Ritz 61:23 at Great North

And bomb he will if he expects to win New York against Ramala whoquite simply just toyed with him today and Tergat, the world record holder.

Can someone just put their arm around Ritz and whisper in his ear: "Shut up, kid. Just compete." His outlandish remarks to the media make him look like a fool. His coach, no doubt, fuels this childish fire. If he thinks he can win New York, good. Think on. It aint gonna happen...

drug free wrote: He ran about 2 1/2 minutes behind Geb's WR, and Geb runs 2:06 marathons. Double the gap, and that would be 2:11 for Ritz. 2:11 would be a great debut for Ritz on a tough course like NY, but that's a far cry from the 2:09 some of you are saying, and likely a far cry from winning.

Uhhh. Today's race was not a PR kind of day. A better metric would be to compare Ritzenhein to how well he competed against Ramaala, probably the most prolific half-marathoner ever, having an average yearly best for ten years of 60:27. Ramaala's lifetime average for the 24 times he's run the distance (excluding the 3 high altitude races in SA) is 61:05!

Spiney Norman ran 2:14:08 on a warm day in 1985 stopping to walk four times at 16, 18, 20 and 21 miles. I cannot see Ritzenhein running anywhere that slow under any conditions. If Ritenhein can have the discipline to pull back on the reins for the first half at about 1:04:30 he'll be fine for whatever the day brings. If it's his day, he won't be too slow that he can't make up time over the second half. If it's not going to be his day, he won't fast enough to invite the really big gorillas for a ride on his back.

to you and Great North, read the iaaf report on the race. Ritz says he made sure to run an even pace for most of the race even when guys surged on him and then when things got later he applied pressure and kept his composure. if that isn\'t maturity I don\'t know what is.

I agree completely, he is a lot smarter and more mature then everyone seems to think he is, and much, much more mature than most of the people on this board

Jesus H F***ing Christ!!!!!! that way some of you guys are talking on here you'd think he trailed in last in 3hours!!!!!

My prediction

Letherby passes a fading Ritz in the closing stages of New York.

I see your point malmo. But it is a fast course, right? And I don't see what Ramaala's average 1/2 marathon time has to do with Ritz running new york exactly.

Look, Ritz might run great, and I hope he has a strong day. I just have seen a pattern in the past where he does a strong road or cross race before his REAL target race (in this case, NY marathon), gets extremely confident, and then either breaks down or gets sick before the big day, goes out too hard, and has a real bad day.

Just because some guy walked a few times and ran 2:14 doesn't mean Ritz can't have a real bad day, blow up and run 2:14. Granted, the conditions were tough, but did you expect Paul Tergat to blow up in the Olympics, get 10th and run nearly 2:15?? If it happened to him, it of course can happen to Ritz (and I know you will say, the Olympics are different. But that's just one example I pulled out. I could pull several more where top marathoners capable of much better had bad days and ended up running 2:13/14/15 in non-championship events).

malmo wrote:If Ritenhein can have the discipline to pull back on the reins for the first half at about 1:04:30 he'll be fine for whatever the day brings. If it's his day, he won't be too slow that he can't make up time over the second half. If it's not going to be his day, he won't fast enough to invite the really big gorillas for a ride on his back.

You beat me to the post, malmo. Almost exactly what I was going to say.

Call me crazy, but here's a prediction: Assuming non-adverse conditions (heat, wind, etc), I predict Ritz will debut faster than Salazar did in his NY debut (2:09:41).

I think Malmo's point was that Ramaala is probably the greatest half-marathoner ever, and Ritz fought him all the way; and despite a less than optimum pace, Ritz became (let's add five seconds to make up for the 35 meter drop in elevation) the fourth fastest American ever. Now, no one knows what Ritz will run in NYC. But if we ask what's reasonable given this performance and his other times, it's mad first, as many on this thread have done, to point to NYC and say he'll not do well there, and it's mad to think that 2:14 or so is likely. That would be, if my quick estimate is right, about 25 seconds per mile slower than his half-marathon time. I don't understand how anyone thinks the evidence we have supports that. Regardless, Ritz ran great and has earned our plaudits.

If he is 4th on the american all time list, who are the 3 that are better than him? How many not named Khalid have run under 2:11?

He CAN race mature. He HAS that within him. He IS a great runner. He DOES, however, run his mouth off a bit too much to the press. I just remember when he said he would medal at World Cross, then later complained of a blister problem because of the kind of shoe he wore. (I'm sure Nike was please with that raving endorsement). And he could be a great marathoner, eventually. But he is making big jumps real quick with no real direction. He's more than doubled his racing distance with the half, and now he's doubling it again at a fairly difficult debut marathon a few weeks later, predicting, of course, that he can win. I don't know about you, but I'm a Ritz fan, I just wish he would quiet down a bit and just do the racing first...

danzig/mother - as a professional, you have to keep your composure on the playing field AND off it...that's part of it. Good Luck to Ritz at New York, I'll be rooting for him!

Great North wrote:

He CAN race mature. He HAS that within him. He IS a great runner. He DOES, however, run his mouth off a bit too much to the press.

I don't believe that's true. He's being interviewed, and he answers the question truthfully. Ritzenhein feels he can win New York. That's exactly what he should be thinking.

Quit over-analyzing everthing, you'd enjoy the sport much more.

Great North wrote:

I just remember when he said he would medal at World Cross

This is what he said:

"I've taken a good turn in my training and I'm going to be better than ever. I'm going into the Worlds thinking that I can medal."

He never said he WOULD medal, just that he thinks he can. I have a strange feeling that he thought he could win today. Silly Ritz for thinking such a ridiculous thought, because he wasn't even close.

My point wasn't that Ramaala was the greatest half-marathoner ever, that belongs to either Gebrselassie or Tergat. I said he was the most prolific ever. My point was that since the day wasn't conducive to PRs, Ramaala is the bellwether to be measured against. Ritzenhein passed that test. Before the race I though he's run 60:40. Had the wind been the other direction he'd probably run close to 60:00. I figure now that Ritzenhein on PR type day (cool , low humidity, no wind) would be good for 60:00-60:20 right now.

See above. A fast course isn't fast anymore if you're dealing with a headwind.

Spiney Norman isn't on the same solar system as Ritzenhein. I have no doubts that he can blow up, the marathon is cruel that way. I just don't think that he will blow up.

1. Today Ritz ran the Great North Run, not the NYC marathon. So his performance today was good. He got 3rd in a strong international field of runners who were trying to beat each other in today's race, not in some race in November.

2. How can some of you posters come to negative conclusions about Ritz's marathon possibilities based on today's race? Sure, a lot can go wrong in a marathon, but BASED ON TODAY'S RACE, how can you be negative. He has a great race and somehow some people make that into a reason to criticize him. I've got a feeling that if he'd have won today, there'd still be some naysayers saying it was meaningless, and that all the wily veterans let him have it to trick him into a state of overconfidence.

More on the race from the Great North website:

Men

H Ramaala (South Africa) 61:03, 2, D Berhanu (Ethiopia) 61:22, 3, D Ritzenhein (USA) 61:25, 4, J Gharib (Morocco) 62:41, 5, S Baldini (Italy) 62:42, 6, R Rop (Kenya) 63:16, 7, A Chaica (Portugal) 63:24, 8, A Letherby (Australia) 63:50, 9, P Riley (GB) 64:09, 10, J Brown (GB) 64:15, 11, D Robinson (GB) 64:45, 12, T Shiferew (Ethiopia) 64:51, 13, A Jones (GB) 64:58, 14, M Smith (GB) 65:20, 15, S Schutgens (Netherlands) 65:25, 16, K Lonergan (GB) 65:27, 17, A Stikovsky (Ukraine) 65:50, 18, P McGlory (GB) 65:53, 19, W Talel (Kenya) 65:59, 20, T Abyu (GB) 66:22.

Ramaala who picked up his first title in 1997 and won again three years ago, scored a runaway success on the Newcastle-to-South Shields course, "I tried to run under 61minutes but I couldn't - I didn't sleep well thinking, it was going to rain," said the 34-year-old South African winner in 1hr 1min 4sec.

Dejene Berhanu race winner two years ago and second last September when beating Ramaala, repeated his runners-up placing.

The Ethiopian clocked 1:01:23 just hold off the challenge of Dathan Ritzenhein, the USA athlete placing a surprising third in 1:01:26.

Ramaala although scoring a convincing win, was adamant he was wary of the elite field even after breaking well clear in the last two miles.

He said: "I tried to break the guys around 10km, but they were all very strong and I had to be careful not to burn myself out.

"So I waited until the last 10 minutes and even then I wasn't certain I would win. You never know until you get to the finish.

"Personally I love this course although today we didn't do a fast time, there were a lot of headwinds in front us.

"The masses in the race don't like it but the warm weather for me - that is fine," he said of the excellent conditions.

Ramaala added: "I really can't say too much, I won it for the third time, it was slower but much easier compared to the last win in 2003 when I had to go all out.

"Today I was a minute slower, but it was a tactical race compared to say last year, when the guy flew from the start to the finish."

On that occasion Zersenay Tadesse of Eritrea achieved an incredible UK All-Comers' record of 59min 05sec.

Ramaala insisted: "This time it was much more of a race. I was kind of saving myself for the finish because I wasn't sure of Dejene's finishing speed.

"I felt good although in the first half, I was feeling a little bit tired after long flight and all that chaos in Heathrow," said the Friday morning arrival from South Africa.

Ritzenhein was delighted with his debut and acknowledged he had deliberately kept away from the surges which Ramaala continually inserted.

The 23-year-old American said: I was very pleased and I felt from practice that I could run close to 62 minutes.

"I deliberately didn't look at the clock but it was difficult trying not too.

"There was a lot of surging and the pace was all over the place - I tried to be a little smart and run more evenly to try and conserve energy."

Ritzenhein admitted he hadn't ruled out winning the race: "I didn't want to say I could, as I didn't want to appear overconfident. But this is a good start for me."

Coach Hudson commented, “Dathan ran a great race this morning finishing third to two very good athletes. The good thing is that he barely tapered for this race coming off of two very hard weeks at sea-level in Eugene, the two highest weeks of his life. This bodes well for the marathon and he ran a great race without being very sharp. He will go into New York with a very good chance of competing well.” from bouldertraining.com

The lad's a born marathoner. I can't wait to see how he does in New York.

Any TV for the race this year?

Does this mean Runner's World lied to me and I'm not the "World's Fittest First-Timer"?