Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
I am interested/curious as to why people are so bullish on Josh Kerr here. He and Fisher are the same age (28) and just like Fisher, are on the descent of their careers. But Fisher as a primarily 5/10 guy just doesn't have the same anaerobic damage as Kerr will have and it's always easier coming down distance than going up. Fisher already has the race last week in Boston under his belt - the last time we saw Josh Kerr it was hobbling off the track in Tokyo. For me Hocker is the overwhelming favorite in this one (because I think he is extremely motivated to win this after his public disappointment of losing the 3 last year), with Fisher in second and Kerr behind both. But that's just my gut feeling.
I’ve never been a Kerr fan but I think there’s some presumptuous, probably biased drivel above, regarding Kerr’s “anaerobic damage” and the challenge of moving up in distance. Kerr is already the WR-holder at 8:00, so there’s no moving up necessary. He’s won this race (Millrose 2-mile/3k) the last 2 times he entered, in ‘23 and ‘24. He became a World Indoor 3k champion less than 2 years ago.
He’s 28, not 34, and his best year in totality was 2024. Last year he got the better of Nuguse and Hocker in GST 1500s (winning 2/3), ran 3:29.37 for 2nd at the London DL, and qualified for the Worlds final before getting injured. It was a “meh” season after 2023 and 2024 and obviously ended in disappointment, but I see no reason to assume he’s on a meaningful decline.
It’s true it’s his season opener and we can only guess what form he’s in, but he opened 2023 and 2024 with this same race and knocked both out of the park with decisive victories. And Kerr, more so than some guys like Hocker or Wightman, seems to line up only when he’s prepared to contend for the W.