Athing Mu-Nikolayev looks much better - Runs 2:00.42 for 6th at Ed Murphey Classic, Akins 2:00.76 for 8th.

Hell yeah I’d be worried. Emmanuel Korir had a similar 2023 opening with injuries and a late start to the season and I didn’t think he’d have any chance in Budapest (and he didn’t).

Going from 2:03 to 2:00 isn't tough, going from 2:00 to 1:56-57 is a lot tougher, I can't believe so called distance runners forget the more you drop time the harder it is to keep dropping time. Kipyegon can attest to that. Sub 4...what a joke.

Yes of course but that is not what I asked. I agree there is great cause for concern but there is also reason for hope, even if the ratio is 80/20.

David Rudisha hadn't been a head case for the previous 2 years.

All the Charley Brown posters here are about to get the football pulled up again by Mu. This train wreck has been circling the drain for 3 years now.

Agree. And Mu was never Rudisha

Mu was actually more dominant than David in some ways.

This was not much better. She went out hard and faded hard. she would’ve run about this time at pre had she not jogged the last 150m. She’s washed. Speed is gone. Kersee ruined her.

I think the problems are physical, and you can’t fake fitness. So it’s not all too dissimilar at all. Sure Korir I think basically just couldn’t train because of hamstring problems, but it looks like Athing is limited in a similar way albeit due to more things stemming from the fall and unhappiness with the sport.

Who has a better chance of making their team, Athing or Brazier? I would say Athing, but I am not confident about it.

Anyone ever think Athing does not like pressure. Maybe she is sandbagging

"A man's got to know his limitations." -- Harry Callahan

Jonathan, with all due respect, you are unqualified to make such an assessment of Mu's trajectory. You don't have the personal athletic background, nor the observed/studied historical knowledge the sport, nor the intimate knowledge of Mu to make that opinion. I'm not trying to insult you, I'm simply saying your hubris is getting the better of you. Restrain yourself. You should respect your limitations. Are you cool with that?

You know the old adage, "Sometimes it's better to be quiet and be thought the fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt."

Never, EVER, attempt to speak for the readiness of an Olympic Gold medalist/World Champion/American Record-holder. She knows better than you.

On the other hand, with over 50 years of experience in the sport, I've seen this before. I've also been there, done that myself.

From personal experience:
May 26 -- 8:48.6 3000m steeplechase
June 11 -- 8:22.5 American record

I think Brazier easily.

OK but he too has to survive the rounds, and there could be some concern there. He also has to contend with two almost locks to make the team, so maybe there is only one spot for him, if he can take it.

I am with Malmo on this one for sure, but in fairness to Gault, he was listing positives and negatives. And of course there are some of both to be taken from this, but never bet against a champion who is theoretically still in her prime.

No doubt but he has looked comfortable running the times he has and those times are good. I guess that’s the difference. Maybe Malmo is right and this is some temporary funk but it’d surprise me

I'm taking Mu because the women's 800 is wide open. Brazier's fit, but Hoey's in AR shape, Hoppel's running 1:43.1, and Koech/Miller have both run 1:43. Making it through rounds and knocking off one of those guys is a tall order.

All the established 800 women are old, hurt, or having down years and the college runners might be burnt out. Wiley's the only one who looks like a lock. If Mu can get down to 1:58 shape she has a real shot, and I think she's talented enough that she has a chance to do that if she commits.

I think Mr. Gault is right here. 2:00 3 weeks away from USA's is OBJECTIVELY not a good indicator for USA's. No one is doubting her ability to get into decent enough form to make the team, but I think it is correct to say this performance wasn't exactly stellar and mention how this affects her odds at USA's. I mean she lost to FOUR other American women today. Huge gains in fitness like you describe are the exception not the rule. Definitely not betting against a talent like hers though.

you were a coach right?

not a genius, but know training and peaking.

Mu ran almost the same pace to 600m or so last race, and this race she improved 100m, for 2 flat, in the first race, in the last meters she jogged in.

and in the next training block of 2 weeks, with a 400m race in there, Mu is poised to extend the same pace all the way to 800m with is 158 and go from there.

Mu progression is pretty much the same in the season, from her year before the olympics..

did i say the same?

i wrote all this on the day of Mu's last race.