Globalization and Running: how much would shoes be if they weren't made by a 9 year old in Thailand?

I love peeps wrote:

When you get conscripted OTG, maybe you can give these little ones flowers. I'm sure they won't shoot you first...oh yeah life suddenly isn't so simple is it? Idiot.

I'm 40. No chance of being conscripted.

If China used oil at the rate of the US, all supplied would be gone in 5 years.

I am well aware of current rates of consumption.

There was a demographic study in NYC done in 1910. They said at current growth rates, the city would be 4-5 feet deep in horse sh!t by 1930.

Energy demand is inelastic - it makes other sources more appealing. Why do you think Saudi wants the price to go *down*?

Resource grabs have been going on for thousands of years. Why should now be any different?

6bn cannot live like the 350mm in North America becuase they do not have the productive capacity. It takes decades to create that.

There are numerous things people in devloping countries can do to "get more from less":

Rain catchment

Grey water recycling

composting toilets

small scale wind/solar

rammed earth construction

entomophagy (eating of insects - we'll all be doing this soon)

the developed world will adopt many of these practices as well.

You are obviously very young. I suggest you reserve judgement until you have read more and *seen* more of the world.

I love peeps wrote:

6 Billion people can not live like 200 Million do in this country. There aren't enough resources in the world to allow that for very long.

Global economics is not a zero sum game. You're talking about mercantilism.

OTG, the energy for the systems you described is going to come from where? When you put systems like that in place you need an abundant energy reservoir. Last time I checked, cheap oil and cheap coal are pretty much exhausted. There are sources of energy left, but they are expensive. Very expensive. Tarsands, heavy oil, oil shale, coal to oil, LNG liquification, are all very expensive.

You can't make a graceful transition with 60 dollar a barrel oil. You can't. Oil is not getting cheaper, it will never see 35 again. Ever. Now, when foreign economies start crashing from:

A) Fewer food exports because we're using our corn for ethanol

B) Americans are paying higher prices and have less to spend on foreign made goods

C) Export economies that rely on the U.S for trade enter recessions, and have no means of coping

D) The programs you describe can't be implemented en masse due to scalability

E) The full scope of the problem becomes much worse as we fight over the scraps of cheap energy

What many people seem to forget is that new energy systems require infrastructure. Infrastructure can only be built on existing energy systems. The existing energy systems will suffer heavy burdens, that will grow worse if economic collapse from a credit bubble/derivatives implosion occurs as it seems it may. What I'm saying is the money and the energy won't be there for sustainable new systems. When that happens there will be no future for many people. Savvy?

I don't think I've made myself clear to a lot of folks...

Globalization, Export economies, people not starving right now, require one thing...

Cheap energy. Without cheap energy there is no world economy. People who relied on labor jobs suddenly have none. The problems only grow in scope when you think about it. Its not a pretty picture. Its a horrible, sad, depressing picture. And who's to say it won't happen?

Its as simple as this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_law_of_thermodynamics

The sustainable energy systems of Ethanol, Biodiesel, Solar, hydroelectric, biomass they all require ENORMOUS energy inputs to create them.

Imagine how costly it will be to change all the cars to diesel engines and ethanol engines. To fabricate all of those PV cells and generators for Hydroelectric dams, not to mention the power grid updates and refinery upgrades to the new fuel. you'll need new pipelines, new storage systems, concrete, steel, copper...

All of those things are expensive. If you look at the cost in terms of energy, the potential for the energy not to be there to create those systems is ENORMOUS. Now, what makes the situation even worse? What you wonder?

Cheap Oil ended in 2004. Its gone. Do you know how much energy it will require just to pump the same amount? Much more than it has been. The Oil industry is going to need massive inputs of investment just to get the same output it has in the past. The ultimate EROEI (energy return on energy invested) Will shrink dramatically either way. Well, demand is set to grow BY LEAPS AND F****N BOUNDS IN CHINA, INDIA, SOUTHAMERICA, and yes North American and Europe. Now, when we try switching over to renewable systems its going to raise demand even more. Do you have any idea the scope of the problem yet? We could go to war to steal all the worlds oil and send it straight to the U.S. It wouldn't change anything. In fact it would bring about chaos even faster.

If you really understood the scope of the problem, you'd be preparing. You'd realize that hope, is a silly thing.

And in a few years, when you're hungry, and walking miles to get a meal, you'll realize how capitalism killed itself.

Our energy needs grew too large, for geology to support us. When we finally made the change, the leap was too great. Capitalism killed itself.

Sad too, because Capitalism is a great thing. WHEN THE ENERGY IS THERE. I'm going to bed, good night.

cheers.

ok peeps, so the answer to the world's problems,

is that there is no answer to the world's problems.

So we should just lay down and die?

I believe what you say in a theoretical sense. But in practice there are so many things we can do so people don't have to die.

Most americans could bike, turn off their electronics, grow their own food. The same could be done in those countries. We could restrict SUV and Airplane travel. If people wanted to travel long distances they could do it by train. We could raise taxes to pay for these new systems. People who consume more, are taxed more. And we can grow a lot more food to help other countries make the transition as well. There are lots of answers. People dying doesn't have to be one of them.

Kentucky, try that Sh*t in Texas.

You'd see how far it gets-

nowhere.

I love peeps wrote:

Last time I checked, cheap oil and cheap coal are pretty much exhausted.

wrong - the US has 26% of known coal deposits. It is the Saudi of coal but on a much larger scale. This is an enormous resource.

A) Food - the world produces more than enough to feed everybody. Saudi exports wheat. Ethanol is not crowding out a hungry peasant.

b) The rest of the world (you know...that place outside the US) pays ~US$1-1.50/liter for petrol and has for A LONG TIME. The *shock* is coming to US consumers, where demand is much less elastic. This has been the case for 2-3 years now w/ no slowing in consumption.

c)Export economies - they are not nearly as reliant on the US consumer as 10 years ago. If anything, should China/Japan decide to sell their Treasuries positions, the mother of all recession would ensue in North America. And there would be more capital for investment in Asia.

d) Mumbai already has rain catchement programs in place. Composting toilets are common all over the world. People said microcredit was not scaelable.

Why will the money not be there for investment? Upon what do you base this?

As far as a credit bubble, when you have sat on a trading floor for +10 years and seen the amount of capital committed to financial transactions, and the controls in place, get back to us.

Until you , get some rest Junior. You have a lot to learn.

Oh jeez...

thanks for giving a list of the worlds top exporting economies.

Jeez, to whom do they export? jee willigers.

The world may produce more than enough food to feed everybody, but...

what happens when it costs enourmous sums to transport to market, and *gasps* when no one can buy it because their jobs are gone because it suddenly became cheaper to produce it in mexico due to transport costs.

You simplisticly look at food production and energy reserves as if its a cureall. I'm telling you the systems that transport those goods and extract energy are whats important. I'm telling you we can't change those systems fast enough to keep up with current demand in light of the geological reality; all the cheap oil and coal are gone.

-Gone.

I love peeps wrote:

Oh jeez...

thanks for giving a list of the worlds top exporting economies.

Jeez, to whom do they export? jee willigers.

.

Do your homework, Junior

China's Total trade: US 15%, Asia 41%

China Export Destinations: US 21% Asia 36%

China Import Suplliers: US 7% Asia 33%

Intra-Asian trade is much more important to export driven nations now than the US.

Again, pay attention to what is happening, rather than seeing what you want to believe, Junior.

Coal fired power plants have enough fuel to keeping running for another 50-75 years in both North America and China. I'd say thats more than enough time to come up w/ an alternative.

I never said that jobs in poor areas is a bad thing - but I do think that these workers should be treated right. I'm not saying they should get $7/hr or even $4/hr. But, they should make a wage that will sustain them and their families - and there should be some restrictions on hours/occupational safety/breaks/physical abuse especially for children.

And no, I don't think that countries have the interests of workers at heart. In India, for example, there is a caste system which means that higher castes have no problem treating lower castes like dogs. If you want elitism - try investigating the caste system - not americans who would like to see foreign workers treated well.

Dave chapelle has his own shoe sweat shop!

Hilarious. Check it out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWCAGcoGOoU

neb wrote:

And no, I don't think that countries have the interests of workers at heart. In India, for example, there is a caste system which means that higher castes have no problem treating lower castes like dogs. If you want elitism - try investigating the caste system - not americans who would like to see foreign workers treated well.

So you think you know what is best for India...and you will right the injustices of their society.

...thats what I thought.

You people can use all of the unbased political theories you want, but when it comes to economics, there are set equations that policy is based on. Both our own and other world political leaders create policy to minimize the negative impact of these factors.

I suggest you read some of my posts that have to do with actual mathematics before throwing liberal views around like dice.

-Joe Walsh