What will happen first: 1:39.xx or 1:59:xx?

i believe the 800m is a week record. It will go soon, but Rudishka's problem isn't his speed. It is his ability to go sub 3:30 for 1500

We could see 1:39 this summer. We probably won't see 1:59 this century.

Bekele could break 2 in the marathon in a perfect race.

& coe had best pacing ever seen on 1st lap

rudy wouda killed to have had billy pacing him

rudy was possibly at his peak in the 1'41.09wr in berlin which was essentially a solo run as he struggled to get anywhere close to 2m behind pacer, to get the ~ 1s/lap drafting

if he'd got billy-like pacing from 150 - 400, that wouda been ~ 0.6s off his 1'41.09 ->

~ 1'40.5

no way coe was running that whatever quicker tracks he couda run on

rudy is essentially already a mid-1'40 guy

he needs to find ~0.5s to get to 1'40.0 - not an impossible task

plenty difference

coe at his peak maya gone 45.7

rudy ran 45.5 in his opener on a not particularly good weather day in oz

his own manager says that he couda go high-44 if he switched to the 400, meaning he shoud go somewhere 45.0 - 45.25 just off his 800 ability at peak

there is big difference between 45.7 & 45.0 - 45.25

doesn't seem to matter much

both cruz/kip were no world beaters over 1500

you only need enough over-distance endurance to be strong for 800m & that may only be 900m

rudy is close enough to the 400 time & maturation coud get him <45 off just 800 training

the 1500 background is not needed as kip/cruz & rudy himself have proved

Nothing "maya" about it. He was timed at 45.7 from a standing, faulty start in a relay 90mins after front running a 1:44 flat in early June. He was more than 3m behind the guy in front with no drafting, ran slightly wide to pass him entering the straight and eased up when he knew he'd won 20m from the tape. That was easily worth a 45.7 for a flat right there, more like a 45.5.

Give him a couple of circuit races in August and he'd have certainly run sub 45.5.

Yes, but we're talking about running 1:39. None of those athletes broke 1:41, despite being out and out 800m runners. Coe was running lots of 1500s and miles too. Their endurance may have been great to 900m, but a sub 1:40 guy will need to have endurance lasting longer than that. None of them (Cruz, Kip, Rudisha) approached 3:32 even. If they were sub 3:30 runners, combined with 45 flat 400 speed then they would have the necessary strength to approach 1:39.

unfortunately the concept of hand-timing means nothing to you - it is usually upto 0.2s slower than auto

there was no "official" clocking for that split & there are none for relay splits

even the vid shows only a head-on view of the takeover & despite him stumbling at the start, he doesn't stop, so it is still a degree of flying run, albeit not full ~ 0.8s advantage, something ~ 0.1 - 0.2s

at best, putting in hand-time error, small degree of flying start, you are getting

45.7 + 0.2 + 0.1 or 0.2 = 46.0 or 46.1 auto

running wide on a straight takes little off compared to curve & easing off at the line was minimal

that is more like 45.80/45.90 open 400 at best

you obviously don't understand the concept of

"who are 2 fastest all time ?"

you look for those as the likely type of candidate runner to even further break the wr

the 2 fastest are 0.6 - 0.7s faster than next on the list who was a 800/1500 guy

the 1st 2 are essentially pure 800 guys

use your brain & realise these are the future candidate types ( pure 800 guys ) who will most likely further improve the wr - & if 1 does so, then 1'40.0 may be on horizon

the days of combined 800/1500 guys breaking the 800wr are over for now - the wr has gotten too quick

you own example of 45.0/3'30.0 shows this

45.0 / 3'30.0 ->1'41.54

even 3'30 endurance won't get you close to current wr for a 45s guy

it woud need 3'24.5 endurance for a 45.0 guy to run 1'40.00

therefore you don't look for 1500 endurance anymore ( when a 3'24 guy turns up, you can cahnge that view ) - you look for increasing 400 speed & just enough endurance to 900m or so

the likes of rudy/kip only have specialised endurance for little over 800m - 900 or 1000m & in absence of 3'24 guys appearing anytime soon, pure 800 guys are the ones to further break the wr

I agree with you that the person to run 1:39 will have to be a specialist 800m runner, and that he will have to be able to run below 45.0 for 400, but surely someone with simultaneous sub 3:30 ability; and we may be talking 3:28, will have the necessary endurance to keep going over that last 100m. Sure, his endurance need only last perfectly to 900m, but the ability and knowledge of knowing he can go sub 3:30 for 15 will have a great psychological benefit too.

I understand the concept of hand time difference thank you.

I thought some relay splits were automatic, e.g Johnson's 42.91. It must be auto if they give them to the nearest 1/100.

I think your being a bit conservative with estimation of Coe's run

At the hand over he's 1 to 2 m up on the American, and by the time he's litterally hobbling through the start line, the other guy is 3m up. His first few steps are more like stumbles and I'd say he'd have got off better had he started from a standing start in blocks.

OK, I'll give you the running wide wasn't on bend, but he eased down at end. You also don't take into consideration that this was after running a 1:44.0 and it was the first meet in June. Theres no way Coe was going to be at his season's best then. Someone with the ability to peak pretty well for 2 Olympics isn't going to want to peak for a non descript meet before the season has started.

I'll still stick with him being able to run a 45.5 from blocks sometime that season.

sub3over40 wrote:

A 1:39:XX is certainly more feasible. Rudisha may be able to do it on the right day. Some sprinters with a lot of speed could dust off some old Lydiard books and get there in a few years. It is humanly possible. The sub-2 marathon is a whole different animal. You would need everything to go right. Weather, pacing, probably a wedge of world class runners breaking the wind for the winner. The sub 2 seems a long ways away by comparison in my opinion. They does not mean that the sub 1:40 will be easy or we will ever see it.

Too bad in reality good sprinters don't make good 800 runners.

SBCC wrote:

sub3over40 wrote:

A 1:39:XX is certainly more feasible. Rudisha may be able to do it on the right day. Some sprinters with a lot of speed could dust off some old Lydiard books and get there in a few years. It is humanly possible. The sub-2 marathon is a whole different animal. You would need everything to go right. Weather, pacing, probably a wedge of world class runners breaking the wind for the winner. The sub 2 seems a long ways away by comparison in my opinion. They does not mean that the sub 1:40 will be easy or we will ever see it.

Too bad in reality good sprinters don't make good 800 runners.

And you base that on what?

Looking at it from a development standpoint, I believe there is more room for improvement in the 800.

If prize money in single track events catch up with the marathon, 1:39.xx will happen FOR SURE within a matter of 5-10 years. You have to admit that the recruiting, development, and competition for the marathon is off the charts right now, while events like the 800 is like the forgotten toy buried in the closet.

Take a look at the level of selectiveness and specialization there is currently in the marathon. It has developed to such a degree that only a small pocket of the world can produce the best in the world despite the valiant efforts from almost everywhere.

The 800, on the other hand, is much more open. There are so many different body types represented in a WC final than the top 8 marathoners in the world. This tells me that the place in the world with the truly optimized body type for the 800, has not fully applied itself yet. This is not to discredit Rudisha type people, its just that there are too few Rudisha type people. And so competition and ultimately, development, is weaker there.

But maybe I'm using a skew look. Perhaps the marathon is finally catching up with track, or perhaps it's just that it is no longer enough to win the marathon but people now want to see world records; and so it was the approach of the marathon that is catching up.

Either way, I still believe that the community with talent for 1:39.xx exists today but has not produced it because they've not applied that talent correctly.

although... wrote:

. . . it was the first meet in June. Theres no way Coe was going to be at his season's best then. Someone with the ability to peak pretty well for 2 Olympics isn't going to want to peak for a non descript meet before the season has started.

I'll still stick with him being able to run a 45.5 from blocks sometime that season.

Except this was a different event than his goal event. Peter Coe probably believed that Seb had to get his best speed on-line in June so that he could then develop it to last longer in the following months.

not necessarily

45.0 guy coud run 1'40.0 - with enough 900m endurance

you are not getting it

it's not 1500 endurance, unless at worst 3'24 for a 45.0 guy, but enough quality endurance for 900m

a 45.0/3'30 guy may have enough 900 endurance to run 1'40.0, but you are looking in the wrong place

rudy has no 1500 time at all & no one expects it to be much below 3'40, but he had intrinsic mid-1'40 ability

he proves that looking at 1500 ability, unless it is well below 3'30, is complete waste of time with 800wr at 1'41.0

no

you don't

all it shows is that the baton moved from 1200 - 1600m in 42.91

it doesn't tell us whether he ran 400m or 395m or 405m

these splits have to be looked in conjunction with vid

no

it is still a flying start compared to zero start in an open 400

he still gets an advantage, albeit not ~ 0.8s, but maybe 0.1 - 0.2s

learn to read

no

experience tells you when guy has run peak race of season/career

you, clearly can't tell

it was immediately obvious that was peak run of his season/career over 800 & it didn't matter whether may or september

same as experience called kaki's 1'42.21 as virtually certain to be season peak - he ran it whole 6/7 earlier in season than coe's 1'41.7

when you see an "ultimate" performance, you shoud know it

you clearly don't

fatigue after a 1'44.0 is true

i'd knock off 0.2 - 0.3s for that

but again predicated on an unreliable hand-time - like i said - not an official time in any manner

you are still 2/10ths too optimistic

Ventolin Wrote .... "unfortunately the concept of hand-timing means nothing to you - it is usually upto 0.2s slower than auto"

Ventolin, don't you mean up to 0.2 seconds faster?

yes

the rule of thumb as you know to start with is 0.24 for 100/200 & 0.14 for 400 & above

no etched in stone rule, but somewhere to start...

Looking at the Forrest wrote:Looking at it from a development standpoint, I believe there is more room for improvement in the 800...

nice post

however, i'd add that rather than looking for "new" talent, we shoud hope the current 800 talent maximises what they have got

800 running since late-'90s has been full of underperforming guys who either don't commit to races or get the full opportunity to do so

look at yego, a WC, who had a 1'43.66pb, then chased rudy to 1'42.67 !

same with boaz who had a 1'44.68pb entering '10 & ended up chasing rudy again to 1'42.95 !

i don't believe that they made sudden leaps to these, but likely had somewhere close to this ability earlier but didn't find the opportunity to show it - either not commiting to the 400 - 600 part of the race or not having a dedicated pacer to take them thru in mid-50 ( for 1'43.0 aim ) as opposed to sole pacer in 49.5 ( for 1'41.0 aim for likes of rudy )

i reckon a lot of the mid/high-1'43 guys we have about, are actually 1'42+ guys in sheep's clothing, but they just don't get the opportunity ( or make the 400 - 600 effort ) to do so

good chance that the young ethiopian & 1 or 2 of those Polish guys will go 1'42 this year, providing they get/take their chances

ventolin^3 wrote:

no

experience tells you when guy has run peak race of season/career

you, clearly can't tell

it was immediately obvious that was peak run of his season/career over 800 & it didn't matter whether may or september

same as experience called kaki's 1'42.21 as virtually certain to be season peak - he ran it whole 6/7 earlier in season than coe's 1'41.7

when you see an "ultimate" performance, you shoud know it

Nonsense. No sense whatsoever being at a peak in first week of June when there is a planned race v Ovett in late August and 2 major 800 golds to go for in August and Sept. Coe had always planned Florence as a tester before proper attack on 800 WR in Oslo, July.

The example of Kaki is irrelevant. He had almost perfect drafting for the entire race following Rudisha. Take Rudisha out of the equation and he'd have run about 0.8 slower, giving him 1:43.0. He ran a 1:43.1 a few weeks later. Then he got injuries and never had that same scenario as that Oslo race later in season, i.e being paced all the way in super fast time.

Better example is Kipketer in 97. First real attack of the season at 800 wr in early July gets 1:41.7. With further attacks later in season, improves by 0.6 by late August. He too wouldn't have been aiming to peak in July but by late August.

Coe choosing a career peak in June is utter crap.

moron

your peabrain can't comprehend that whatever his plans were, the peak 800 ability of his career came in june

it was that day, not some "mythical" day 2/12 later

idiot

totally relevant

that is fact

he ran 1'42.2 earlier than coe in june & never beat it

the 2 races weren't even close

kaki ran aggressive as hell in the rudy race, forcing rudy to run a too-fast opening 200 - likely costing him a mid-1'41

kaki couda run 1'42-flat that day with more sensible opening 200

he was peak 800 start of june

drivel

he was uninjured when he ran later

- 1'43.4 just 6/7 later

- 1'43.5 mid july

- 1'43.1 later july

he didn't want to take on rudy in end july in african champs - won in magnificent solo 1'42.8 at altitude

if, he was injured, he wasn't just 8/7 before africa champs when clocking 1'43.1 in monaco

kaki coudn't reproduce early june form

imbecile

he runs a solo 1'42.67i wr in march with an already solo 1'43.9wr in his legs from 2/7 before

that is 1'42-flat indoor shape, whilst fatigued, with pacer from 150 - 400 &

~ 1'41-flat

outdoor shape with centripetal force considerations between 200m/400m tracks

1'41-flat shape in march !

idiot

get this into your numbskull

he couda chosen all he wants

no one "chooses" what shape they will get at any date you moron

they make do with what you have on race day

( of course predictions will/can be made )

he ended up with best 800 shape of his life in early june

moron

offer anything that shows better than that firenze run for 800 after june in his 800s

ventolin^3 wrote:

Looking at the Forrest wrote:Looking at it from a development standpoint, I believe there is more room for improvement in the 800...

nice post

however, i'd add that rather than looking for "new" talent, we shoud hope the current 800 talent maximises what they have got

Yes, that is what I was getting at.

poplar tree wrote:

out to lunch wrote:

20-40 years. I hope to be still alive then. Would you care to wager?

+1

You know what stinks though? When these amazing things actually do happen, and you get back on Letsrun to laugh the pants off these naysayers, they suddenly disappear. That's one of the disadvantages of message boards compared to live conversation.

LOL! Care to wager as to whether the LRC message board will be around in 20-40 years? I'm not sure we're we'd meet up though.