2020 is a much better example of this, NAU top four stuck together as a pack most of the way and ended up clustered from 4-9
No NAU runner had even the remotest chance of beating Connor Mantz that year so no one was taking one for the team. Hedengren does seem to have a chance to win and my money says she’ll go right to the front and maybe even takes the lead.
Hendegren vs the field, I'd still take Hendegren. It's not like she is going out hard and slowing. She is going out hard, then still runs faster the last 1k... by herself! I would not be surprised to see her eventually break 18 for xc 6k. For this year with good weather, 1815 would not remotely surprise me. Doris looked good on what appeared to be a tough course. I expect the individual and team race to simply be awesome.
Tuohy did win the race and was correct in thinking Valby would comeback. Until she broke away, she ran at the front of the chase pack and was not pacing any teammates.
Valby did not "come back." She ran an even pace. Tuohy ran a huge negative split to hunt her down. (She ran 3:17/km for the first 4k and then 3:09/km for the last 2k.) It would have been so much easier if she had run even.
And the "pacer" usually stays ahead of runners they are trying to pace. You don't pace others from behind.
Usually when you pace others, the group runs as a pack with strongest 1-2 runners in front. The pack will stay together to the 4k or 5k mark, and then it's on your own from there.
Tuohy may have been conservative to avoid blowing up, but it didn't really help her teammates much.
Hendegren vs the field, I'd still take Hendegren. It's not like she is going out hard and slowing. She is going out hard, then still runs faster the last 1k... by herself! I would not be surprised to see her eventually break 18 for xc 6k. For this year with good weather, 1815 would not remotely surprise me. Doris looked good on what appeared to be a tough course. I expect the individual and team race to simply be awesome.
2003. Ryan Hall ran to win the team race not to win the individual race. On that day, I believe he would have beaten Ritz if he had gone out harder. His team running allowed Stanford to put up one of the best ncaa xc results ever. Stanford 24 Wisconsin 174.
Hall's teammates didn't need him to hang back for them to dominate. Stanford was the defending champion, and they returned the top 5 from the year before (plus Hall, who was their #6), when 4 of those 5 guys finished in the top 9 overall.
Wait, Hall was only 6th man one year in college? And went to top man the very next year?
Wait, Hall was only 6th man one year in college? And went to top man the very next year?
3 Grant Robison, Jr 29:36.7 Stanford 5 Louis Luchini. Jr 29:41.0 Stanford 6 Donald Sage, Jr 29:44.4 Stanford 9 Ian Dobson, Jr 29:47.2 Stanford 29 Adam Tenforde, Jr 30:25.2 Stanford 37 Ryan Hall, So 30:31.0 Stanford 99 Peter Meindl, Fr 31:07.4 Stanford
Wait, Hall was only 6th man one year in college? And went to top man the very next year?
3 Grant Robison, Jr 29:36.7 Stanford 5 Louis Luchini. Jr 29:41.0 Stanford 6 Donald Sage, Jr 29:44.4 Stanford 9 Ian Dobson, Jr 29:47.2 Stanford 29 Adam Tenforde, Jr 30:25.2 Stanford 37 Ryan Hall, So 30:31.0 Stanford 99 Peter Meindl, Fr 31:07.4 Stanford
Yes, those Stanford teams were loaded, and as shown above, their top 5 in 2002 were all ahead of Hall in school and older.
Compared to Ritz and Webb, Hall seemed to have a more gradual adaptation to the NCAA. Their freshman year, Ritz finished 4th at the national XC championship, Webb was 11th, and Hall was 76th. Then Ritz and Webb shined in track (although not as much as Webb would have liked) while Hall redshirted.
I think having such a deep distance squad gave Stanford the luxury of being patient with Hall's development. They didn't need to rush him to be able to score points. He had a very nice progression, going from 76th in XC to 37th to 2nd.
3 Grant Robison, Jr 29:36.7 Stanford 5 Louis Luchini. Jr 29:41.0 Stanford 6 Donald Sage, Jr 29:44.4 Stanford 9 Ian Dobson, Jr 29:47.2 Stanford 29 Adam Tenforde, Jr 30:25.2 Stanford 37 Ryan Hall, So 30:31.0 Stanford 99 Peter Meindl, Fr 31:07.4 Stanford
Yes, those Stanford teams were loaded, and as shown above, their top 5 in 2002 were all ahead of Hall in school and older.
Compared to Ritz and Webb, Hall seemed to have a more gradual adaptation to the NCAA. Their freshman year, Ritz finished 4th at the national XC championship, Webb was 11th, and Hall was 76th. Then Ritz and Webb shined in track (although not as much as Webb would have liked) while Hall redshirted.
I think having such a deep distance squad gave Stanford the luxury of being patient with Hall's development. They didn't need to rush him to be able to score points. He had a very nice progression, going from 76th in XC to 37th to 2nd.
Are you sure that Hall wasn’t hindered by injuries during those first two XC seasons? Colleges coaches typically want a return on their scholarship investment, and they want it right now.
Yes, those Stanford teams were loaded, and as shown above, their top 5 in 2002 were all ahead of Hall in school and older.
Compared to Ritz and Webb, Hall seemed to have a more gradual adaptation to the NCAA. Their freshman year, Ritz finished 4th at the national XC championship, Webb was 11th, and Hall was 76th. Then Ritz and Webb shined in track (although not as much as Webb would have liked) while Hall redshirted.
I think having such a deep distance squad gave Stanford the luxury of being patient with Hall's development. They didn't need to rush him to be able to score points. He had a very nice progression, going from 76th in XC to 37th to 2nd.
Are you sure that Hall wasn’t hindered by injuries during those first two XC seasons? Colleges coaches typically want a return on their scholarship investment, and they want it right now.
Yes, I vaguely recall him having injuries while in college, but I don't remember the extent or timing of them. His old Stanford bio mentions him being injured during the 2004 track season, but it doesn't cite any injuries during his first two years in XC.
Stanford: The reigning Pac-10 Cross Country Athlete of the Year returns from a stellar junior season in which he was the individual runnerup at the NCAA Championship.2003 Cross Country Season (Junior
2003. Ryan Hall ran to win the team race not to win the individual race. On that day, I believe he would have beaten Ritz if he had gone out harder. His team running allowed Stanford to put up one of the best ncaa xc results ever. Stanford 24 Wisconsin 174.
Hall staying with his teammates didn’t make any difference in that race and if he had won the race instead, his teammates would been stoked for him. If it was you, would you expect a teammate with the ability to win, to hang back with you? Seems kind of selfish to me. Instead of wanting him to slow down for you, maybe you could aspire to improve to run his normal pace.
I don't have a BYU sticker on my face, but if I was on that team, I'd want Jane to bring the magic. "Do your thing and we'll take care of the rest."
Nico and Drew's whole thing in 2023 was to not pull their teammates. They went out super hard and left everyone besides Hicks in the dust
Never quite understood this mindset. The best thing you can do for your team is to get 1 point!
This engenders another idea, as follows:
Since NC State is currently the overwhelming favorite on paper, stringing the peloton out with Jane’s dust-in-the-wind front-running would play into NC State’s favor. Consequently, it would help BYU’s chances if the race is slow, and so Jane is going to hold back.
Before the season there were a few threads predicting how Jane would do this fall. Most said probably in top 10 and maybe around 7 or so. The way she demolished the field at conference was really eye-opening.
Never quite understood this mindset. The best thing you can do for your team is to get 1 point!
This engenders another idea, as follows:
Since NC State is currently the overwhelming favorite on paper, stringing the peloton out with Jane’s dust-in-the-wind front-running would play into NC State’s favor. Consequently, it would help BYU’s chances if the race is slow, and so Jane is going to hold back.
I therefore will not be surprised if this race becomes a tactical affair. Consequently, maybe Napoleon will one of the first to eventually break it open. As good as she is, I can’t see her taking on that responsibility from as far out as 2k from the finish. Thus, that responsibility will fall on Hartman.
Since NC State is currently the overwhelming favorite on paper, stringing the peloton out with Jane’s dust-in-the-wind front-running would play into NC State’s favor. Consequently, it would help BYU’s chances if the race is slow, and so Jane is going to hold back.
I therefore will not be surprised if this race becomes a tactical affair. Consequently, maybe Napoleon will one of the first to eventually break it open. As good as she is, I can’t see her taking on that responsibility from as far out as 2k from the finish. Thus, that responsibility will fall on Hartman.
So at the 4k mark, Hartman ratchets it down, leading the front pack that starts to splinter. Jane, Doris, Kosgei, will be one step back, with Napoleon stalking (Jelego, Naukot, Bonnie-Dalton, Cherotich, Chamberlain, etc. might be hanging on as well.) But with 1k to go, it might likely be just Hartman, Jane and Kosgei…and maybe Napoleon and Cherotich still there.
However, I’m having some doubts Hartman is back to the level she displayed at last year’s Natty’s. In order to improve BYU’s trophy chances, it behooves Jane to keep this race slow as possible.
I therefore will not be surprised if this race becomes a tactical affair. Consequently, maybe Napoleon will one of the first to eventually break it open. As good as she is, I can’t see her taking on that responsibility from as far out as 2k from the finish. Thus, that responsibility will fall on Hartman.
So at the 4k mark, Hartman ratchets it down, leading the front pack that starts to splinter. Jane, Doris, Kosgei, will be one step back, with Napoleon stalking (Jelego, Naukot, Bonnie-Dalton, Cherotich, Chamberlain, etc. might be hanging on as well.) But with 1k to go, it might likely be just Hartman, Jane and Kosgei…and maybe Napoleon and Cherotich still there.
However, I’m having some doubts Hartman is back to the level she displayed at last year’s Natty’s. In order to improve BYU’s trophy chances, it behooves Jane to keep this race slow as possible.
And if team Doris wants to repeat, her coach may send her at the 4k mark, and she will be the rabbit from there (instead of Hartman). But if she waits until the 5k mark to go, somebody from NC State better be going, or else.
