There have been a lot of good posts here and I'm not here to debate whether Lucas should focus solely on running or whether he has a shot at the triathlon team for London. However, everyone is missing one CRUCIAL piece of data. Lucas was penalized 15 seconds at the finished for misplaced gear in T1. So, without the penalty he would have been 3rd only 6 seconds behind the world champion.
Everyone here seems to be ignoring the fact that Verzbiskas is a Lithuanian citizen. It probably won't be all that hard to make their team.
Maybe for track. For triathlon he'd have to be ranked like top 75 in world. He better get on that, points started last June and he's not even pro yet.
sleeeper wrote:
Lucas was penalized 15 seconds at the finished for misplaced gear in T1. So, without the penalty he would have been 3rd only 6 seconds behind the world champion.
Didn't know that until your post, but found this:
http://www.usatriathlon.org/news/2010/09/12/mcdowell-claims-bronze-to-lead-u-s-juniors-in-budapest/38499?ngb_id=12So does that mean he really ran 15:05 plus 15 seconds penalty to get the 15:20 run split? It's not clear to me where the penalty time is accumulated in the results sheet.
In any case, he still needs to swim well enough to make the first group in order to compete at the pro levels, as a number of people have observed above.
Yeah, so they changed it for this year. Though Jarrod got in because he was the top American at the Beijing course. He was already ranked high enough on the points list to get into that race. It wasn't that he was totally out of nowhere, it's just that he was off the radar for most americans - who only know the triathletes that are in every single ad or on wheaties boxes.
The qualification standards were just announced, but few were surprised.
USA Triathlon Announces Selection Procedures For 2012 Olympic Games
The ITU World Championship series race on the Olympic course in London on August 6-7, 2011 will be the first chance to qualify. The top two male and female American finishers will automatically receive spots on the team. The catch is that both athletes must also finish in the top-nine overall.
If there are spots remaining, the next spots will go to the top male and female of a spring WCS ITU race in early 2012 (also given that he/she finishes within the overall top-nine). If the U.S. has earned spots beyond those handed out in those two events, a selection committee will determine the final Olympians.
Another major difference is there will be no formal U.S. Olympic Trials race. All athletes will have to qualify at an ITU World Championship or Cup race.
Basically that means you need to be ranked in top 6 in the US to get into those races. Rankings are the accumulation of 2 years worth of performances.
Top Ranked US guys now that are already COMPLETE triathletes by current world ranking
Shoemaker
Chrabot
Ben Collins
Manny Huarta
Greg Bennet
Chris Foster
Kevin Collington
Kemper
Matty Reed
Mark Fretta
Reed, Kemper, Potts are all pretty far down in the rankings, and I'd still put my money on them over LV. There's definitely a crop of up and coming guys, but it won't include LV for London, though 2016 seems very possible.
Citizen Runner wrote:
Didn't know that until your post, but found this:
http://www.usatriathlon.org/news/2010/09/12/mcdowell-claims-bronze-to-lead-u-s-juniors-in-budapest/38499?ngb_id=12So does that mean he really ran 15:05 plus 15 seconds penalty to get the 15:20 run split? It's not clear to me where the penalty time is accumulated in the results sheet.
In any case, he still needs to swim well enough to make the first group in order to compete at the pro levels, as a number of people have observed above.
I think he actually ran 15:05 and the extra 15 seconds was added on there.
He is not going to be an Olympic champion do some results...search Brownlee and Gomez retard.
I also agree with a lot of peoples posts about his running is the best of his stages in the Tri. In the olympics everything is basically doubled. So if he is 15 seconds behind on the swim...what would he be if the race is doubled...along with the bike. How many kids actually do the triathlon in high school who probably would be good at it. You really have to pic one or the other. Also, what is he going to tell his college coach...well I'm only going to run 50 miles a week and take off a meet here and there cause i have a tri meet. There is a ton of hype around this kid because of the media who really does not know what they are talking about. I swam a 4:58 500 yard freestyle in high school and 15:48 5k. Would this make me a good Junior Triathlete.
Gwen won a Big 10 indoor double at the 3000/5000 -- over Franek, Bizzarri and others even though she had only been running college track for less than two years. She was a swimmer at Wisconsin before that. She can come out of the water with the best of them and, with 15:50s 5000 credentials, bicycling is the biggest hurdle for her technically. However, she has the base to be able to spend many hours on the bike... She should get out of the water quickly enough so that she can draft on the bike and then out-run almost everyone.
"After Gwen Jorgensen won the 2010 Crazy Legs Classic in a record time, it was an easy leap to conclude the former college All-American was racing to extend her career as an elite runner, possibly in pursuit of the Olympics.
Jorgensen herself is making a leap, but to an entirely different sport.
USA Triathlon recruited the 2009 University of Wisconsin – Madison graduate into a year-old elite athlete development program. Jorgensen, 24, is one of nine athletes being coached to turn their natural talent into Olympic success in 2012 or 2016.
...
n March, she placed 8th in a USA Triathlon elite development race in Clermont, Fla.
It was her first triathlon."
2010 Valencia FISU 10th World University Triathlon Championships : Elite Women : Results
She gives up 25 seconds in transitions and comes in second by 9 seconds, and had to work her way up on the bike because of the transition time.
Pos First Name Last Name Country Time Swim T1 Bike T2 Run
1 Agnieszka Jerzyk POL PL 1:55:19 0:19:17 0:01:43 0:59:54 0:00:30 0:33:55
2 Gwen Jorgensen USA US 1:55:26 0:19:29 0:02:04 1:01:39 0:00:39 0:31:35
3 Annamaria Mazzetti ITA IT 1:55:45 0:19:16 0:01:48 0:59:52 0:00:29 0:34:20
4 Marine Bonnetaud FRA FR 1:57:58 0:19:16 0:01:43 0:59:56 0:00:34 0:36:29
5 Anna Grzesiak POL PL 1:58:26 0:19:07 0:01:49 1:00:01 0:00:27 0:37:02
6 Paulina Kotfica POL PL 1:58:34 0:19:14 0:01:48 0:59:57 0:00:32 0:37:03
7 Estefania Dominguez ESP ES 1:58:44 0:19:17 0:01:46 1:02:10 0:00:33 0:34:58
8 Alexandra Tondeur BEL BE 1:58:47 0:20:38 0:01:47 1:00:42 0:00:29 0:35:11
9 Tamara Stonova CZE CZ 1:58:58 0:18:02 0:01:52 1:01:04 0:00:39 0:37:21
10 Gaia Peron ITA IT 1:59:23 0:18:03 0:01:51 1:01:04 0:00:27 0:37:58
11 Victoria Perez VEN VE 2:00:04 0:19:34 0:01:54 1:01:40 0:00:31 0:36:25
12 Jessica Broderick USA US 2:00:06 0:19:19 0:02:05 1:01:47 0:00:30 0:36:25
13 Lauren Goldstein- Kral USA US 2:00:39 0:19:23 0:02:02 1:01:48 0:00:33 0:36:53
sleeeper wrote:
There have been a lot of good posts here and I'm not here to debate whether Lucas should focus solely on running or whether he has a shot at the triathlon team for London. However, everyone is missing one CRUCIAL piece of data. Lucas was penalized 15 seconds at the finished for misplaced gear in T1. So, without the penalty he would have been 3rd only 6 seconds behind the world champion.
So, as a high school senior (a young one; he's what, 17?), he could easily have finished 3rd in the world junior meet, 6 seconds off 1st--AGAINST A FIELD THAT CAN BE AS OLD AS 20? If a high school runner finished 3rd in world junior xc, this board would be lit up like Christmas. Typically, being competitive as a young junior indicates the potential to be competitive as a senior. So, let's say in 13 years, when he's 30, at his physical prime, significantly stronger than he is now, and with eminently greater ability to swim and bike, why wouldn't he be in contention for world champion/Oly champion? The 2016, 2020, and 2024 Games seem like perfectly legitimate chances for him to take home a big-time medal.
Yeah agreed. Just not 2012 like he and his coach keep saying.
For the poster that brought up Gwen - yeah she's a stud. Fairly certain she was all american in XC in her first season of running ever, and can throw down a 33 min 10k at the end of a triathlon. Pretty insane. On top of crushing races this year, I'm pretty sure she works full time as an accountant.
Once she learns to bike, she'll be pretty unstoppable.
To all those who think it is absol;utely mandatory to be a world class swimmer to win top tris-as a kiwi, let me give you some info about the last tri gold medelalist(h Carter) and a former world champion(Docherty)-these guys were NEVER strong swimmers in our country which has a strong swimming heritage(meaning nearly ALL kids can swim.-but they worked their arses off in the swim section to always plan to come out of the water never more than 30 secs down and latch on to the main bunch and see what deveoped on the run. Neither of the guys would have come close to the running talent that LV posseses
26mi235 wrote:
2010 Valencia FISU 10th World University Triathlon Championships : Elite Women : Results
Pos First Name Last Name Country Time Swim T1 Bike T2 Run
1 Agnieszka Jerzyk POL PL 1:55:19 0:19:17 0:01:43 0:59:54 0:00:30 0:33:55
2 Gwen Jorgensen USA US 1:55:26 0:19:29 0:02:04 1:01:39 0:00:39 0:31:35
Are we supposed to believe she ran 31:35 after swimming a mile and biking 40K ? Will someone please explain to me why they can't EVER measure the run portion of triathlon correctly?
I agree with many of your points.
And to all the other people questioning LV's decision to do triathlon, or his ability to be world class in it someday....
HE JUST CAME IN 4th IN WORLD JR's to 3 guys OLDER than him!
AND....his b'day I think is Jan, so if jr's means 19 for the whole calendar year, he has TWO more years as a junior (he will be 18 for all of 2011, and 19 for 2012).
Bottom line: he will very likely, barring anything disastrous, become world junior triathlon champion next year or the year after. So....
Does anyone SERIOUSLY think he could be come world junior 5k or 10k track and field champion in the next year? Obviously not. And....
Are people seriously questioning the ability/potential of someone in their chosen sport who is likely to become world junior champ??
IF so, strange, very strange indeed.
I don't have a good explanation about why they never measure them accurately, but they're usually up front about it. They acknowledged the FISA course was short. Times are less important in tris because no one ever compares times across courses. All that matters is who you're racing on that day. That said, drafting tri courses tend to be more accurate for whatever reason.
Yeah actually it seems this thread has evolved. I don't think anyone's arguing whether or not he should do tris at this point. The more interesting question, given the impossibility of him making the 2012 team, is what he should focus on until 2016. Just tris? Running? Both?
he's doing triathlons because, as he's said, its less competitive than running so he has a better shot at an olympic medal.
right now, people on triathlon message boards are asking why he's wasting his time with running
Sir Lance-alot wrote:
HE JUST CAME IN 4th IN WORLD JR's to 3 guys OLDER than him!
AND....his b'day I think is Jan, so if jr's means 19 for the whole calendar year, he has TWO more years as a junior (he will be 18 for all of 2011, and 19 for 2012).
So, in 2 years he will be the oldest guy in the field but today he got beat by guys 3 years older than him? Somehow that doesn't add up.
A little math wrote:
Sir Lance-alot wrote:HE JUST CAME IN 4th IN WORLD JR's to 3 guys OLDER than him!
AND....his b'day I think is Jan, so if jr's means 19 for the whole calendar year, he has TWO more years as a junior (he will be 18 for all of 2011, and 19 for 2012).
So, in 2 years he will be the oldest guy in the field but today he got beat by guys 3 years older than him? Somehow that doesn't add up.
Reading seems to be your issue. 3 of the guys in front of him are older than him, not that the people in front are 3 years older.
That's all well and good, but if he is not a US citizen it does not matter. He would have to qualify for Lithuania.
I am not clear on how triathlon start positions are allocated, but I assume that start positions are earned based on world rankings and no Lithuanian is in the top 150. So I doubt Lithuania would even have earned a start position.
If they had a start position, it would be pretty hard to give it to Lukas over the person(s) who had earned the start position.