I stand by that Hocker was bare minimum in 3:26.5 shape in Paris which converts slightly under the mile world record, I fully believe that Kerr was right around that shape in that time (and Jakob and Nuguse)
With all due respect TL, I think you're misremembering this race then.
Kerr was 2.47.6 at 1200m 3.00.8 at 1300m, 3.14.3 at 1400m and 3.27.8(.79) at 1500m. And you can go back and check the race very simply to see these splits, including the 1400m point which is very clearly visible on the track.
That means he went 13.2, 13.5, 13.5 for his last three 100m segments. There is a very big difference between 13.0/13low and 13.5. Half a second translates to almost 3.7m or 12 feet. That's not a kick-in race.
I'm not understating the Habz race, it's obviously very well executed. And I know what you're saying - irrespective of how Habz found the shape to run 3.27, look at the race execution. 100% fair, can't debate that. The problem is, we can't accurately assess how that "flawless execution" helped him and you gave the reason why - he was (and is) a B-tier runner and B-tier runners don't just run the 5th fastest time in history (only fractions behind a guy in Morceli that certainly wasn't B-tier) just because of a clean and well run race. They just don't.
Mea culpa, 13.4, 13.2 close I found the splits. Still he ran that 13.4 wide, a couple meters added at least. Not a heavy kick but at the level of precision these things matter, which also included numerous passes and some early extra running.
I see your point on Habz, but I somewhat see these 1500 times as on a lag. I’d be very surprised if 2024 for the 800 isn’t soon replicated with 3:26-27s becoming the norm and that mark getting buried. Habz having that weird WL is an anomaly to me around a strangely tactical DL season, GST disrupting things, and a lack of an alpha on the circuit to push the pace. I look at it as Jakob ran 3:26.7 and then got beat. Yeah he messed things up but these lofty times will not be as lofty if they are prioritized by fit athletes.
Josh could but I think it's unlikely, considering he needs to take nearly two and half seconds off his best at age 28. Speaking of his best (3:45.34), its slower than Jakob's indoor world record of 3:45.14 (BTW, a distance he has only run once indoor). When Jakob and Yared ran 3:43, they were 22 and 24. I'm taking a younger Jakob and Yared over an almost 29 Josh every time. And the pacing -- who is going to give the quality pacing he needs to 1200m/1300m or farther? This project looks like Josh jumping up on a tightrope and saying "Look at me! Look at me!" He might pull it off and stay on, but I think he will fall off (and it will be embarrassing after all this talk). Now if Cole said all this . . . I would take it more seriously.
Anyone capable of running that pace through 1200 or 1300m, will be competing in the race. Kerr will be the one chasing the WR, so he’ll be on the pacer and then into the lead when the pacer steps off the track.
Athletes announce goals that don’t achieve all the time and if Kerr fails in his quest, he won’t be embarrassed by it. In sports, the only thing that matters are the results and not anything said before a race.
You’ll have to explain how you got 1.3s because 1514.4 m in 3:28.71 equals 3:26.73 (funnily enough exactly what Jakob ran) for 1500m if you do the math. 1501 is 3:26.86, 1502 is 3:27.00.
OK let’s say in the 3:27-flat range. “you also have to exert less force due to simple centripetal motion physics.”
-I am no physics expert but are you saying the tracks geometry is worth 14 meters at 55/s lap pace? That seems absurd. If your argument is around drafting I think we all agree that can be worth some meters. There might be little trade-off here, however.
It certainly could be suggested considering he had no one to break the wind for him which from my observations (not scientific) is worth a second per mile. You subtract 2.3 from that and get 3:26.4 which I think is realistic given how much he dominated the field by.
It certainly could be suggested considering he had no one to break the wind for him which from my observations (not scientific) is worth a second per mile. You subtract 2.3 from that and get 3:26.4 which I think is realistic given how much he dominated the field by.
Not talking about Jakob! I think it is understood that Jakob was better than Yared and El Guerrouj better than Ngeny more than their respective margins as both took the wind for 600 and 400 meters respectively. Jakob also has meat on the bone from Monaco with 400m unpaced (and his fastest splits). That’s why a maximal record would either be a best with illegal pacing or perhaps have a late pass from the trailing athlete. It doesn’t seem like Kerr will have more than 1209m pacing unless he’s scooped up a ridiculous pacer. Arop is my best case.
This post was edited 52 seconds after it was posted.
I was kind of disappointed that they wont have Jakob/the top guys in the race. He said that he wants a real race. But when asked about Jakob, he made it very clear that there wont be any money to pay him and that the ones calling the shots would be protective of him/uk athletes.
Kerr can either go for the record or win a race against top competition. Going for a record means taking a risk -- one he can't take when there's competition that can beat him. Can't have it both ways.
“Unique” is certainly one way to describe that Habz race lol. There’s only one explanation for a run of the mill, one time 3:29 guy (towed gun to tape in his PB) suddenly acquiring the ability to run 3:27 shortly before his 32nd birthday, and it has nothing to do with positioning or getting the perfect setup. Kerr better make sure his tea money is in order if he’s planning to do what Habz did.
I think the performance at the age was extraordinary and if you think doped sure that’s fine. But I looked at him running 1501 meters and contrasted that with the race analysis for multiple DL races. He saved 6-10 meters which can equal around a second-plus. So I disagree and think that does make a difference, as it did for Mills who got a position he rarely ever gets and capitalized.
“A second-plus” lol. He went from 3:29.72 kicking off a relatively slow 1200 in Rome to 3:27.49 front running the final 500 in Paris. At least a couple dozen guys throughout history could have done the former. Maybe 5 have ever done (or had the ability to do) the latter. Kind of shocking for a B tier athlete…
Kerr needs to run his PB and then hold the pace for another 109m. That isn’t happening without serious chemical intervention. If he left as much meat on the bone in Paris as you’re describing, we’d have seen evidence of it by now. Nothing about his profile suggests he’s ever been a 3:26 guy.
It certainly could be suggested considering he had no one to break the wind for him which from my observations (not scientific) is worth a second per mile. You subtract 2.3 from that and get 3:26.4 which I think is realistic given how much he dominated the field by.
Not talking about Jakob! I think it is understood that Jakob was better than Yared and El Guerrouj better than Ngeny more than their respective margins as both took the wind for 600 and 400 meters respectively. Jakob also has meat on the bone from Monaco with 400m unpaced (and his fastest splits). That’s why a maximal record would either be a best with illegal pacing or perhaps have a late pass from the trailing athlete. It doesn’t seem like Kerr will have more than 1209m pacing unless he’s scooped up a ridiculous pacer. Arop is my best case.
Why would a Canadian 1:41.2 800m runner, want to help a British guy set a mile record? That makes no sense. Wouldn’t he make more money if he competed in the meet.
The top 4 sure looked capable of breaking the mile record in Paris but are we underestimating the effect of an olympic games on what occurred that day.
Kerr also said that if he achieves it then it will go down as his biggest achievement ahead of his world golds and olympic medals so with a british crowd screaming the roof off he obviously beliefs he'll do it .
Not a Kerr fan but you've got to admire his balls of putting it out there.
It certainly could be suggested considering he had no one to break the wind for him which from my observations (not scientific) is worth a second per mile. You subtract 2.3 from that and get 3:26.4 which I think is realistic given how much he dominated the field by.
Not talking about Jakob! I think it is understood that Jakob was better than Yared and El Guerrouj better than Ngeny more than their respective margins as both took the wind for 600 and 400 meters respectively. Jakob also has meat on the bone from Monaco with 400m unpaced (and his fastest splits). That’s why a maximal record would either be a best with illegal pacing or perhaps have a late pass from the trailing athlete. It doesn’t seem like Kerr will have more than 1209m pacing unless he’s scooped up a ridiculous pacer. Arop is my best case.
Where did I say I was talking about Jakob? I was replying to your comment about Tim.
I was kind of disappointed that they wont have Jakob/the top guys in the race. He said that he wants a real race. But when asked about Jakob, he made it very clear that there wont be any money to pay him and that the ones calling the shots would be protective of him/uk athletes.
Kerr can either go for the record or win a race against top competition. Going for a record means taking a risk -- one he can't take when there's competition that can beat him. Can't have it both ways.
Didn't he say he’s going for the WR in London? That means he’ll have to take the lead from the pacer and bring it home. He, and everyone else, have lost DL races and who shows up won’t be a factor in trying to set a WR. If he does run 3:42, he’s going to win in any scenario.
Why would a Canadian 1:41.2 800m runner, want to help a British guy set a mile record? That makes no sense. Wouldn’t he make more money if he competed in the meet.
They became friends through GST, it was somewhat evident in all BTS videos. And they could pay him. Though yes I'd agree Marco could make more racing the meet, so he'd likely be doing it as a favor somewhat even if he did get compensated pretty well.
Where did I say I was talking about Jakob? I was replying to your comment about Tim.
I don't understand your comment then. When did Tim run 3:28.7 and dominate a field by a lot. Jakob dominated the Monaco 2024 field. If Tim's heyday of frontrunning, no way was he running much extra distance.
Where did I say I was talking about Jakob? I was replying to your comment about Tim.
I don't understand your comment then. When did Tim run 3:28.7 and dominate a field by a lot. Jakob dominated the Monaco 2024 field. If Tim's heyday of frontrunning, no way was he running much extra distance.
Never mind, I thought you were talking about Tim dominating the 2019 championships
“A second-plus” lol. He went from 3:29.72 kicking off a relatively slow 1200 in Rome to 3:27.49 front running the final 500 in Paris. At least a couple dozen guys throughout history could have done the former. Maybe 5 have ever done (or had the ability to do) the latter. Kind of shocking for a B tier athlete…
Kerr needs to run his PB and then hold the pace for another 109m. That isn’t happening without serious chemical intervention. If he left as much meat on the bone in Paris as you’re describing, we’d have seen evidence of it by now. Nothing about his profile suggests he’s ever been a 3:26 guy.
He'd run 3:29.2 in Oslo in the past. In Rome, yes we have the race analysis and he ran 1511.7 so he cut off nearly a whole 8 meters of running in Paris. He also cleaned up a 29.11 segment from 100 to 300 in Rome and his Paris splits were near-perfection. His final 100 in Rome was 12.8 too, which indicates he wasn't close to maxed out at 1400m.
Why would a Canadian 1:41.2 800m runner, want to help a British guy set a mile record? That makes no sense. Wouldn’t he make more money if he competed in the meet.
They became friends through GST, it was somewhat evident in all BTS videos. And they could pay him. Though yes I'd agree Marco could make more racing the meet, so he'd likely be doing it as a favor somewhat even if he did get compensated pretty well.
OK, but what about the 1209 meters? If Arop takes it through 1200m in 2:45, he might only last another nine meters.
People in LR are gung-ho about super pacers, but I think someone getting paced close to 1300m, will leave a bad taste in some people’s mouths. Will anyone challenging Kerr’s new WR also have to find a 1:41 guy to help them out? Will hardworking real pacers be losing paydays?
“A second-plus” lol. He went from 3:29.72 kicking off a relatively slow 1200 in Rome to 3:27.49 front running the final 500 in Paris. At least a couple dozen guys throughout history could have done the former. Maybe 5 have ever done (or had the ability to do) the latter. Kind of shocking for a B tier athlete…
Kerr needs to run his PB and then hold the pace for another 109m. That isn’t happening without serious chemical intervention. If he left as much meat on the bone in Paris as you’re describing, we’d have seen evidence of it by now. Nothing about his profile suggests he’s ever been a 3:26 guy.
He'd run 3:29.2 in Oslo in the past. In Rome, yes we have the race analysis and he ran 1511.7 so he cut off nearly a whole 8 meters of running in Paris. He also cleaned up a 29.11 segment from 100 to 300 in Rome and his Paris splits were near-perfection. His final 100 in Rome was 12.8 too, which indicates he wasn't close to maxed out at 1400m.
Like I said, Habz was dragged to that time in Oslo, it’s not comparable at all. Rome is the better performance and even it doesn’t explain his 3:27.49 with only 1k of pacing. How did he run faster than all 3 Paris medalists with far less help in spite of being an obviously inferior athlete? Cutting 8 meters doesn’t take you from B tier to one of the fastest ever.
Why should I believe Kerr has plenty of room to improve on his 3:27.79? It’s an enormous outlier on his service record. He had a chance at a fast 1500 last year and ran 3:29.3 for 2nd. Not convincing.
Never mind, I thought you were talking about Tim dominating the 2019 championships
Roger. In Tim’s heyday there’s no question he was in 3:27 if not 3:26 shape. His pacing was often bad, and wavelights weren’t yet a thing. He ran 3:28.4 with pretty bad splits (53/58/56/40?)