Why Oregon will NOT qualify for NCAAs

ncaa predictioner · 2011-09-20T15:01:46-04:00

First things first. Rumors that Luke Puskedra is hurt Chris Kwiatkowski DNF against Gonzaga What is left: Stinson Verzbicas DeJarnette Hunt Watson Noelle Pickering Stanford and Portland will beat Oregon in the West Regional for the 2 auto spots. And Arizona/Arizona St will beat Oregon in the regional too. My predicted Auto Large Hopefuls: (13 spots to fill) Ohio State Notre Dame Michigan State Georgetown Penn State Navy Minnesota Illinois BYU Air Force New Mexico Providence Dartmouth Florida Texas A&M EKU UNC Louisville Oregon Arizona State Arizona I feel that after the october big meets are run with full rosters the rankings of these teams will be as follows: 1 Minnesota 2 BYU 3 Arizona 4 Louisville 5 Providence 6 EKU 7 Notre Dame 8 Georgetown 9 UNC 10Arizona State 11Ohio State 12New Mexico 13Dartmouth 14Penn State 15Oregon 16Texas A&M 17Air Force 18Florida 19Illinois 20Navy 21Michigan State

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14 years ago 09/23/2011 12:35am EDT

re: Unbiased observer

Unbiased observer wrote:
Here is a realistic scenario for Oregon at nationals (these are team points)
5 puskedra
25 verzbicas
60 Stinson
70 fleet ( he ran a 3:57 mile)
100 Kwiatkowski ( he ran 13:51 last year)
Total 260, that puts them at around 5th place
This is assuming nobody gets hurt cause they definitely are not a deep team. Also assuming nobody drops out or has a terrible race because this is probably the best case scenario for Oregon this year. I don't see any of the other freshman making an impact and them all redshirting cross country.
This team has no chance at winning the race, but they are still a very good team.

You're underrating Puskedra and Verzbicas. LV was faster than German in high school and German would have been top 10 in his frosh year. Puskedra is the top returning runner if Sambu redshirts. He is a legit contender. I'd say 3rd and 15th are a reasonable expectations for these guys. If a couple of those bottom guys step up, a podium finish isn't a stretch.

14 years ago 09/23/2011 10:23am EDT

re: thirty-two

thirty-two wrote:
Unbiased observer wrote:
Here is a realistic scenario for Oregon at nationals (these are team points)
5 puskedra
25 verzbicas
60 Stinson
70 fleet ( he ran a 3:57 mile)
100 Kwiatkowski ( he ran 13:51 last year)
Total 260, that puts them at around 5th place
This is assuming nobody gets hurt cause they definitely are not a deep team. Also assuming nobody drops out or has a terrible race because this is probably the best case scenario for Oregon this year. I don't see any of the other freshman making an impact and them all redshirting cross country.
This team has no chance at winning the race, but they are still a very good team.
You are probably right about Puskedra and Verzbicas, but between those two they could score about 20 points less, which isnt gonna make that big of a difference. Oregon really needs Fleet to run well like Centrowitz and be an all American, and not like Acosta and score over 100 points. Oregon's 4 and 5 guys is what is going to kill them.
You're underrating Puskedra and Verzbicas. LV was faster than German in high school and German would have been top 10 in his frosh year. Puskedra is the top returning runner if Sambu redshirts. He is a legit contender. I'd say 3rd and 15th are a reasonable expectations for these guys. If a couple of those bottom guys step up, a podium finish isn't a stretch.

14 years ago 10/15/2011 9:36pm EDT

re: Five man team

While the teams predicted are probably off aka Arizona is not that good as a team. But After the wisconsin meet it may not be too far fetched to say that Oregon may not make the national meet.

The West Region Rankings in my opinion now:

1 Stanford

2 Portland

3 Washington State

4 UCLA

5 Arizona State

5 Oregon

7 Cal Poly

8 Cal

9 Long Beach State

10 Washigton

14 years ago 10/18/2011 12:14am EDT

re: this forum may be right

Bump!

Bump bump bump!

Oregon is AWFUL!! Their 4 and 5 can't even break 25:00??

14 years ago 10/18/2011 9:31am EDT

re: why me

LV will be running better as he was still almost at the front at 5km in a hard race. However, the key is what 4 and 5 do (Stinson is fine). They have enough quality athletes that a couple of them will step up enough for them to get 3rd or 4th at Regionals, which might be what they are aiming at (so Pac-12 might be left as a race that does not provide further info because they are blowing it off as not important).

14 years ago 11/11/2011 2:38pm EST

re: 26mi235

The original poster may have the teams wrong but he may still be right that Oregon will not qualify for nationals!

14 years ago 11/11/2011 2:45pm EST

re: may be true!

the pac-12 results w/o LV counted become

Colorado 46

Stanford 52

Oregon 116

UCLA 119

Only beats UCLA by 3 pts

14 years ago 11/12/2011 8:32pm EST

re: too true

This thread starter has been proven right

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