What's weird is you don't recognize that a 1:44 guy could run 3:31.
....
Okay Brandon Miller is a 1:43.5 guy can he run 3:31? Oh, oh Bryce Hoppel is a 1:41.7 guy has he run 3:31? That's not even adding the three 2024 Olympic 800m medalists who haven't come close to 3:31...so ummm🤔
I am pretty sure they could if they would focus on 1500
Believe this as much as Hoey's jump in performance. Quite ridiculous, all of it.
Koech a much different case. He’s gotten better every year and pretty steadily. He barely raced the 1500 and might’ve found his event. He was running 3:37 to win obscure events last year and 1:44 is sufficient to run 3:31 as we’ve seen. Is there more to come because the only top guy(s) in the race were Komen (coming off injury), Reynold (got jostled and came from way back), and Habz (who paced the entire race). He certainly looks ahead of Ciattei, Green, Strand etc. but Kessler might still be odds-on to beat him let alone the big 2.
If I remember correctly he got like 11th? at NCAA XC one year, so that mixed with the 800m speed (which is the event he mostly focused on) likely suggests a lot of 1500 potential
If I remember correctly he got like 11th? at NCAA XC one year, so that mixed with the 800m speed (which is the event he mostly focused on) likely suggests a lot of 1500 potential
This is a great callout. He won the Mountain Region one year and finished runner-up another year. This feels a little bit like a Lopez Lomong situation where you just choose the shortest distance you are competitive in for a while to your own detriment. If Koech had stayed in Kenya they would've probably moved him up to the 1500 year by age 23-24 as he stagnated in the 1:44-45 range, and showed promise in XC etc.
Now, I can say I'm not really sure why it took until 2025 even in the US. In 2022, he really did look good at USAs and even Worlds in the 800 (a shaky DQ in the rounds I believe) so I give them some leeway in not pursuing the 1500 that much in 2023 maybe.
Believe this as much as Hoey's jump in performance. Quite ridiculous, all of it.
Koech a much different case. He’s gotten better every year and pretty steadily. He barely raced the 1500 and might’ve found his event. He was running 3:37 to win obscure events last year and 1:44 is sufficient to run 3:31 as we’ve seen. Is there more to come because the only top guy(s) in the race were Komen (coming off injury), Reynold (got jostled and came from way back), and Habz (who paced the entire race). He certainly looks ahead of Ciattei, Green, Strand etc. but Kessler might still be odds-on to beat him let alone the big 2.
Koech a much different case. He’s gotten better every year and pretty steadily. He barely raced the 1500 and might’ve found his event. He was running 3:37 to win obscure events last year and 1:44 is sufficient to run 3:31 as we’ve seen. Is there more to come because the only top guy(s) in the race were Komen (coming off injury), Reynold (got jostled and came from way back), and Habz (who paced the entire race). He certainly looks ahead of Ciattei, Green, Strand etc. but Kessler might still be odds-on to beat him let alone the big 2.
Pointing out that Hoey (6 years of stagnation, then large jump in primary event) vs Koech (consistent improvement, then large jump in off event) isnt doping apologism. If you wanted to insist Koech is a doper, his comp is more Narve Nordas or Shelby Houlihan. We’ll see what he does in the 800.
Koech a much different case. He’s gotten better every year and pretty steadily. He barely raced the 1500 and might’ve found his event. He was running 3:37 to win obscure events last year and 1:44 is sufficient to run 3:31 as we’ve seen. Is there more to come because the only top guy(s) in the race were Komen (coming off injury), Reynold (got jostled and came from way back), and Habz (who paced the entire race). He certainly looks ahead of Ciattei, Green, Strand etc. but Kessler might still be odds-on to beat him let alone the big 2.
Okay but let's get real here for a second. If this was a North African, or a North African living in Europe (hint hint) or a Kenyan living in Kenya, people would quite rightly be beating the pots and tins and ushering words of caution - and fairly so given how we have seen a lot of history play out with cases like this. But because we are Baltimore "based" we are all good? Nothing to see here?
This is not quite a "friend of board" Mo Katir situation - yet, at least, but it's not that far off. Because in running 3.31.4 first race of the season, it's not unreasonable to think that with a few more of these under his belt (and this is now real because when you win a DL race over a distance you can now pick and choose what you want to do) he might run under 3.30 this year and then we have a guy going from 3.37 to under 3.30 across a season?
I don't really subscribe to the "just happened to maybe stumble across my best event" narrative if I'm honest. I look at his profile and he has 1500m performances on his portfolio as far back as 2016. He ran 3.40 in 2021 and 3.37 last year - thats an indicator of some level of competence so he/his coach/his agent know about - it's not like his 800m career has been so stellar it's kept him from running the distance because he's run between 1.44.8 and 1.44.3 across 2022, 24 and 25. And when I hear "been back in Kenya recently training" I won't lie, that is how could I put it nicely, "interesting".
I honestly don't know what to think, I guess I will still give benefit of the doubt but gawd damn if this guy didn't have an American connection the narrative on him right now would be very different and we all know this, right?
ThoughtsLeader is repeating almost word for word his regular defence of Katir (before he got busted).
ThoughtsLeader is repeating almost word for word his regular defence of Katir (before he got busted).
With Katir I was consistent that something major happened for him in the winter of 2021, and there should be scrutiny. I mostly pushed back when you started saying he was going to win the Olympics, set the 1500m World Record and was so rocket-fueled that as soon as he started getting tested he'd fall off a cliff. Lo and behold, it sure seems like he gamed the system by micro-dosing a couple of years with perhaps greater doping surround his missed tests. There're also reports he had perhaps some help with Spanish anti-doping.
It's funny how you pick and choose because George Mills who was a significantly worse 800m runner than Koech, who didn't have Koech's overdistance credentials either, went from 3:35 to 3:30.9/3:47 in one season and you certainly weren't on the case there.
Maybe so, but as long as he isn't running faster than 3:31, he isn't going to steal any championship berths from anyone. This is the era of US teenagers running 3:31.
It's funny how you pick and choose because George Mills who was a significantly worse 800m runner than Koech, who didn't have Koech's overdistance credentials either, went from 3:35 to 3:30.9/3:47 in one season and you certainly weren't on the case there.
I know this is comment "cherry picking" to some degree but come on now - this is not the same.
Mills was 23 when he made his jump and that coincided with the start of the OAC pro group in Europe. At that age with those circumstances and now knowing how good Mills is (solid international performer) - that is not eye-opening on any level. I would also add that in 2023 he started the season with his 3.35 PR, but ran 3.33.1, 3.33.8 and 3.31.5 before hitting that 3.30.9 PR.
That's not the same as having a 3.37.1 PR and first race of the season coming out with a 3.31.4 to win a DL. It's not unreasonable to think that a mid-pack performance in one of the better races that are upcoming could see him run very close to breaking 3.30 - and then what's the POV? 3.37 to sub 3.30 at age 28? It's the age and the "just been training in Kenya" that really grabs attention on this one. The Mills comp I just don't see.