ok, i'm ready to jump back into the market

Across the country there are thousands of people who think they have a system figured out to win the lottery. One of them will win the lottery. Do you really believe that proves his system works?

malmo wrote:

dollars and cents wrote:

Warren Buffett imo.

Regardless. Buffett is as good with one t tied behind his back as with both t's.

Ohhh, WARREN Buffett - I invested in the Jimmy Buffett portfolio and all I ended up with was a bunch of different flavored Margarita's, a few shots of vodka and a terrible hangover. Everyone tells me I had a wonderful time though while it lasted.

dukerdog wrote:

Across the country there are thousands of people who think they have a system figured out to win the lottery. One of them will win the lottery. Do you really believe that proves his system works?

The stock market is far from a lottery. If you think it is, that's fine, as long as you invest that way. But to others, bits of it can sometimes be understood and even predicted to limited degrees. And just knowing a little at rare times are enough. It is strange to think that people are satisfied with 10% annual returns when that can be accomplished on many single days.

Here's an example: a few months ago there was a ballot initiative where I live that would have significantly affected a mining corporation. Days before the voting, the general consensus was known and scientific polls were correctly predicting the result. Come the day after the votes were tallied, the companies stock climbed 20%. So there was a multiday period where this market could be predicted. There is an increased risk, no doubt, but the rewards outweighed the risks in this case and it was a sound decision.

And no, one person's experience doesn't prove anything but possibilities. What does prove that efforts to time markets can work are the FREQUENT success of it. But I won't stop you from investing at random. We all have to make our own decisions with the information, or lack there of, we have.

Tech stocks go wild wrote:

regulator wrote:

always remember YOU DON'T LOSE MONEY UNTIL YOU SELL!

I am stunned I lost all my money since I was so well diversified. I invested in at least 10 different investment companies.

That's not well diversified ass clown Your attempt at humor=fail

dukerdog wrote:

Across the country there are thousands of people who think they have a system figured out to win the lottery. One of them will win the lottery. Do you really believe that proves his system works?

let us run wrote:

The stock market is far from a lottery.

The fact that someone wins doesn't prove the system is not random. That was the only point of my post.

1) Well, I thought I was writing for at least an 8th grade educated audience. You know that when you have to spell out a joke it probably really wasn't that funny? Well, if I have to explain that when I said he shouldn't have left the market that that meant that it's just luck that he came out on top, then that's just too much to say to people who obviously are just wannabees with regard to investing. OF COURSE if you got out when the market was up that was a good move in hindsight, but once again, it was pure luck. Lots of financial people were saying the market would maybe drop a little but then take off in the fall of 2008. I don't buy that he made an informed decision -- there's always HUGE disagreement about what the market will do and why. Gotta get out right at the right time and back in right at the right time or you didn't gain as much as you think you did.

2) And brother, shares do matter. The more you have when the market is low, the more money you will have when the market goes up again. You don't lose a penny until you sell.

3) You are very mistaken about informed people knowing when a bottom is and when a top is -- they like to think they do, but they don't. Often people will see a trend down or a trend up and then react, and by then it is too late to get the big results. Who the hell are all the people selling now? They are afraid and are getting out with losses just so they can have some money left. It's a foolhardy thing to do. When the DOW was at 14,000, why watch it drop all the way to the low 8,000s and then sell? People who sell when the market is going down not only didn't sell at the very top, but they get out altogether and aren't taking advantage of bargain prices when the market is low. Too many things to time -- gotta time the bottom and the top and then when your money is out you have to put it and any other money you would have invested into something that will earn money when the market is going down. Often people do this with oil or gold. Well, those are volatile too, so then you've got to time that bottom and top. Just not feasible as an ongoing strategy. Warren Buffett will tell you that. Look for bargains based on some factors (P/E ratios for example) but then buy and hold.