Could Bekele break 15:30 for the 5K off of 5 miles a week?

I'll say no. My friend had a 5K PR of 14:49 way back in college. He quit competitive running, and he said that he didn't do much to stay fit besides the occasional two mile run and a couple of strides once or twice a week.

A few years later, both of us ran in a local 5K race for fun. Guess what? He couldn't even get under 19 minutes. If he couldn't run within four minutes of his 5K PR after some time off, I don't think Bekele could run within three minutes of his PR.

15:30 is not fast. There are plenty of runners who can run that fast with absolutely no training. There are plenty of high school freshman in the US who run that fast with very minimal training. I know it sucks to hear that for all you people running 80 mile weeks who can't run that fast. I basically just slept on the high jump pits my freshman year and broke 10 for 2 miles. Another freshman I knew broke 9:30 off of about 25 miles a week at most. 5 minute pace doesn't require any real leg speed or endurance if you have a decent level of talent.

Captain Stagnetti wrote:

I ran low 16s on a 5k (accurate but easy) XC course my freshman year of high school off of virtually no training. I don't consider myself particularly talented either.

I hate when people say shit like this. Yes, you are talented. Maybe you don't have world-record breaking talent, but you definitely talented. Jesus. It took me a couple years of training to run 18:xx.

Now let's say that after your freshman year you started training your ass off and consistently ran high mileage into your mid 20s but only improved your PR to low 15s. That might suggest that you're not terribly talented, but I seriously doubt that's the case. What did you do after your freshman year?

the black cactus ran 15:20 in his first race ever. and abdi is no bekele. 15:30 no problem

if you think 15:30 is fast, maybe it is time to hang them up

Captain Stagnetti wrote:

15:30 is not fast. There are plenty of runners who can run that fast with absolutely no training.

Saying that Bekele can get a 15:30 5K off of 5 MPW is one thing, but saying that there are a whole bunch of guys who can run that fast off of no training is ridiculous.

The high school girls record for 5K is slower than 15:30. Do you seriously think that the gender advantage is so big that a lot of out of shape guys can beat talented girls who have been training their ass off for years?

To put it another way, a 15:30 5K is about equivalent to a 4:10-4:15 1500. Even when they're fresh, many decathletes can't even run under that time for that distance. These decathletes are some of the fittest guys in the world, and if they can't do it off of some training, do you believe that there are a bunch of guys who can run that fast without doing any physical activity at all?

If so, you are one delusional person.

Decathletes are obviously not comparable to real distance runners. I ran Division 1 cross country and most of my teammates had pretty similar backgrounds, which is why I'm saying I wouldn't call myself super talented. There are kids all over the place who run low 16s for 5k in their freshman year of HS, probably anyone on a d1 team was close to this or was a late developer. I did play soccer and things before then so I wouldn't say I was out of shape, but I didn't train at at all really to run that fast. I ran more like 17:30 on tougher courses. Like I said before, 15:30 is just not that fast. I was able to put together 2 5:00 miles without serious training but 5:00 miles are 75 second 400s.

There are a shitload of kenyans and ethiopians that could go out and run 15:30 on any given day.

and yes there are people who can run 4:10 to 4:15 for 1500 with very little training. There are tons of freshmen who run around 4:25-4:30 for the mile with pretty limited training. Yes, they are talented but world class runners are way, way beyond this level.

this is the dumbest question ever. the man ran a 12:37 and comes from the ethiopian highlands. its in his genome to run sub 15. does a cheetah need to train to run 60 mph? no, it just f***ing does it.

so physiologically, 15:30 would be no problem for bekele. the real question is whether the degree of effort would shock him psychologically. that is the only way he could possibly fail.

I agree

whole bunch of bull wrote:

Saying that Bekele can get a 15:30 5K off of 5 MPW is one thing, but saying that there are a whole bunch of guys who can run that fast off of no training is ridiculous.

I agree. There are two different points being made in this thread.

1) Some are saying Bekele could do it mainly because it's so much slower than his PR. Most people could run within 3 minutes of their 5k PR on 5mpw. There's some slight differences in this camp. Some in this camp are saying one could do this 3 minute difference "cold" some are saying the 5mpw can make a big difference. You can race a 5k every week and do a 4x800 in the middle of the week and it'll get you within 3 minutes of your PR.

2) Then there are the people who are saying that 15:30 is almost dime a dozen.... Bekele is the best and he easily could run 15:30 off 5 mpw, since so many good but "less talented" people can run 15:30 with ease.

For the most part I'm going with camp 1. Unless you are talking about a small sub population of East Africans, 15:30 is NOT dime a dozen. I'd wager that it's better than 90% of the population could ever run no matter how they train. A 15:30 isn't world class but it still takes way above average genetic freakiness to achieve. Don't forget how pathetically slow most people in the population are. Even an average college XC team is composed mainly of genetic freaks.

The 3 minute rule takes into account almost everyone of all abilities. There are always going to be exceptions but I bet MOST people could be within 3 minutes of their 5k PR on 5 mpw of hard running. I don't think most people could do it cold though.

For me, even 5mpw makes a huge difference in basic fitness. I ran a 5:38 mile on no training. Four months later after about 6 mpw of training I ran 4:47. Granted the 5k takes more endurance but still 5mpw should make a difference.

There's also another possibility: Bekele can't run fast untrained, but he got to the top because he is a super-responder who rarely gets injured.

Back in middle school, two of my friends ran the mile in gym class without much training. One of them ran in the low 7's, while the other was able to break 6 with ease. We all went to the same high school, so both of them did the same training (40-50 MPW for base, intervals 2-3 times a week during race season).

You know what happened by the time they graduated? The 7 minute guy got his time down to the 4:20's, while the other runner barely got under five. Bekele could be one of those super-responders who can't run fast without any training, but dramatically improves after more mileage and intervals are added. He may not be able to run a 15:30 untrained, but 5MPW might be enough to get him under that time.

I agree with the notion that some people are super responders to training. However, your example of a mid-school to high school comparison includes too many other potential variables. The most obvious is that perhaps they both matured differently and it had little to do with the training or how they respond. The guy who didn't improve could have gotten much bigger/heavier later or had already matured earlier in mid school. Whereas the initially slow dude could have matured later, had his heart develop later etc.

The true test to see if someone is a super responder would be after they have stopped growing/maturing.

In the book Daniels' Running Formula, Jack Daniels says we are limited to approximately 20%-25% improvement from training. He's talking about V02 max, but because V02 is related to actual running speed, it comes to almost the same thing.

Imagine a young, healthy, non-running but active 18 year old. He goes down to the track, sees some guys doing interval miles and joins them for the last one. He runs his heart out and clocks 5mins flat. Daniels is saying that with a couple of years of training, he could become a 4 minute miler. Of course, if his pre-training best was 6 minutes, his potential best would be about 4min50. All in all, it sounds about right to me.

'this is the dumbest question ever. the man ran a 12:37 and comes from the ethiopian highlands. its in his genome to run sub 15. does a cheetah need to train to run 60 mph? no, it just f***ing does it.'

A lot of athletes who have not 'just started training; are at school and generally running around playing or doing other sports. Then they have done a couple of months proper training – you can do a lot in that time. Of course Bekele has physical advantages even over his compatriots) but if you took away his early childhood born at altitude -and he never trained at all then did 5 miles a week jogging and nothing else at all? Well I'm not sure of his time but it would be a lot slower than you imagine. Top athletes do have inborn advantages, but a lot of that is how their body responds to training

The cheetah does train to run 60mph. It’s called playing when younger, all those miles following it’s mother. Then mother the catches small prey and let's the cub chase it. Of course there is skill to catching not just speed - even that is gained through practice – again that’s what training is! Even as an adult it requires several runs before it claims a kill, Again this is not deliberate training but is still doing a lot more than one sprint for a kill every few days

Finally, you don't see a cheetah unable to do 60mph because it has ******g starved to death!

In the book Daniels' Running Formula, Jack Daniels says we are limited to approximately 20%-25% improvement from training. He's talking about V02 max, but because V02 is related to actual running speed, it comes to almost the same thing.

Imagine a young, healthy, non-running but active 18 year old. He goes down to the track, sees some guys doing interval miles and joins them for the last one. He runs his heart out and clocks 5mins flat. Daniels is saying that with a couple of years of training, he could become a 4 minute miler. Of course, if his pre-training best was 6 minutes, his potential best would be about 4min50.

Bekele has run 12min37 for 5k. That's 14.7mph and it's 23% faster than the 12mph he needs to have run 15min30 before starting training. Sounds about right to me.

2 words... Andrew Wheating

And Ithink kb has more natural talent

When I was in elementary school I could run a 6 flat mile in my Keds sneakers and school clothes off of 0 miles per week. Freshman year of hs I ran under 20 minutes for 5k minutes off of very little training (5-10 mpw). I'm a girl and am sure I am not as talented as Bekele so I don't think that is too far fetched.

Would he be allowed to wear a fanny pack to stash his gels for the 15:30 5K attempt? If the answer is yes, I'm pretty sure he could go sub-15:30. I doubt he'd even need more than two gels, he's got that much natural ability.

Nigel wrote:

Imagine a young, healthy, non-running but active 18 year old. He goes down to the track, sees some guys doing interval miles and joins them for the last one. He runs his heart out and clocks 5mins flat. Daniels is saying that with a couple of years of training, he could become a 4 minute miler. Of course, if his pre-training best was 6 minutes, his potential best would be about 4min50.

Bekele has run 12min37 for 5k. That's 14.7mph and it's 23% faster than the 12mph he needs to have run 15min30 before starting training. Sounds about right to me.

That doesn't work for everyone, though. My mile PR is 4:36, and I couldn't break 6 minutes on my first few attempts without any training. I joined track rather late (junior year of high school), so physical maturity wasn't the main reason for my improvement.

greaterny wrote:

2 words... Andrew Wheating

And Ithink kb has more natural talent

The 5K is a whole different animal, though. It's easy to run a very fast time for the sprints or the 800 without training, since speed is almost entirely based on genetics and can't be taught much.

The distance events, on the other hand, are very difficult to succeed in if you don't put a lot of effort into it. I don't think that anyone would claim that some people can run a 2:35 marathon without training, even though that's about as impressive as a 15:30 5K.