His dad should have bought him his own personal wavelights to help him more evenly pace. If Usa TF refused to install them, maybe he could have hired a blimp to ride over the stadium and project the light's down into lane 1 for him. No stone unturned.
Front running can and does work when used sensibly for someone like Hoey. Going out in 24.2 isn't sensible and that was his downfall, even though he held on decently. 3 other Americans just ran better at the same trials then any 3 Americans ever have and that's the ONLY reason Hoey's tactics backfired.
It’s crazy that people are calling a 3.8ish second differential race for a 1:43 idiotic. It was one second off of his PB after rounds, probably a performance worth 1:42.6-1:42.8 on fresh legs. His performance would historically win USAs with no contest.
He lost to the American record holder and two people whom I think hold the potential to break the world record.
Nope. Irrational idiocy. His father’s money can’t buy him smarts. He’s been at the world level for a cup of coffee, no need to look past winning a national title. Running a 49 low like a rabbit? Thinking he could win in 1:41? Both ridiculous. All he had to do was let Miller lead. They tripped each other breaking in going for the lead. Miller would have set the pace and it would have not been 49 low.
It’s crazy that people are calling a 3.8ish second differential race for a 1:43 idiotic. It was one second off of his PB after rounds, probably a performance worth 1:42.6-1:42.8 on fresh legs. His performance would historically win USAs with no contest.
He lost to the American record holder and two people whom I think hold the potential to break the world record.
A 3.8 differential for Josh Hoey is quite literally idiotic. For someone with multiple 1:42s and a 3:29 1500 PR with a season of very strong finishing 100 in both, he should be at a 2 second edging towards one second differential. ....Reminds me of the 2019 DL Zurich when Nigel Amos went through 400 in 48.xx and had a literal 25 meter lead on Brazier with 200 to go...but Brazier ran him down in the last 50 when Amos started practically running backwards while Brazier was on the afterburners. Amos (1:42.98) had a 4.5 second differential and Brazier (1:42.70) had a 1 second differential.
Never been a fan of the "front running doesn't work" argument.
That being said, Nuguse (who beat Hocker/Strand handidly at Pre) and Hoey (who hasn't lost to Hoppel this year) not being on the team is definitely supporting to that argument
Front running does work. It's just dependent on venue and conditions. Hayward has a notoriously bad headwind on the back stretch, and it's also a super windy day. If those are things that I was aware of before the race, Hoey should have known too.
It works rarely and generally requires a very superior athlete.
The greatest ignorance is the conventional wisdom that 800 frontrunners need to push the third 200. Dwight Stones and countless others will never shut up with that ridiculous theme.
You've already done the work. Why give it away with a masochistic backstretch? It only works if you are easily the class of the field, or if you have gotten away with a dawdling opening 400 yet still lead.
Arop and numerous other frontrunners have fallen victim to that stupid tactic. Arop changed his style once he realized it didn't work at highest level.
A far superior tactic is to back off around the first turn of the second lap and see if the field will be content to settle behind you. Mary Moraa has gotten away with that countless times. Likewise Keely a few times, after stealing if from Moraa.
If they are tame and intimidated enough to stay there, now you've got plenty left to kick away at the 200 mark. It's essentially the tactic Kipyegon has used in almost every 1500 race her entire life.
Granted, the men's 800 fields these days won't often be content to sit back. But once I saw the 49 today I was yelling for Hoey to back off and attempt it. If he had managed even 30 or 40 meters at slightly reduced paced it could have made all the difference at the end.
Front running in an 800 is OK. Going out at 49.2 on a windy day is not. Note that Wanyonyi went out in 50.0 last year in Paris minimal wind. In the world record, Rudisha sent 49.2 but there was no wind and he is a superior athlete. 50.0-50.5 should’ve been the target for Hoey. As it worked out lotta clean races behind him.
Yeah you summed that up perfectly.
What was really a problem for Hoey wasn't just the 49.29 400m split, but the 23.8/9 opening 200m.
So obviously with those numbers you've gone 23.8/25.5 or thereabouts. As you said that's Rudisha level stuff and he did that in perfect conditions in a race with the biggest stakes and motivation possible.
I am surprised because after that now somewhat infamous workout with the 47.6 middle 400 followed by one where he was clearly really struggling, I believed that someone in his camp would have said to him "yeah so the way you felt in that final 400?, if you want to lead the national final you can not get too excited in the opening lap or else your going to feel like that and run a 53" - and that's exactly what happened.