The Kernyan OG Marathon Squad revealed

Speaker wrote:

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Not having WR holder obviously seems odd but when you have a runner who has run only 4 seconds slower, on a worse course with worse pacers it really isn't a huge deal.

I love this quote because it fits in with anyone! For those who believe GEoffrey holds the world record(2:03:02),then Moses Mosop has run only 4 seconds slower than the world record. And for the majority who correctly believe Makau as the world record holder, Kipsang ran 4 seconds slower.

Many have thrown stones at Mosop and think that he is not really as good as his coach says. Now Canova has a chance to correct the mistake he did, if any, before Moses ran in Rotterdam. It is my opinion that Mosop is really good (probably overtrained) and had a bad day in Rotterdam. He is bound to eventually prove his doubters wrong.

Even though Wilson Kipsang is self coached, he keeps in constant touch with Canova. Canova will therefore be handling the entire marathon team.

You have to figure Mosop is pretty good if he can run 2:05 flat on an "off day". That's only a handful of seconds slower than Kipsang ran in London, and in poor conditions. He likely would have ran faster had he had more realistic expectations and not gone out as hard with the goal of running 2:02.

Then again, you can't blame him. If your PR was just over 2:03 flat, wouldn't you want to run under 2:03? I think he and Canova will get it right eventually.

I spoke earlier with Employee #1 who spent more time with these guys than anyone.

I asked him if he had heard the Kenyan team had been announced. He hadn't.

"Tell me the team they selected" I said.

"They had to pick Kipsang so Kipsang. I then think they picked Geoffrey Mutai. And if they picked Geoffrey Mutai that means they had to pick Patrick Makau" (implying if they went with Mutai, the world #1 in 2011, despite him dropping out they would pick Makau, the World record holder, despite him dropping out)

I had never thought of the logic like that.

I then said, "What if they didn't pick Mutai?"

"If they didn't pick Mutai that means they picked Abel Kirui and Moses Mosop."

He was right on the money.

He then pointed out the arguably 3 top guys from 2011 in terms of accomplishments are the 3 guys not on the team.

He also said there was speculation that Makau would be put on the team because he's from a different tribe than the others and with the tribal tensions the last few years in Kenya that might come into play.

Emory thinking of it logically said if you start with the 6 preselected go off of 2012 results the team is the team they announced today.

If you want to factor in past performance you go with a different team.

He'll have more later on the site.

JUNIOR wrote:

A Makau/G. Mutai matchup is very expensive. No marathon wants to take both in one race. And if they did, one of the two will DNF. [...] For Makau, A WR is a WR. Only the best in the world runs a WR. He has the crown and therefore does not need anything else to prove himself.

Not only is it expensive, I am not sure Makau wants to pace Mutai to a new WR. As the defending champion, Berlin pretty much has to invite Makau if he wants to race there.

In the fall, Mutai's options for a legitimate world record attempt are quite limited - Frankfurt is fast, but I doubt they could afford him. If he wants to run a time trial, and feels that he has a shot at the WR, he may just try to defend his New York title first, and try to run a world record in Dubai, for a really nice bonus.

On the topic of the thread: I cannot fault their final selection, but the process was ridiculous. The pre-selection and pre-trial aside, I wonder if any of the non-selected runners could have a shot at the 10,000m? I don't think it would make a lot of sense for any of them, especially since the field is already stacked, but if they just wanted to be at the Olympics, who do you think would have a chance?

G. Mutai has a bronze medal from the 2010 African championships, and a 10k PR of 27:19 (road) from 2011.

Not putting G.Mutai on the team was a horrible mistake. The absolutely destroyed the course record at both Boston and New York last year. Really dumb Athletics Kenya. Not only that but by dropping out of Boston he will be the most rested of any of those guys. Ethiopia had 4 guys break 2:05 in Dubai that will all be more rested than any of the Kenyan squad. Undoubtly one of those 3 guys selected by A.K. will run bad at the Olympics and G. Mutai will set another course record at whichever fall marathon he runs.

Email from Nairobi wrote:G. Mutai has a bronze medal from the 2010 African championships, and a 10k PR of 27:19 (road) from 2011.

i believe that was a tactical race ( albeit kiprop won in a wr for altitude - ncaa altitude tables/wind-altitude calculator gave kiprop as 26'37 - but remember, somewhat tactical, not a tt & jeffy was close behind & not in '11 new york shape )

i believe jeffy has to be considered same as paula when she almost ran wr in '02 of 2"18 & soon after ran 30'01 non-chinese wr ( previous ingrid of 30'13 )

i reckon jeffy couda run

26'15 - 26'20 !!!

in his new york shape, just off his M training !!!

he shoud be allowed to run the eugene 10k trial

i believe he is in 10k wr shape if in new york shape

laugh if you want...

really? u leaving G.Mutai out? no way..btw Mosop and Abel, one of them would have been left in favor of Geofrey.i hope Geofrey breaks a world record in Berlin.

I've never seen it, so it can hardly be too very pervasive. You act like this talk has been going on for decades. The last few months is nothing. And speaking of "just don't get it," you don't get the purpose of question marks, do you?

That's your argument? Obviously the format has been outgrown when two of the premier marathoners are left out of the race due to a technicality.

Merely typing a statement doesn't make it so. You offer no support for your argument whatsoever. The marathon is VERY different. That's why people in this country know who Frank Shorter is, but not Billy Mills, or Dave Wottle. (That, by the way, is what's known as "support for an argument." I'm sure you'll ignore it, though.)

My point is that Ritz, along with Rupp, is an overwhelming favorite to make the team anyway in the 10,000. If every event was truly the same, then he wouldn't care whether he was on the team in the 10,000 or the marathon and would thus have nothing to cry about. To say he has a better chance of medaling in the marathon right now is utterly ridiculous because it's not true. If he misses in the June trials, too; then yes, he'll have something to cry about. Get it?

You'll get no argument from me there. Expanding the field in the marathon wouldn't ruin anything. It would just make it better. The only thing it would diminish is the importance of the trials process (for the few countries that actually hold a trials race), which I think would be a minor loss in the grand scheme of things.

ps--Referring to people whom you don't know as "child" and "bud" doesn't help your argument, it just makes you look like a jerk who is under the mistaken impression that it will help his feeble argument.

some iaaf stats

paula in '02 went

2"18'56 / 30'01 / 2"17'18

i believe it's more than fair to offer jeffy the 10k time equivalent for men at very worst

the current tables

2"18'56 -> 26'47

2"17'18 ->26'33

that is good enough to contend for gold

if you believe his new york/boston form was at worst, say :

2"16'00 ->26'25

i really think you need to consider this sort of number for his 10k shape off his M training ( personally, i think it's upto 10s faster )...

Anyone who needs to critique grammar mistakes (especially considering I have been typing on my phone) knows that their argument has no foundation. I never remotely implied that this discussion has been going on for "decades", and that is because the fact that it has been prevalent over the last few months IS significant. This specific topic has been discussed on this site, on this forum, ad nauseum, and thus you stating that you were the first to make this suggestion displays your ignorance (there is a search function for a reason).

You agree that it doesn't get bigger than the Olympics, but then act like the Olympics can be outgrown. It is not an some outdated, antiquated event, it is a time-honored tradition. Changing the tradition alters its importance, especially when showing favoritism towards a certain nation (as would be the case if an exception was made solely for the marathon). The fact that one nation doesn't have two of the world's best competing one the Olympic stage is not a flaw of the system, it is a flaw of the governing body of that individual nation. The majesty of The Games is that sweeping the medals is an ultimate display of athletic dominance, savvy, and quality decision making. If Mutai or Makau goes on to set a world record while one of the Olympic team members falters, that is AK's fault, and no one else's.

The marathon may be "different" than other track and field events, supplying Shorter the fame you speak of, but it is not "special" or "different" in the sense that it is no more significant than any other Olympic event, and should not be treated thus. Your argument is ruined with the fact that more people know who Shawn Johnson and Nastia Liukin are than they do Frank Shorter. Shorter's backstory of being born in Munich and winning in Munich, as well as his post-running career also aided in his fame with the general public. Just because it is a glory event does not mean it is "different" in the context of THE OLYMPIC GAMES.

You have NO basis at all to say that Ritz cried because he cares about the marathon most of all. You think he would value a silver medal in the 'thon any more than he would a silver in the 10,000? Don't even act like you know the answer to that one, he'd likely be jumping for joy and screaming like a little kid either way. He has been trying for 4 years to figure out the marathon, with everyone around him telling him he can be the next big thing. Yet, somehow, he simply can't put together a good race over the full 26.2 despite what appears like limitless talent. Don't you think that would be a little frustrating in itself?

Finally, I refer to you as a youngling because it is clear that you lack the intellect, maturity, and reading comprehension to understand what the other posters and I are talking about. I may be old, but I know what I'm talking about, bud.

I called it.

In the end it all came down to politics.there has been alot of tribal tensions in Kenya for the last 5 years.Makau is from a different tribe from G.Mutai.Kipsang and Kirui and so if Atletics kenya had picked G.Mutai over Makau then his tribal leaders would have made alot of noise and hence put a spotlight on AK officials whose majority happen to come from the same tribe as G.Mutai.

@running_comment wrote:remember Eric Wainana

no

he was shit

despite some medals he was wasn't even 3rd string behind others - they wanted big money not a gold in those days

the chump has a 2"08'43p!

he kept out rutto/limo who were desperate to run in athens but this "magnetic" hold he had on selectors kept out gold winning guys

don't mention this bum again

And Kirui has times, too

not quick enough

he is not quick enough to get in top 3 if everyone runs well

he needed to have shown 2"04 once in his life on flat/tt course

he hasn't, & games are too competitive now for berlin/daewoo form to win

Big props to Employee #1! Did I mention I made the same picks?http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4549707

mosop should have been left off the team. his times is slow and makau is the wr holder. wr holder means olympîcs. makau pr 2:03:38 berlin 2012 is faster than mosop pr 2:05:03 in rotterdam this year.

my pridiction for mosop in London oymîcs is that he is dnfed. he is not mentally ready for the challenge of the olympics since he dodged london compitition and ran rotterdam insted of london.

paula will probably lose to all 3 kenyans women selectors. keitany kiplagat and jeptoo prs are 2:18:37 2:19:30 and 2:20:14 all together are just too stronge. an ethiopian might sneek in the medals but i hope not.

@running_comment wrote:remember Eric Wainana

ventolin^3 wrote:

no

he was shit

despite some medals he was wasn't even 3rd string behind others - they wanted big money not a gold in those days

the chump has a 2"08'43p!

he kept out rutto/limo who were desperate to run in athens but this "magnetic" hold he had on selectors kept out gold winning guys

don't mention this bum again

Ventolin, ventolin, ventolin - take some and BREATHE. We AGREE, man!

My point in saying "remember Eric Wainana" was PRECISELY to say that he was WRONGLY included in that squad, when Kenya had far faster marathoners on offer. It is usual AK garbage to include past champions even if they don't have the performances to back it up. I was saying "remember Wainana" to predict that they would include Kirui in the same STUPIDway - INCORRECTLY in my view (same as your view, I am glad to see).

You are in such a hurry to fight that you don't see that you don't see how much I hated that Wainana decision? It killed me, man. Rutto and Limo were on fire that year!

@running_comment wrote:

Big props to Employee #1! Did I mention I made the same picks?

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4549707

Hahaha - I started a thread to see if anyone else had those picks, and it was deleted. Why?