5th Avenue Mile!!! Who ya got and why?!?!!

Willis.

With Commonwealths coming up he is hitting prime form.

I wish Wheating were in the race. He could compete well. Especially since he can run in a straight line. Nearly everytime he races he spends the majority of the race in lane 2 or 3. This race would serve him well in that regard.

For the men, I'm picking Willis based on his experience and stage of his season and, for the women, Donohue purely based on a hunch.

I debated with the thought that Willis is not yet strong enough to take down Lagat, but then remembered that Lagat's 1500 attempts this year have been less than fruitful, especially compared to the AR's at 3k/5k. Granted he hasn't run one in a while, but I think that only benefits Willis, or certainly Manzano and Laalou. I'll say Wills FTW...he is coming around nicely.

I'm surprised that the few responses on the ladies race have not mentioned Donahue. Everyone seems to hand the race to Shannon or Morgan, but Erin obviously had a fine season and beat Shannon more than once...(though not in a fast race I believe). Still, I think it will be interesting to see how the women play out and if it goes hard from the gun, we could see a great battle between Shannon and Morgan...with Sara Hall finishing like a half second behind them as she often does. Poor Sara Hall. God just wasn't quite good enough. :(

HUDDLE ; I think if she runs flat out from the gun she can take down the pure milers, winning time 4:29.

The All-seer wrote:

Lagat

Laalou

Manzano

Willis

Webb

Laalou looooooves getting second places. i feel like he got second in every diamond league race this summer and then finally won at the continental cup

Plagiarist...though I agree with the picks.

On the women's side, it's a weaker field, but you still have Rowbury and Uceny in there as well as relatively unknown 19 year old World indoor Champion in Ethiopian in Kalkidan Gezahegne. She hasn't raced outdoors after winning World Indoors, apparently. Donohue has been good this year, and huddle's obviously been great in the 5K. My prediction is

1. Rowbury

2. Uceny

3. Donohue

4. Huddle

Gezahegne is a huge dark horse, though. If she was in the form she was indoors, she probably would be the favorite even against Rowbury at what probably is Rowbury's best distance.

row row rowbury your boat wrote:

I'm surprised that the few responses on the ladies race have not mentioned Donahue. Everyone seems to hand the race to Shannon or Morgan, but Erin obviously had a fine season and beat Shannon more than once...(though not in a fast race I believe). Still, I think it will be interesting to see how the women play out and if it goes hard from the gun, we could see a great battle between Shannon and Morgan...with Sara Hall finishing like a half second behind them as she often does. Poor Sara Hall. God just wasn't quite good enough. :(

Donohue beat Rowbury twice in very slow races. She has proven her kick this year. In a fast paced race, Donohue has faded in the final meters. If this is a fast pace, and I understand it should be because they are putting up a bonus for whoever leads at the half way point, then Rowbury should prevail. If it is a slow race, anyone could win it.

Ok, so

Winner 2007: Alan Webb

Winner 2008: Nick Willis

Winner 2009: Andy Baddeley

Andrew Baddeley won this race last year in somewhere around 3:51.8, but he's run 13:20 and 7:42 more recently, so I don't think he's run any fast 1500m/miles this summer, so he probably will not be in as good of 1500m shape as he was last year; nonetheless, he should still be considered as much a threat as Webb.

Secondly, Laalou just won a strategic 1500m race at the track cup meet in wherever, and he is the world champ, so I would think that most people would put him in the company of Lagat and Willis, or visa-versa really.

So here is how I think it could pan out:

Lagat (3:32 and 7:29 this summer)

Laalou (world cup whatever 1500m champ, world champ)

Willis (has won a couple mid-d track races, shaping into good form)

Manzano (3:32 1500m, more consistent this year)

Webb (comeback time)

Baddeley (?)

Granted, this is not a track race, and I'm not sure Laalou has ever run this race before, which can be kind of tricky since there is an uphill and a downhill and no curves but asphalt instead, so it's quite different from racing on the track, and those who have run it and won it probably know how to run this race better from having the experience. Baddeley may very well do better than Webb, but Webb has a vicious improvement curve taking place right now, so it's easy to underestimate him.

Laalou World Champ? Where are you getting that? He was 10th at 1500m and 5th at 800m in 2009.

Willis really understands this specific race, as is obvious from his interview comments, and he is experienced at it. I've seen it almost every year and I know that some newcomers (Laalou is new to this race) don't warm to it or adjust to it at all. Abdi Bile didn't like it one bit.

purespeed wrote:

I just dont see lagat having the turnover late in the race to hold off the faster kickers like manzano and willis. these two with A.L will fight for the win. webb will prolly finish close behind lagat for 5th, maybe nip him at the end but it depends on how close he is to him w/ 50m to go.

totally! With crappy season bests at 3:32 and 7:29 we should write Hume off. Speed is gone. End of story. What book are you reading?

irun wrote:

Andrew Baddeley won this race last year in somewhere around 3:51.8, but he's run 13:20 and 7:42 more recently, so I don't think he's run any fast 1500m/miles this summer, so he probably will not be in as good of 1500m shape as he was last year; nonetheless, he should still be considered as much a threat as Webb.

Yes, but the difference is that Andrew Baddely isn't 'BACK!!!', whereas Webb most definitely is.

Well isn't that nice wrote:

totally! With crappy season bests at 3:32 and 7:29 we should write Hume off. Speed is gone. End of story. What book are you reading?

I have Lagat as the favorite given his experience, and his record in unpaced races. Still, the fact that he got beaten by 3 seconds by Laalou in Monaco, and by even more in the mile at the Pre Classic is of concern. 3000-5000 this year he has been outstanding, but the 1500/mile is a different animal. I have faith in him (after all, he was bronze in the event last year), but I won't be shocked if Laalou, Manzano or Willis can get him.

I won't be shocked if Laalou, Manzano or Willis can get him.

I'll take Webb, mainly because I would just love to see him win, but also to a much lesser degree because I think it's possible. He took 4 seconds off his 800m time in what, 2 weeks? 4 weeks? Either way, he was improving fast, and he was right in there with the bunch in that last race with Willis. I think he has an outside shot.

The runner with the highest probability of winning is... I really can't say! Manzano has run 3:30. Willis is is a very strong kicker and coming off a win. Lagat is Lagat, nuff said. Should be a great race.

Agree 100% with this pick. Running on a straight negates Lagat's biggest advantage - knowing how to put himself in exactly the right position for the kick. Also, helps Manzano who always just misses because he kicks too late.

TMoney wrote:

Manzano

Laaloo

Willis

Lagat

Webb

Those are my totally biased, unresearched predictions. Grote would be proud.

Oops, this is it.

There's really no basis at all for placing Webb ahead of Willis; there recently history is pretty much the same except, umm, for the fact that Willis has had significantly superior results. I think most of you know this and are just funning with us all.

So it won't be Webb. I suspect it won't be Lagat. I have no idea how Laalou is going to handle this road mile the first time out. I suspect the race is between Willis and Manzano.

1981 race:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAnHs6eTYgU

I'll go with the best tactician for the difficult to judge road mile - Lagat