Very solid he is proving me wrong with these fast splits. I think Mantecon can match the 800, the Culpepper kid just ran open 800 in 1:50 after running 4:05 the day before. Mantecon closed his 4:00 mile race at Nike Indoor Nationals in a 56.x while looking around. What is Spencer gonna do close it in 55? The Mile is a more random race, once people are this close in ability anybody can win.
Owen Powell ran 1:46 last year and still avoided facing Nauman in the mile at Hoka and Nike Nationals because he knew it was a gamble. He got to preserve his undefeated streak in the mile/2 mile.
Spencer is the favorite at Arcadia but Mantecon is gonna be on his shoulder all the way to the line. He’s going to avoid racing the mile like Simmons did his senior year and focus on breaking 13:40 in a pro race. He’s no threat in the mile to a Winders type who can run 1:46 in the open 800 or a 2025 Nauman I’m sorry. But 2 mile/5k Spencer can be undefeated this season.
I don’t think 2026 Nauman is gonna be able to beat his PR’s from last year, we’ll see though. Just haven’t seen any indicators he’s on that level from last year yet.
If Mantecon tries to keep up with Spencer, he’ll be on the rail, one stride back, and not on his shoulder. Spencer might not even know he’s there. Spencer outkicked Mantecon at Brooks XC, so it’s not a given that Mantecon can win with a kick at a Arcadia.
curious why 4:01 miler and sophomore NXN qualifier ABDIHATIR NASSAN from SOMALIA is not in this race when his teammate AYUUB HASSAN from the SAME HIGH SCHOOL is in the race
- rich old racer
Looks like he has to sit out this this outdoor based on a Colorado transfer rule that also made him sit out during xc States. But I guess the rule doesn't affect him during the postseason because he is representing the "club" and not the school. I remember there was that CA rule that basically blocked the Young twins from competing at Arcadia in '23. And this same CA rule actually just blocked a couple kids from competing for their school this year because they competed in a college race. Idk why Rich Gonzales doesn't let them run unattached, but I guess the CA rule overrides everything.
From the southern hemisphere, I’d predict around 8:28-29, and here’s why.
A useful comparison is between Spencer and one of our Australian junior standouts, Kieran Shepherd. They raced each other at World Cross Country over 8km, where Spencer finished roughly a minute ahead.
Fast forward to February 28, and the 16-year-old Shepherd runs 8:00.24 for 3000m, which converts to approximately 8:34–8:35 for 3200m. Given that Spencer is older, more developed, and likely stronger aerobically, it’s reasonable to project him dipping under 8:30 based on that benchmark.
I do agree the field is quite crowded, but it’s worth noting that Shepherd ran his time in a 25-athlete field at our National Open Championships so a big race doesn’t necessarily prevent a fast performance.
Haha maybe Kieran will make his way to Arcadia next year as a senior in high school here in Australia. Good luck to Spencer and it will be interesting to see how the race pans out.
Have no idea why they had him run the 4x8 last night with the 3200 tonight. But looks like Mantecon split 1:49.x. More wheels than I thought he had. That said, Spencer still the favorite until someone beats him.
Did anybody else notice that the fastest Newbury Park guy this year ran 4:27 for 1600m. Seems slow.
Apparently their would-be #1 guy (Dickran) competed in a race against college runners so he’s not allowed to run for his high school team this year. He ran a 4:11 1600 last year
Did anybody else notice that the fastest Newbury Park guy this year ran 4:27 for 1600m. Seems slow.
The decline of Newbury Park is not the only problem in California. Other perennial powerhouses from the past (Great Oak, Dana Hills, Arcadia) vanished and they couldn’t even make state. In the last 2 years, no boys team got top 10 at nationals.