Does everyone running Nationals XC think they can win? I doubt it, runners know where they rank compared to their peers. I think most anyone in the filed minus a handful of guys go in thinking the Oly Trials ARE their Olypics and they just want to run the best they can vs the best. There is nothing wrong with that at all.
Guys like Sell, Briney and Kawauchi show people who aren't big names that they have a shot.
50% have dreamed of being on the podium
as one of the Top Three.
20% have an outside shot.
10% have a realistic chance,
but that's only the men's race
where a 2:18 guy who's young (25-27)
has a chance for a breakthrough race
running more than a five minute PR.
The women?
What are the numbers? Over 200?
Than that would make only 10% with
a chance. Anyone that hasn't run
sub 2:34 or equivalent doesn't stand
a chance for a huge breakthrough.
No 2:40 or 2:45 that just qualified at CIM
are going to be finishing Top Ten next month.
But for those that want to dream and believe...
I think the more interesting question is how many delusional subelite wannabes that DIDN'T make it to the trials still think they would've had a shot at top 3.
Jason Rahm?
Dean Karnazes?
Brandon Moen?
Love this thread. Lots of great material.
I find it interesting how so many of us focus not on the percentage of runners who think they can make it, but the percentage of runners WE think can make it. Not the question.
And I think the answer should very well be 100%. I am not running the trials. I've never even run a marathon yet. But you damn well better believe if I were qualified with a 2:18.59 I'd go in thinking, "There's always hope."
Personally, this thread (more generally this topic) inspires the hell out of me. It reminds me of all the times I've gone into races knowing the competition was MUCH better than me and said "There's always hope" before getting my butt handed to me. What did I learn? I need to hope harder.
As someone who has qualified for the trials, let me say that the likelihood of my being top 3 is about equal to the chances that I would vote for a Republican in the next presidential election--in other words there is no chance that it will happen.
It seems that there is this assumption that if you've made the trials and you're not going in with an attitude of "anything is possible" that you're somehow demeaning the integrity of the whole thing. I'll be giving it my all certainly, but I don't need to delude myself.
Hopeless? wrote:
As someone who has qualified for the trials, let me say that the likelihood of my being top 3 is about equal to the chances that I would vote for a Republican in the next presidential election--in other words there is no chance that it will happen.
It seems that there is this assumption that if you've made the trials and you're not going in with an attitude of "anything is possible" that you're somehow demeaning the integrity of the whole thing. I'll be giving it my all certainly, but I don't need to delude myself.
Well put, I admire guys that make it to the trials. If you're name is Galen Rupp or Ryan Hall and you're well sponsored you're supposed to be in the trials. The guy busting his @ss "living the dream", putting other parts of his life on hold, I admire that group of runners a lot.
Whatever their qualifying time, I bet a sizeable majority still have an image in the backs of their minds of them in Houston breaking the tape with their hands in the air, even if they would never admit to it or even if they would say on a conscious level that it's irrational to think they will make the team.
And that's a good thing-- if you think you will fail, you can always make sure you are right, but if you want to be successful, you have to be open to the possibility of success.
i'm a female who qualified with a 2:44 and am hoping to run somewhere in the 2:37 to 2:39 range at the trials. i'm friends with at least 15-20 other women who have qualified with anything from 2:38 to 2:45 and i can tell you that not one of us thinks for a single second that we have a shot at making the team. what we are hoping for is a positive, once in a lifetime experience and an opportunity to strive for our own personal goals, as insignificant as they might seem to some. also i've heard there's free food.
Women are too darned sensible.
The Durango Kid wrote:
Whatever their qualifying time, I bet a sizeable majority still have an image in the backs of their minds of them in Houston breaking the tape with their hands in the air, even if they would never admit to it or even if they would say on a conscious level that it's irrational to think they will make the team.
And that's a good thing-- if you think you will fail, you can always make sure you are right, but if you want to be successful, you have to be open to the possibility of success.
This is what I disagree with. Success, for 90% of this field, doesn't require being the mix for top 3 spots. For the vast majority of them, success would be a PR, or even a race that's in the ballpark of their qualifying time (given many of them are running two marathons inside of 3 months).
So why, as a 2:18 guy, go out with a race plan that all but guarantees failure (I'm thinking a sub 65-minute opening 1/2)? There's nothing that bothers me more than guys who go out way too hard, run with people that they shouldn't, die, and then say something like "at least I laid it on a line and took a shot." No, you didn't. You didn't lay anything on the line. You went out like a crazy person and sabotaged yourself to the point that it wasn't possible for you to do your best. If you've ever had teammates pull this crap you know how frustrating it is.
Not being a qualifier myself, I won't speak for them or pretend to tell them what to do. But I do know a couple of qualifiers pretty well, and I can tell you that they are much, much more sensible and realistic about what's going to happen out on the course than the people posting in this thread.
Wouldn't you think someone who ran a qualifying time in their first and only marathon (and there are some) would be most likley to pull off a big surprise.
plain as the ann on egg's face wrote:
i'm a female who qualified with a 2:44 and am hoping to run somewhere in the 2:37 to 2:39 range at the trials. i'm friends with at least 15-20 other women who have qualified with anything from 2:38 to 2:45 and i can tell you that not one of us thinks for a single second that we have a shot at making the team. what we are hoping for is a positive, once in a lifetime experience and an opportunity to strive for our own personal goals, as insignificant as they might seem to some. also i've heard there's free food.
Two thumbs up.
Nothing tastes better than free food!
may pole wrote:
Wouldn't you think someone who ran a qualifying time in their first and only marathon (and there are some) would be most likley to pull off a big surprise.
Who? I honestly don't think there are too many non-elites in this category, but I could be wrong.
113 wrote:
Who? I honestly don't think there are too many non-elites in this category, but I could be wrong.
Janet Cherobon-Bawcom?
Well, there's Maegan who ran a great time
at PDR in September.
She's never run a marathon,
but her half is equivalent to a sub 2:30,
which will give her a top ten finish.
Not bad for a 23 year old running her first marathon.
As for 2:44 female, hoping for 2:37-2:38...
was it poor conditions (hot and humid)?
or no competition that had you doing just
enough to qualify?
Yes, so many will be going for PB's
and we wish you luck, but it's a tall
order to go from running 6:15 miles for 26 miles
to running 6 minute miles.
Were you able to step it up and really go long
after that 2:44 marathon?
To a point where you know you are at another level in fitness?
What is your half PB?
Add 17 to 18 seconds per mile to that half pace and you will know what you can run for the full distance next month.
just curious, not hatin wrote:
What percentage of runners at the Olympic Trials Marathon think they have a chance at making top 3?
a general rule of thumb that i tell my athletes, is that whatever the honor is, double that number, and that's probably how many guys are capable of achieving it. Example: top 14 all conference in XC; there's probably 28 guys capable of finishing in the top 14.
however, when it gets down to the lower stages (top 3, top 5) you can double that number. Of course, the more elite the race is, you could probably triple that number.
so, there are 85 men qualified according to
http://www.houston2012.com/Athletes/M-Marathon.aspxand using my own personal opinion of top 3 x 3= 9 guys who are capable and reasonably should expect to finish in the top 3. 9 divided by 85= 10.5%.
What this guy said (below). If you're a 2:16+ guy you pretty much know where you stand..as being ranked in the US and in terms of what your training is pointing towards performance-wise at best. How many guys in the field could even go out with a 65:00 first half and hold on to 20 miles at that pace? You either risk "going for it" and totally dying and getting caught by the lead women - or you just run your race and try to PR and place as well as possible. People have asked me: "well why bother for top 20 when only 3 make the team?" Well, because you could say you were top 20 in the country at something thats why. If you go for it and die and finish 120th it will sound even worse (to some people). A lot of guys show up injured and a lot of guys show up overtrained. Some guys show up with the intention of probably DNFing. To kind of answer the OP probably 75% dream that they have a 1% shot at making the team.
113 wrote:
This is what I disagree with. Success, for 90% of this field, doesn't require being the mix for top 3 spots. For the vast majority of them, success would be a PR, or even a race that's in the ballpark of their qualifying time (given many of them are running two marathons inside of 3 months).
So why, as a 2:18 guy, go out with a race plan that all but guarantees failure (I'm thinking a sub 65-minute opening 1/2)? There's nothing that bothers me more than guys who go out way too hard, run with people that they shouldn't, die, and then say something like "at least I laid it on a line and took a shot." No, you didn't. You didn't lay anything on the line. You went out like a crazy person and sabotaged yourself to the point that it wasn't possible for you to do your best. If you've ever had teammates pull this crap you know how frustrating it is.
Not being a qualifier myself, I won't speak for them or pretend to tell them what to do. But I do know a couple of qualifiers pretty well, and I can tell you that they are much, much more sensible and realistic about what's going to happen out on the course than the people posting in this thread.
S. Canaday wrote:
Some guys show up with the intention of probably DNFing.
You'd know all about that, wouldn't you Sage?
In this video Brian Sell kind of says it at about 4:15 - probably everyone out there dreams of winning and getting a gold medal, but you still go out and try to run a time that makes sense given your fitness and ability even if the odds are it won't be enough to win.
I'd say most people have both things going on in their heads at the same time - hope and a dream of winning even if it isn't really justified, combined with a realistic plan based on their past performance.