BERLIN MARATHON ANALYSIS

Nutella, nothing is pretty obvious at the moment with Kenyan marathon runners. For example, Makau was the best last year, but in London was only 3rd (behind Martin Lel) with a gap from Emmanuel Mutai superior of one minute. After today, do you think that Patrick was really so much weaker than Mutai ? So, we can have a lot of speculations, but the only way for deciding is to put all the best together.

a) Boston : I continue to say the wind was not REALLY too strong during the first 35 km (the athletes, ALL, told me was sometimes against, and the most part of times on one side). Which is the real value of Geoffrey and Moses ion the same shape of Boston ? About Geoffrey, he was very much more self confident than last year against Makau, so was a better athlete. About Moses, nobody was able to show the same attitude (also mental) for marathon during the first approach, and in his record on track of 30k in Eugene (that is one of the biggest record of track, also if few people are able to understand how great it is) he was also better (and for Chicago, instead, he had to stop training during the month of July for a problem in his tendon, so his current shape is 80% of Eugene).

b) Emmanuel Mutai won London (fast but not like Berlin) in 2:04:40. Can we say TODAY he was weaker than the Makau of Berlin ?

c) How much stronger is the Makau of Berlin compared with the Makau of London, coming from an injury ?

d) In NY we have Geoffrey and Emmanuel Mutai, so one of the two becomes a loser, the other a winner (I don't see different solution with a third athlete winner). If the loser loses for 2-4 seconds (like last year Mutai against Makau), is it fair not to give him another chance during next spring ?

e) In Frankfurt Wilson Kipsang can run very close the WR. What if he run better than Emmanuel Mutai in London as time ?

f) Abel Kirui won two WCh for Kenya, and destroyed anybody in Daegu, with a negative split in warm conditions very significative. He need a chance against the other, for a matter of real value and of respect for what was able to produce for Kenya.

g) Next year, Sammy Kitwara wants to debut in Rotterdam, that is the faster course in the World (faster than Berlin). Because he has a lot of talent, may be pèossible running in perfect conditions under the WR of Makau.

Really, I don't see any fair decision out of a Trials with all the bests in the same marathon, and that marathon can be London only.

You have reason, technically speaking : if you are at 100% for London marathon, you can't see at 100% for Olympic. But this put ALL the Kenyan in the same conditions, and I can already say now that, in any case, in Olympic Kenyan marathoners go for all the medal, because they are too much strongetr than Ethiopian at the moment.

So, the list of possible selected can be as follows :

Patrick Makau

Geoffrey Mutai

Moses Mosop

Emmanuel Mutai

Abel Kirui

Wilson Kipsang

Wilson Chebet

Sammy Kitwara

Vincent Kipruto

.... and their result depends from the shape at the moment.

In all this group, I'm the coach of Moses Mosop and Abel Kirui, and advise Wilson Kipsang. Patrick Makauis self coached, Emmanuel Mutai is coached by Patrick Sang, Vincent Kipruto by William Kiplagat, Sammy Kitwara and Wilson Chebet follow a personal program they decide after speaking with other athletes.

Renato Canova wrote:

(and for Chicago, instead, he had to stop training during the month of July for a problem in his tendon, so his current shape is 80% of Eugene).

ah, hopefully he'll be close to 100% by october...Ryan Hall is going to give him more than he can handle!

Patrick Makau is self coached

incredible! has he always been self-coached, even when he was running 58' half-marathons??

Renato, it seemed to me that Makau could have gone 20 or 30 seconds faster had he been pushed by another runner able to compete with him over the last 12 km. How much faster could this current crop of Kenyans run in the next few years? 2:03? 2:02?

haile fan wrote:

it seemed to me that Makau could have gone faster had he been pushed by another runner able to compete with him at the end

You could say this with regards to just about every distance WR ever run.

Mrr82 wrote:

they would just lose out by putting some no name in there as their last guy instead of Haile..

Just like they lost out with the no-namer in the 10k at the WCs this year?

What does the SS12 stand for? Is Makau wearing just a regular Adios that anyone can buy? Thanks.

coach bigfoot wrote:

Just like they lost out with the no-namer in the 10k at the WCs this year?

Yes, because it would be exactly like that in every way.

NB Dickie wrote:

What does the SS12 stand for? Is Makau wearing just a regular Adios that anyone can buy? Thanks.

Yes, anyone can buy the updated adios. spring/summer 2012 is the launch date for the shoe, meaning January, 2012.

Cheers

Mike

lucetree wrote:

AIMS (

http://aimsworldrunning.org/world_records.htm

) lists the 30km road world record as:

1:27:49 (split) Haile Gebrselassie ETH Berlin 20-Sep-09

Was Makau leading at 30km or was it a pacemaker and if the latter, did he finish?

The pacemaker was leading, but I don't know his name (I don't think they said on commentary) and as far as I know he dropped out. So the way the rules work (I think) the pace maker can't get the record because he didn't finish. So Makau gets that record too.

(It's possible I suppose that the pacemaker jogged home realising he'd get the 30km record.)

Renato,

I understand your logic comparing those runners and who knows, maybe Makau is not even among the top 3 of Kenyan Marathon runners right now.

HOWEVER, I don't see a chance that Kenya would leave the current WR holder at home.

As for NYC, I didn't know BOTH Mutais would run there, and yeah, 90% probability one of them is going to be a loser. What would be needed for the other 10%? Both under current course record? Both 2:06? Both 2:05?

I agree with Renato on this one.

Of course Makau´s Berlin time is the world record, but that time it is not out of reach for several other Kenyans. So while Makau right now is in a good position to get a spot on the Kenyan Olympic team, it´s far from guaranteed.

And yes the London Marathon will be somewhat close to the Olympics, but not too close. I´d expect a few elites to run it ;).

On a different topic the Kenyans have gotten so far ahead of the Ethiopians this year and I don´t see that trend reverse next year.

Nutella1 wrote:

Renato,

I understand your logic comparing those runners and who knows, maybe Makau is not even among the top 3 of Kenyan Marathon runners right now.

HOWEVER, I don't see a chance that Kenya would leave the current WR holder at home.

Oops, didn´t see this post.

I also think that AK won´t leave Makau at home if he´s still the WR holder by the time the decision will be made, but the thing is that is a big IF.

rdn wrote:

Oops, didn´t see this post.

I also think that AK won´t leave Makau at home if he´s still the WR holder by the time the decision will be made, but the thing is that is a big IF.

Ok, that Makau is still the WR holder was my assumption behind my argument. There are very few chances to better the WR until London 2012: Frankfurt, Rotterdam. End of list (Chicago is not on it). Conditions in Berlin were near perfect. Maybe a bit warm but still great.

Renato Canova wrote:

Boston : I continue to say the wind was not REALLY too strong during the first 35 km

Of course, the wind was not TOO strong.

It was PERFECT.

So, we can agree, the wind was not TOO strong.

This is why Mutai and the others ran at least 2 MINUTES faster than they would have run on a legitimate (not downhll wind-aided) marathon course.

The Kenyans can lower the record in a few years to 2:02:38, but in Jeilan will be there to run 2:02:37!

Nutella1 wrote:

10. Athletics Kenya will have a tough job deciding who will go to London. As the WR holder, without a doubt Makau booked his ticket.

....and it's confirmed. The fact that Kirui will go, too, is probably a surprise but it's consequent. That guy represented his country while everyone else preferred a nice pay day. I don't think this is what Canova hoped for ...

Well I'm sure Canova isn't complaining; he coaches Kirui! But it's obvious that somebody is going to get shafted by AK.