Keely in 1:52 Shape?

The question isn't is she is the best in the world or not, the question is if she can run 1.52 or even break the WR.

So we have seen a very clear pattern with her top end performances so far and if you don't know, let me help you out with it. These are her lifetime sub 1.55 performances.

1.54.61 > 56.5

1.54.74 > 56.7

1.54.87 > 56.01

1.54.91 > 55.85

With her two best performances (separated by 0.13 seconds) the first laps are also very consistent (separated by 0.2 seconds). But when that first lap pace really starts to increase? She runs slower.

So how on earth is she going to run under 1.53 if she can't manage at least a 56.0 first lap without the ability to run faster than 58 and change in the second lap? That's not an issue of speed because 51.0 ability means a 56.0 or even 55 high split is easily manageable with that 400m ability. The issue is that improving her 400m (let's say she got it to the low 50's) really only indicates an increase in anaerobic power and maybe a little anaerobic capacity, but not her anaerobic threshold point, which for women (who don't have as much testosterone as men, obviously) is developed through over-distance work below 800m race pace that pertains to 1500m ability. That's why it's pointless looking at Kratochvilova, because it wasn't her 400m ability that got her the WR, it was the fact she had so much testosterone in her body plus god knows what else, that he physiological profile more closely resembled a high school boy than it did any form of female.

It doesn't matter if 1500m is her distance or not. And even if she was to break 4min it wouldn't be her distance anyway because the new standard of excellence globally is sub sub 3.55. But it's the physiological traits she would gain by being a sub 4min runner that is absolutely crucial to running times around/under 1.53.0. Which is what this thread is about.

Trevor Painter and Jenny Meadows did an interview / Q&A session on Friday that's now available on YouTube:

In it they talk about a few things relevant to this thread.

On the indoor WR (at 55:56):
- The time was only the bare minimum of what they were looking for.
- Werro being added to the race caused a way too fast time of 25 high through the first 200m which in turn made the last 200m slower than they could have been.
- During warm-up for the indoor final she felt good and wanted to go for another record, but they talked her out of it.

On the 4x400m (at 59:44):
- They've been begging for Hodgkinson to be included for years, but it was hard to find an opportunity for her to show that she merited inclusion.
- Painter feels she can run a 50. individual 400m this year and probably a 49. relay leg.

On breaking the outdoor WR:
They were both asked if they think Keely will break the world record.
Meadows said yes.
Painter Would only say that if everything comes together on the day it might happen.
He also added that a true peak last no more then 6-7 weeks if you're lucky so at best it might be possible to have two WR attempts this outdoor season.

Thank you!

Essentially an hour talking about Keely, repeating multiple times over her success this winter was staying injury free for M11's 5-month "phase 1" training session.

Trevor/Jenny stated she had barely come out of phase 1 last summer due to the winter hamstring injury, yet still managed a couple of 1:54s.

Now she comes out of their fall/winter phase 1 training unscathed -- and runs another 1:54.

And, very noteworthy T&J consider Keely's 1:54.87 WR "the bare minimum" they expected for the too-fast opening 200 explanation stated above.

Also stated, ideally, an open 400 would preceded an 800 pr attempt.

Thus, assuming Keely stays healthy for whatever M11's "phase 2" training may be, seems likely she will open up in June in one of those Euro DL meets with a rust-buster 800, then race an open 400. Then all-out for the WR @ Pre.

If Keely runs a 50-point -- as T&J stated they believe she can -- then using the Keely Equation explained in earlier posts, she'll be in peak condition for a 1:53-flat if not faster. Would just need everything to go right in the Mutola 800 race to execute the race plan with a couple of back-to-back 56.5 splits.

Would they not prefer to have any WR attempt be at the London DL?

There I presume they'd be able to influence the rest of the field to some extent and maybe get GHB in as a pacer, if that's something she'd be willing to do for her teammate.

She's already been announced for the Stockholm DL on June 7th, but that's probably too early.

First, thx for the Stockholm update. That's likely her outdoor opener.

Regarding London (7/18), yes, likely would prefer to set the WR in front of the home crowd -- and make it a huge day for Athletics in GBR if Kerr does the same.

However, with Keely opening her outdoor season on 6/7 -- or maybe earlier -- she'll have enough time to race a 400 then fly to Eugene for the Pre Classic (7/4). Where she's one of the meet headliners, racing the Mutola 800 which will include one GHB:

eugene.diamondleague.com

Prefontaine Classic to Welcome the World’s Newest Record Setter

Maria Mutola won 16 races at The Prefontaine Classic over the course of her career, with 12 of those wins happening when she toed the line in 800m

Open link

If Keely's prior month of training & racing indicate a WR attempt is a Go, then Pre will be her 1st attempt. London will be the back-up. Or, maybe Keely gets back-to-back WRs.

Sure looks like that's the way it is shaping up.

Sub 2 indoors in her first ever 800m shows she should stick to the 400m? Interesting

Nope. More the fact that she ran one race then got injured!

I do think the narrative has changed a bit around Femke so don’t get your hopes up she’ll be back running 800s any time soon. I don’t actually think she enjoyed it either.

I think it's safe to say that the "great 800m coach"'s formula falls apart when applied to the current world record holder Kratochvílová.

What is the point of off distances? They're wastes of otherwise good opportunities to grab a standard distance record.

Haha okay Les, I won't say who he is - but he's coached an 800m WR holder which I guarantee is more your what's on your resume, so cool your jets big boy - he might know a thing or two.

And no kidding it falls apart when applied to Kratochvílová - not sure how one would account for a human being that circumvented and enhanced their natural physiology with god-knows how many different types of anabolic steroids.

Could you have werro in the race and not get in the way though?

Agreed! It is from the other end of things, she needs to be a 3:58 1500m runner in order to run 1:52.xx. Totally correct here. It doesn't seem many understand this though. Yes, 400m ability is important too but with less testosterone as men, it doesn't work quite the same as just "get faster in the 400."

She'd be less likely to get in the way outdoors as it would be much easier to pass her when she slows down.

However, if you're racing against someone who is attempting to break the world record, and you know that even with ideal pacing you wouldn't be capable of breaking it yourself, then - assuming your goal is to win the race, which is a perfectly valid aim - it's in your best interest to do whatever you can to disrupt or derail their record attempt.

I’m really curious who will eventually break this record.

There is still a whole list of tainted women’s records from the 1980s.

If she goes sub 1:54 you could already see her as the real world record holder.

Cheers, but evidently Les knows better :D

You don't know what you are talking about. Femke is back training for the 800m and she is already talking about her season in the 800m. Maybe you don't understand that the 800m is her new event, she isn't going back to the 400mh. She has already said that the injury is due to the fact that she changed her training, and she will get used to it

Keely now signed up for 400 in Rome three days ahead of Stockholm 800

That is pure invention. Nothing has changed. Femke Bol is now an 800 runner. She wouldn't be doing 40km bike rides if she didn't like the 800 and planned to abandon it.

By all accounts the injury was not anything serious. It was a planned attempt at the indoor 600 world record. She dropped out of that race due to a tendon issue that surfaced during training weeks earlier and then aggravated during the 800 opener.

However, nobody seems to have paid any attention to the timetable. There were other things going on. Bol dropped out of the 600 race which was scheduled for February 19. Then last month she revealed she got married on February 21.

I'd suggest the February 21 date was already in place. A minor injury conveniently helped establish the correct focus and priority.

Oh come on. It’s not a great start is it? She’s raced once and got injured. Even without the injury she wouldn’t have been that close to Keely and the other leaders in the world. Yet now she has zero experience apart from once race AND hasn’t been able to train for the event….

It takes years to perfect the 800m. Keely used to make lots of tactical mistakes and she’s always run the 800m.

Think you’re getting a bit over enthusiastic about Femke’s chances. But it’s always good to have some new competition.

I say all of this as a Femke fan - she has the most beautiful, elegant form and makes her running look effortless.