I'm not worried about defaults, earnings declines, or forclosures. I'm worried about what the U.S. government is going to do to try to mitigate the damage. It's just too easy, especially in an election year, to opt for "solutions" that create more dollar weakness and more deficit spending. Later on (assuming that Hillary Clinton is elected), you can throw higher taxes into the mix.
Avocados Number wrote:
George, are you actually trying to pin down these futures geniuses?
Some of the stuff I read here sounds a lot like Hillary Clinton and her phony cattle trades. Sagarin isn't in that category,of course, but long options players rarely make money and only if their execution fees are low enough to flip their gamma (or be absolutely right on direction; if direction is the bet then buy the UL), especially in a long position with only 40 days to go.
malmo wrote: Why pay a premium for the (overpriced) options when you could have been long the futures?
I meant, short, of course.
What you find hard to believe matters very little in my life. In case you haven't been reading these threads lately, I haven't liked the market for some time, and I've been sitting in cash since around Jan. 2. Fortuitous? Maybe. We had a pretty subdued session on Friday, and the VIX has starting tailing upward after some consolidation. I took a shot, because the only thing I care to own is volatility right now. Markets often dump the Monday after expiration, and, in any event, volatility picks up. I don't trade futures. Tell you what George, I'll sell them to you tomorrow morning, or better yet, next week when you yourself capitulate.
malmo wrote:
Some of the stuff I read here sounds a lot like Hillary Clinton and her phony cattle trades.
Except, of course, that Hillary made real money on her phony cattle trades.
malmo wrote:
Some of the stuff I read here sounds a lot like Hillary Clinton and her phony cattle trades. Sagarin isn't in that category,of course, but long options players rarely make money and only if their execution fees are low enough to flip their gamma (or be absolutely right on direction; if direction is the bet then buy the UL), especially in a long position with only 40 days to go.
Absolutely nothing incorrect about this, and I generally sell volatility, not purchase it. You simply tried to call some people out on this board, and I took your bait. That's it. I consult with my former firm where I was employed as a senior market analyst for years and I trade. Doesn't make me a soothsayer, but I make money, and that's good enough.
Sagarin wrote:
We had a pretty subdued session on Friday, and the VIX has starting tailing upward after some consolidation.
What does it mean, in real economic or even psychological terms, for the VIX to "consolidate"? Is this based on some idea that people have to get comfortable with a certain level of discomfort, fear, and uncertainty before they can move to even higher levels of discomfort, fear, and uncertainty? Or is this just chartist ("techician") talk?
Avocados Number wrote:
Except, of course, that Hillary made real money on her phony cattle trades.
And then didn't report the income on her tax returns until 1991/1992. Don't you just wish you could get away with that?
Avocados Number wrote:
Sagarin wrote:We had a pretty subdued session on Friday, and the VIX has starting tailing upward after some consolidation.
What does it mean, in real economic or even psychological terms, for the VIX to "consolidate"? Is this based on some idea that people have to get comfortable with a certain level of discomfort, fear, and uncertainty before they can move to even higher levels of discomfort, fear, and uncertainty? Or is this just chartist ("techician") talk?
It's both actually. And you can pretty much poo-poo the technicians as I used to if you truly believe the market is efficient, but, more pften that not, I find that I ignore them at my own peril. I, for one, hardly ever trade the VIX, and to try to interpret that chart other than as an anecdotal indicator that may suggest establishing a direction one way or the other in the market is perhaps foolish. But I don't want to be long anything right now, nor do I want to be caught in a short-covering rally. Volatility is my only option, and it sure seemed ripe to me. And I believe it will only get more erratic in the weeks ahead. But Malmo asked us to lay our cards on the table and I did. I could be wrong, but I doubt it. Besides, you don't make money until you sell.
malmo wrote:
And then didn't report the income on her tax returns until 1991/1992. Don't you just wish you could get away with that?
She sucks. Can't believe she's even a contender, but then again, every undereducated, uninformed idiot with a beating heart gets a vote.
Nine hours until the tsunami hits New York.
so the Fed cuts interest rates, all the major indexes rocket back up and those ITK make gazillions of $. Same old story, told you so yesterday.If you'd have bought Dow futures at their lowest point yesterday, you'll be in the money by now.
they cut the interest rate that the banks charge EACH OTHER. not the rate for you and me.
this will allow more credit to flow between banks, and more loans/spending(they hope). it will not help the underlying problems.
I don't have an interest rate, I owe absolutely nothing
The way I see it, this is a chance to buy while it's on sale.
It does suck for those close to retirement that need to have the cash now. But then again, you are supposed to reduce the risk as you get closer to retirement.
lick my dog wrote:
If valuations move further downward, I won't complain. I am in the accumulation phase now and the cheaper I can buy into the market the happier I am. I don't plan to use most of the money I put into the market in next 20 years.
This is the right attitude. If we do go into a recession (3rd quarter GDP was UP 4.9%, and most economists say the 4th quarter will be up too, so no recession yet), it's not a great thing of course, but it's not the end of the world either. I can see how some of you young guys might be concerned. I can see why someone who has a ton of loans against their house might be concerned. I can see how someone who has a non-skilled job with no equivalent job out there for them if they lose theirs might be concerned.
If you were responsible (along with a little time to do so) while times were good, then you've GOT 6 months of expenses saved, you ARE debt free, you WERE putting 15-20% or more away for retirement which means you could live on a smaller salary if you had to get another job that paid less.
Economist Ben Stein said it well (paraphrased) -- "I'm worried that my wife smokes, that I don't eat as well as I should, that my children will do well in school. I don't worry about a recession."
The market doesn't care that there was a lot of growth in the 3rd quarter of 2007. It is looking at the future. It is looking at and trying to predict what the 2nd quarter of 2008 is going to look like.
If you invest now, you are guessing that the 3rd quarter of 2008 is going to show growth. The large rate cut by the fed should stimulate the economy in around 6-8 months. People are scared right now and that plays a factor too.
"they cut the interest rate that the banks charge EACH OTHER. not the rate for you and me.
this will allow more credit to flow between banks, and more loans/spending(they hope). it will not help the underlying problems."
The federal funds rate serves as a basis for all other interest rates. The relative structure of interest rates is that rates on different types of debt move together as they are substitutes. Therefore, a cut in the federal funds rate means that the prime rate will also go down .75%.
da truff wrote:
The market doesn't care that there was a lot of growth in the 3rd quarter of 2007. It is looking at the future. It is looking at and trying to predict what the 2nd quarter of 2008 is going to look like.
If you invest now, you are guessing that the 3rd quarter of 2008 is going to show growth. The large rate cut by the fed should stimulate the economy in around 6-8 months. People are scared right now and that plays a factor too.
I never said the market cares if there was growth in the 3rd quarter of 2007. I mention that just to show that we are NOT CURRENTLY in a recession. We COULD actually be in the first month of a recession, but it takes 2 consecutive quarters to determine that, so we won't know until the report following the second quarter of 2008 is in. If we enter a recession we could in fact be coming out of it by the time it is defined (as we were in 1991).
I think the Fed cuts coupled with rebates from the US government will help to stimulate the economy. The markets will likely drop a little more and then remain stagnant until September. I think in September it starts to take off again.
Anyone who got out into a position of cash during that time will have lost a great time to accumulate shares. If my wife were working now, I'd put $30,000 or more into a mutual fund today. As it is, I put a smaller chunk in last week. I expect big things from that purchase within 2 years, and ultimately bigger things in the next 18 years before I retire from it. Low markets are awesome opportunities. This morning the DOW hit 11,700 which was the height of the DOW before the DOT COM crash. Due to dividends, some company 401k matching in there for a while, and continued investment, my portfolio is TONS higher than it was at the height of the DOT COM bubble. Don't be afraid to invest brothers and sisters. There has never been a better time to start in the last 5 years than today if you've not started.
I am dollar cost averaging into the market. I am not in a panic. At the same time, I think people are scared so I am not convinced it a super duper time to lump sum in with all my cash reserves.
Okay, you are trying to be academic and state that it takes two quarters of real gdp decline for a period to be called a recession. We may or may not be in a recession right now. We could be in the fourth month of a recession since we don't know the numbers for the 4th quarter of 2008 yet.
The market is not looking at what happened in the 4th quarter of 2008 anymore. It is looking at the future.