The shape that Ritz is in now, I think he will try to take it out at a decent pace and then really get going on the second 5k. Rupp isn't a great tactics type of runner. Sol is good at tactics but has been injured. Don't know what will be of Teg, 5k or 10k, but I don't think he can hang with this field. Ritz has the advantage right now, 12'56 5k speed with 2'09 marathon strength.
1. Teg
2. Sol
3. Ritz
DNF Rupp (not rupp certified)
bles you wrote:
1. Rupp
2. Ritz
3. Curtis
4.Trafeh
5. Bauhs
6. Solinsky
7. Moran
Deespest 10,000 trials ever?
No Ryan Vail?
13:32 5k
27:57 10k #6 in US in 2011
2:12:43 marathon debut
6th at USAs last year
11th at marathon trials
Certainly he is a better looking pick than a 31-year-old Moran who is 4 years removed from sub-28:00.
There is a long way until the Trials. I wouldn't count on Ritz, Teg and Solinsky all being healthy. You just never know. Don't be surprised if Teg focuses in on the 5k, especially if Solinsky focuses on the 10k.
ryanf wrote:
if derrick runs the 10k he may be the spoiler for a top 3 spot. he's only run at usas once which was last year after three 10k/5k doubles (pac-10, region, ncaa). not sure if he's schedule will change much this year but he's a year older and a year stronger. the guy has only run about six 10ks on the track, 4 of which were last year. with his ability to perform at big meets he could be a threat.
he's PR is currently 28:26, but i don't think many would disagree he has the ability to go under 28:00 and if he's there with a mile to go he could be dangerous. if you look at the stats for the winner and third place runners at the US Championships over the last 12 years I'd say his odds are pretty good.
US Championships 2000-2011:
winner ave time - 28:07.1
third place ave time - 28:20.3
US Championships (excluded "off years" where this was no team to make - 2002, 2006, 2010)
winner ave time - 28:03.4
third place ave time - 28:18.9
US Olympic Trials (2000, 2004, 2008)
winner ave time - 27:46.7
third place ave time - 28:04
The one catch is that Derrick will most likely have to hit the A standard at the Payton Jordan Invite!
He is schedule AND he is PR? Which is he PR or schedule?
1. Sol
2. Ritz
3. Lag
4. Teg
5. Rupp
.... I just plain dont care for rupp.
SOLINSKY-FAN wrote:
1. Sol
2. Ritz
3. Lag
4. Teg
5. Rupp
.... I just plain dont care for rupp.
Well whether you care for him or not, he is certainly more talented, superiorly coached, and has better training partners than two of the guys on that list.
Lagat won't run the 10k, Ritz and Rupp are the two most solid locks for the team.
Ritz should do much better than most people anticipate, possibly winning outright. He's coming off a PR in the Marathon, what was rumored as quality training in which he was dropping Rupp, and his history gives him the credentials to post an exceptional time in the 10k. Along with that, the past shows he has more talent than Rupp. Ritz is race savy and incredibly tough, and if healthy will be very difficult for anyone to beat, 5k included.
I predict Ritz gets 4th and then gives up running to pursue his dreams of the triathlon a la luke v.
People need to undersstand the A-standard issue going into the Trials. Over the last 3 years, hardly any of our country's A-standard were run both domestically or before USA's with the exception of Stanford 10k at Payton Jordan. My guesses include:
1500
Centrowitz
Wheating
Manzano
*all have the A-standard
STEEPLE
Nelson
Huling
Alcorn
* Nelson has A. Huling doesn't, but is good enough to get (Payton Jordan). Alcorn can't get it so Ben Bruce will be on team same way he made Worlds (he has the A). Only others would be Slattery (too old) and maybe Olinger who just missed last year, but has switched to 10,000.
5,000
Rupp and Lagat have a spot for sure.
Teg has A-standard, but I think Ritz will end up getting A-standard in both 5000 and 10,000 and will make team in both. Solinsky won't return from surgery in time.
10,000
Rupp and Ritz (see above) are locks.
Teg has A-standard (along with Nelson and Curtis). He won't finish top 3, but will get to go as 3rd place finisher won't have standard.
Teg will try the steeple on a lark and make the team. You heard it here first!
Lenny Leonard wrote:
bles you wrote:1. Rupp
2. Ritz
3. Curtis
4.Trafeh
5. Bauhs
6. Solinsky
7. Moran
Deespest 10,000 trials ever?
No Ryan Vail?
I think Aaron Braun will surprise people. I'm predicting he'll be top 5. Assuming they are all healthy and run the 10,000, the Olympic team will be Rupp, Ritz, and Solinsky. Rupp will win the race.
I expect the 10000 at Cardinal Invitational will be quite special because I suspect that's where Ritz will first try to get the "A" standard. He has run two excellent 10000s there in the past.
what really happen wrote:
People need to undersstand the A-standard issue going into the Trials. Over the last 3 years, hardly any of our country's A-standard were run both domestically or before USA's with the exception of Stanford 10k at Payton Jordan. My guesses include:
1500
Centrowitz
Wheating
Manzano
*all have the A-standard
STEEPLE
Nelson
Huling
Alcorn
* Nelson has A. Huling doesn't, but is good enough to get (Payton Jordan). Alcorn can't get it so Ben Bruce will be on team same way he made Worlds (he has the A). Only others would be Slattery (too old) and maybe Olinger who just missed last year, but has switched to 10,000.
5,000
Rupp and Lagat have a spot for sure.
Teg has A-standard, but I think Ritz will end up getting A-standard in both 5000 and 10,000 and will make team in both. Solinsky won't return from surgery in time.
10,000
Rupp and Ritz (see above) are locks.
Teg has A-standard (along with Nelson and Curtis). He won't finish top 3, but will get to go as 3rd place finisher won't have standard.
Rupp
Solinsky
Trafeh
Ritz
Curtis
wiscern wrote:
Teg will try to nail a guy from behind.
was this larry rawson that said this?