Prefontaine mile field announced: Hocker vs Ingebrigtsen vs Nuguse (No Kerr)

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Thoughts:

1) Man, this is a big workload for Hocker and Nuguse. Irrespective of how much you want to buy into the whole "training through is (GST)" narrative, it's still a big physical commitment and also an even bigger mental one. It will be 9 races by July 5. That's no joke.

2) Jakob obviously has to run here contractually and Nike aren't budging (and they shouldn't). I'd doubt if he had a choice he would fly to Eugene to run this and then back to Monaco, almost everyones favorite venue to really chase a time, 6 days later if he had the choice. Like you I'd guess he wants to make it count. The mile is a far more gettable record for him and I think in terms of the non-Olympic distances it's the biggest one to get. It would eliminate El G from the record books in an event he really went after more than just once or twice (like the 2k). You have to believe he wants to make it count.

3) Speaking of which, what does this mean for Monaco? No DL 1500m but that meet is in the category of "do what they want to" and athletes will always front - it's been the fastest MD meet now for at least a decade.

Obviously it's still possible to do it but will he? What impact does the travel have on him? He may try the old "zero time zone adjustment" trick and fly into Portland as late as he possibly can and leave as early as he possibly can (the night after the meet) which probably would be fine. He would get back to Europe with 4 days of full rest to (possibly?) go after the 1500 record which he would surely try, especially if he broke the mile.

Otherwise it kind of limits his shots at the WR because there might only be Silesia left as a legit chance, but he clearly likes that meet and has only ever run well there (3.27.14 and 7.17.55 - not bad ;) Going to be a pivotal season for him in many ways and great to see unfold.

rappatic wrote:

Will this be his season opener?

This is such a long season and racing too early might mean a mistimed peak. If he opens in Rome or Oslo that's over three months (101 days) before Worlds. If he opens in Eugene he won't have to worry about peaking too early and will still have two months of racing before Worlds. He can easily get the Diamond League to change one of the later 1500m races to a mile, so it wouldn't prevent him from making a run at the mile WR.

For reference, he opened last year on May 25th, the Paris Olympics 1500m was on August 6th (73 days after his season opener), and the Diamond League final was on September 13th (111 days after his season opener). He and the rest of the field were noticeably flat for that last race. I don't know if he wants to risk mistiming the peak by opening too early.

Jonathan Gault wrote:

yay marxism wrote:

I hate Kerr as much as the next guy but let him focus on getting healthy. Also is Jakob going to do Pre and Monaco? Are they not close together this year.

I'm guessing this means no Monaco for Jakob. He did run Oslo five days after Pre last year, but that was his home meet with sentimental value. Monaco is six days after Pre this year.

Monaco also doesn't have a DL men's 1500 this year. Of course Monaco could add one outside of the DL program if it wants to, and I'm sure athletes would show up. But I'm guessing Jakob will pass this year. Here's my best guess as to what his outdoor season will look like.

Oslo (June 12): 5k
Ostrava (June 24): He's committed, distance TBD.
Prefontaine (July 5): Mile
Silesia (August 16): He's committed, distance TBD. But I'd guess this is his best shot at a fast 1500.
Zurich DL final (August 27-28): Distance TBD but probably 1500.
Worlds (September 13-21): 1500/5K.

He may fit in another 1500 or two in there somewhere.

I think the 5k in Oslo, the mile at Pre, and the 1500 in Silesia are where he should take shots at the WR. He's 24, which doesn't feel old. But he's also in/close to his prime and has been relatively healthy the last few years. The future is never a given, so he needs to take his shots at the WRs while he can. I think it would make sense to go after the 5k and mile early, then take a break after Pre and get in a nice training block in St. Moritz before going for the 1500 (the hardest of the three for him) in Silesia.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

I think Jakob will target the world records at Oslo (5,000) and Silesia (1,500/mile). Monaco I think will shell out for world record attempts in the W1000/M800 and then Tebogo/Lyles in the M200.

I agree that's most likely.

If he broke the record in Oslo it would be absolutely incredible given he's only broken 13 once in his career. And sure, he's been capable of it but irrespective of that, going from 12.48 to (potentially) sub 12.35 with such limited time-chasing in the event would be jaw-dropping.

Silesia simply has to be the 1500, right? If the 1500m record is real thing I think he needs to be giving himself more than one shot at it this season so that would leave Silesia and Brussels because the DL final traditionally hasn't been overly fast (only once under 3.30). Plus it would be highly unlikely he runs twice for the mile record and potentially only once for the 1500m record given his professed preference for the metric distance.

Trondheim wrote:

Jonathan Gault wrote:

I'm guessing this means no Monaco for Jakob. He did run Oslo five days after Pre last year, but that was his home meet with sentimental value. Monaco is six days after Pre this year.

Monaco also doesn't have a DL men's 1500 this year. Of course Monaco could add one outside of the DL program if it wants to, and I'm sure athletes would show up. But I'm guessing Jakob will pass this year. Here's my best guess as to what his outdoor season will look like.

Oslo (June 12): 5k
Ostrava (June 24): He's committed, distance TBD.
Prefontaine (July 5): Mile
Silesia (August 16): He's committed, distance TBD. But I'd guess this is his best shot at a fast 1500.
Zurich DL final (August 27-28): Distance TBD but probably 1500.
Worlds (September 13-21): 1500/5K.

He may fit in another 1500 or two in there somewhere.

I think the 5k in Oslo, the mile at Pre, and the 1500 in Silesia are where he should take shots at the WR. He's 24, which doesn't feel old. But he's also in/close to his prime and has been relatively healthy the last few years. The future is never a given, so he needs to take his shots at the WRs while he can. I think it would make sense to go after the 5k and mile early, then take a break after Pre and get in a nice training block in St. Moritz before going for the 1500 (the hardest of the three for him) in Silesia.

Would have to disagree regarding the “relatively healthy” statement. Major injury setback period at just the beginning of last year.