesn't matter if they've been running for 4 years, playing soccer for 4 years or something else active. At this age, I think the level of maturity of the kid, and the volume of work being run are far greater indicators of future potential. His progression does not tell you anything about whether he will run 8:50 his senior year or 9:15. Will he grow another 3 inches, gain 25 lbs? How is his leg speed? Can he sustain mileage? How will he handle hitting the eventual plateau?

I think a good argument can be made that a kid who has been progressing steadily (and building a big base) has a better chance to improve over the long haul than one making a rapid ascent, assuming they both have trained hard over the last 9 months and run 9:35.

You say you don't falsify times, then you give example of where you have done this, why you do it, and try to justify what you're doing, i.e. "because there is no other way."

Right but you're not comparing what they have done.

You're comparing times that you completely made up, the same that that Ventolin does, but at least he makes it obvious so that people can ignore him.

It might be reasonable to SAY that, but not to post it in a LIST, like they actually ran those times. They did NOT run those times.

Didn't you start out by saying you're NOT falsifying times? So why are you trying to justify doing it then???

There are plenty of examaples where comparisons where such comparisonas are NOT true at all. Jim Ryun ran 3:39.0 for 1500 meters in 11th grade, but did NOT break 9 minutes for 2 miles in high school, even though he made a number of concentrated efforts to do so!

Jeff Nelson ran 8:36 for 2 miles in high school and, as far as I know, never ran faster than 4:06 for a mile! Are you saying Ryun's 1500 automatically put him ahead of Jeff Nelson for 2 miles????? Or that Jeff Nelson's 2 mile put him 10 seconds ahead of Ryun for a mile??

Incredulous!!!! You need to think of what you are doing.

That's like saying if people don't like you beating up little girls, then don't pay any attention to it.

It's not a matter of feeling. You're making up, "creating", falsifying the times out of nothing. That's a fact, which you admit and are trying to justify.

"That's like saying if people don't like you beating up little girls, then don't pay any attention to it".

Yeah, it's the exact same thing....

It looks like Florida has a couple of other fast Freshman as well. Nick Diaz had a nice double of 4:27, 9:42 and Kurt Convey (BConvey's son) ran 9:47. This class looks like it could equal the class of 2010 in Florida, Mizereck, Atkinson, Barker etc....

Portland Harrier wrote:

I'm still expecting national level things from Thompson (the soph from CC). He has only ran 9:03 this spring, must have missed some winter training.

Kyle has had a reasonably good winter and spring, although he has had some minor injuries/illness.

He hasn't run a "serious" 3km yet; the 9:03 was about 45 minutes after he PRed at 800m (2:02.9) - and was certainly a controlled effort. On Wednesday he ran 4:08 for 1500m, after going out in 2:22 (2:03.3 for his last 800m), and he's entered tomorrow night in the Centennial Invite 3000m. We're expecting a pretty good effort there.

Dave Frank

Central Catholic

Ok, you go ahead and keep telling yourself that Jim Ryun wasn't even the best high school distance runner from Kansas in the 60's. I'm done feeding this troll.

Awesome to hear Dave. Hope you don't think I was criticizing. I also hate to put any kind of "expectations" on a high school kid. But ever since his freshman XC season, and knowing he was in good hands, I've been extremely excited to see him progress.

Very excited to see Truax and South's Bloomer progress as well.

Talent isn't limited to just the boys side either with Rice and Tsai...IMO Tsai has ridiculous potential in the longer distances.

Watchout, I just want to say that I think what you did was completely valid. A time from one distance CAN be said to be more impressive than a time from another distance.

Another addition: Zack Snider from Indiana ran a 4:27.17 mile, which would be 4:25.x 1600. He also ran a 9:29.32 3200 indoors.

More fast Freshman wrote:

It looks like Florida has a couple of other fast Freshman as well. Nick Diaz had a nice double of 4:27, 9:42 and Kurt Convey (BConvey's son) ran 9:47. This class looks like it could equal the class of 2010 in Florida, Mizereck, Atkinson, Barker etc....

Next year's Florida Freshman class looks to be even better with Brandon Marquez, Nic Jacobsen and Gaby Corea already running mid-4:30s (or the equivalent) in the 1600 as 8th graders. Florida is at the forefront of middle school running with State Meets in both Track and Cross Country.