Sharks have been seen in the distance , now they will come closer in for a possible kill , the sharks to worry about are agents , wanting the kid to turn pro. He's good but he needs time and development.
He needs some practical advice not the big rush to get into all the big meets , not to chase around europe , not to bow to the pressure of $$$ , records and fame.
If your close to him ,protect him , all of the above will follow in due course.
ak4runnin wrote:
i would give him around 13:25 this year. if you look at the daniels table his mile and 3k are almost perfectly matched up. so if he improves to a 3:53 mile which is a 3:36 1500 (based on daniels table) that would put his 5k time at 13:26. i think daniels knows a bit more than everyone on this thread so im gonna go with his predictions. so if he is a little better at the longer stuff maybe he can pull out a low 13:20s. but i willbe surprized if he breaks 13:20. but then again he has surprized me before.
Yea Rupp also \"only\" ran 7:44 this indoor season then went out and ran 13:18 the very next week. Based off that 5k I would have expected him to be around 7:38-7:40. Look at Alistair Cragg, was a consistent sub 7:40 guy indoors but never broke 13:20 in the 5k (indoors). Given Fernandez 5k potential, I have him pegged around 13:15 this year
I think Fernandez will bang heads with Rupp at least once outdoors, but I'd like to see him stick to the shorter races for now. Putting himself out there in a 5k too soon seems like a poor idea considering his injury history.
The real upcoming question: is he going to focus on NCAAs, or will he really try to go for WXC?
You are correct that agents are sharks but you are crazy if you think he needs to stay in the NCAA for development. Where is he going to develop? Who is going to be his competition?
He is CRAZY if he doesn't take the big contract and turn pro. School will be paid for and he will have money. He will develop just fine against people that are at his level and higher. He is THAT good. He showed it yesterday and he is not even a miler. Every month he is not accepting a salary is that much down the drain. Whoever is advising him needs to pull their heads out of their ass. If Smith actually cared about him he would say "It was nice having you but it is time to go."
He ran his 3K while sick, and ran only for the win/to break 7:50. Plus they ran a huge negative. He can probably go low 7:40's right now. Compare that on Daniels' list. Probably in the mid/high 13:teens.
This is a guy who just ran faster than anyone else ever has in the mile indoors...while not really being a "miler"...
fernnie wrote:
This is a guy who just ran faster than anyone else ever has in the mile indoors...while not really being a "miler"...
Anyone who runs 3:55 indoors at age 18 is a miler.
What if he runs 13:20 as an 18 year old?
............. wrote:
What if he runs 13:20 as an 18 year old?
Then he's a 5K runner too. You can be both.
Realistic Cynic wrote:
lol@tards wrote:3 months actually... i know, i know, you're just a neanderthal...
Yeah, but it was over 12 weeks, I saw the scrawls on the cave wall.
Fernandez is putting up the times. Can he help get more interest in running in this country? He's latino so the media will kiss his ass. Maybe the sport will finally get a bit more air-time.
He's a distance runner......there will be no media, anywhere in sight to kiss his ass, at anytime.
beside his mile pr/record, i thought his 3k was also pretty impressive because he ran the last 1000m in 2:30 - 2 seconds faster than the next guy. i think the 1000m mens final was won in 2:24. if fernandez has the strength and speed to finish the last k of 3k and 5k races, that would only add to his other threatening talents.
Since German has never run a 5k on the track, I imagine his debut will be at some low key meet where he can ease in and get some experience. I would not be surprised to see his coach have him run a controlled race and not turn on the gas until the last 1 to 2k.
Well, since you were too lazy to do your own work, I did it for you. And it's an interesting result indeed. You said low 7:40s right now for German; and what do Daniel's tables equate that to for a 5,000m? Certainly not "mid/high 13:teens." 7:42 (a time he has not run) equates to 13:25 on Daniels' tables. For those of you predicting 13:10, that equates to a 7:32 3,000m. You can talk all you want about how German is better at the longer distance, but think for a minute about that equation--13:10 equivalent to a 3,000m FIFTEEN seconds faster than German's run. Why don't we hope he runs 13:20 this summer, continues to develop his talent, and have a long and successful career as one of America's and hopefully the world's top distance runners? But we don't have to load on the high expectations when he's an 18-year old frosh!
fernnie wrote:
He ran his 3K while sick, and ran only for the win/to break 7:50. Plus they ran a huge negative. He can probably go low 7:40's right now. Compare that on Daniels' list. Probably in the mid/high 13:teens.
This is a guy who just ran faster than anyone else ever has in the mile indoors...while not really being a "miler"...
littlemeatchunks wrote:
so does this mean fernandez has the collegiate record? tony waldrop's is 3:55.0, hand timed.
is a 3:55.02 FAT superior? i would think so. i think they used to add .14 to hand timed races over 400m; does this apply?
Dork runners, get a life.
You are an idiot. 7:42 is not 15 seconds faster than his PR. It is 5 seconds faster than his PR. A PR run with a large negative split. His current 3k PR is 7:47. Have a nice day.
Why don't you try reading what I wrote before making a jackass of yourself.
idiot patrol wrote:
You are an idiot. 7:42 is not 15 seconds faster than his PR. It is 5 seconds faster than his PR. A PR run with a large negative split. His current 3k PR is 7:47. Have a nice day.
Wow, idiot patrol sure is an idiot. Read his post dumbass!
You did not read his post. He wrote that 13:10 would be equivalent to 7:32...and that is 15 seconds than his PR.
Like you, I happen to think he can run faster than 7:47, but I can't see him running 7:32 this year.
I really don't know what German can run for 5k, but I'm really looking forward to finding out. If I had to wager a guess: low 13:20's, maybe high teens. That's if he stays healthy and if he is not peaking too early.
I think that 13:10 is out of his reach this year. I would have said the same thing about 3:55, or a 4:00/8:34 double last year, however. The kid just keeps raising the bar.
And just to be clear, I got those equivalents from Jack Daniels' tables. I'm not sure how accurate they really are, although, as someone posted elsewhere, German's times are pretty much dead on for mile and 3000m.
I bow before you. I am an idiot.
Er... wrote:
Well, since you were too lazy to do your own work, I did it for you. And it's an interesting result indeed. You said low 7:40s right now for German; and what do Daniel's tables equate that to for a 5,000m? Certainly not "mid/high 13:teens." 7:42 (a time he has not run) equates to 13:25 on Daniels' tables. For those of you predicting 13:10, that equates to a 7:32 3,000m.
what? 7:32 is way better then 13:10
3k-->5k conversion=~1.725 (ratio of 3k wr to 5k wr)
7:32=12:59
7:42=13:17
7:47=13:25
I say he can go 13:10-13:15 outdoors...for a lot of high schoolers their 2 mile race pace becomes their 5k race pace...which would put German right around 13:17, and he seems to have improved more then most college freshman do.