Predictions for Ritz at London?

2:06:58 - 8th place.

His half-marathon best, 1:01:35 from January, suggests he might be able to break 2:10. If he has a very good day he might get around 2:09 flat or into the high 2:08's.

Only two Americans--KK and Hall--have ever broken 2:08:30! This should give one pause, nevertheless, I think Ritz will get under this, weather permitting.

Ritz will run around 2:07:40. He will probably finish around 7th or 8th. His performance will be highly encouraging, yet slightly below Hall's 2008 performance. Ritz represents a strong step forward in US marathoning, yet the top Africans are running 2:04.

Montesquieu wrote:

NONSENSE. Nowhere has Hudson ever said Ritz will run 2:03. If you have any link to support your claim, present it. What Hudson has said is that Ritz can run 2:06-:07. Ritz himself has said he will not be able to go out in 62, and thus he will not be near the lead group. With luck, there will be a pacemaker going through the half at 63, which is where Ritz wants to be.

SENSE. You don't have to have a link to be witness to this kind of rampant conceit that comes out of Hudson...

63 is too fast as well. He should go out in 64:00, no faster. If he feels good off of 64, then come back in 63:30 - which would be a very very good race for him.

If he goes out in 63, he'll run 2:10 or slower.

I'll say it. 2:03:58 WR

I take it by your response that you in fact have no link confirming that Hudson ever said Ritz could run 2:03. Furthermore, speaking of conceit, since you've never trained with Ritz, probably never seen him train (other than on Flotrack), have no detailed knowledge of his training in terms of overall mileage, intensity, variation, etc., it is just a bit conceited to claim how Ritz should run his race in London and that if he goes out in 63, he'll come back in 67 or worse. Based on the workout up on Flotrack, Ritz looks in great shape. How that will translate in London, no one knows, but I sure hope he runs fast.

nytrules wrote:

Montesquieu wrote:

NONSENSE. Nowhere has Hudson ever said Ritz will run 2:03. If you have any link to support your claim, present it. What Hudson has said is that Ritz can run 2:06-:07. Ritz himself has said he will not be able to go out in 62, and thus he will not be near the lead group. With luck, there will be a pacemaker going through the half at 63, which is where Ritz wants to be.

SENSE. You don't have to have a link to be witness to this kind of rampant conceit that comes out of Hudson...

63 is too fast as well. He should go out in 64:00, no faster. If he feels good off of 64, then come back in 63:30 - which would be a very very good race for him.

If he goes out in 63, he'll run 2:10 or slower.

nytrules wrote:

SENSE. You don't have to have a link to be witness to this kind of rampant conceit that comes out of Hudson...

63 is too fast as well. He should go out in 64:00, no faster. If he feels good off of 64, then come back in 63:30 - which would be a very very good race for him.

If he goes out in 63, he'll run 2:10 or slower.

Agree.

On the pacing part that is. I don't know Hudson and think that anonymous potshots lack character. And if Ritz does somehow go 2:06, it's time someone started throwing props to the coach. But, if Ritz gets sucked into something like a 1:02:45 pace through the half, he's done and off the back to God only knows where. Remember, he has yet to crack 1:01 for the half, even if he is in shape to do it at peak. Hall cracked 1:00 without sharpening for it.

I think he will run 2:09:xx, for somewhere around 10th place. All the articles I've seen say he is going with the B group pacers (2:06-2:07), but given the likely chance of poor weather and his recently stated "calf problem" I don't think 2:06-2:07 will happen. Hope I'm wrong though!

I predict one of two things - Ritz will drop out around 21 miles with a calf injury or if he finishes, will run 2:07:45.

I agree with most but how is Halls American record in the half better than a 2:06 mid? I would say a sub 1 hr is a superior performance. That's just me.

I wanted to further add that according to McMillan http://www.mcmillanrunning.com/cgi-bin/calculations.pl Halls AR of 59:43 is equal to a 2:05:57 and Halls Marathon P.R. is 2:06:17 thus not proving that he gets better as the distance goes. Just saying.

The weather forecast as of today, both from weather.com and the Weather Underground, looks great.

pnw runner wrote:

I think he will run 2:09:xx, for somewhere around 10th place. All the articles I've seen say he is going with the B group pacers (2:06-2:07), but given the likely chance of poor weather and his recently stated "calf problem" I don't think 2:06-2:07 will happen. Hope I'm wrong though!

Actually a more accurate predictor is the IAAF scoring tables:

http://www.iaaf.org/mm/Document/Competitions/TechnicalArea/ScoringOutdoor2008_742.pdf

Hall's time of 59:43 for the half yields between 1251 and 1252 points, which predicts a marathon of 2:06:41 - 2:06:45.

2:08:49

2:08:14

7th.

If Benji Durden can run 2:09:xx, Ritz is capable of a 2:07.

But, Ritz will run 2:09. He always lets us down.

He's going to get wet and cold - gusts of up to 32 mph!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/london_forecast_weather.html