Webb beats Bekele in a tactical 5k?

Lucida wrote:

A couple of things.

I have no doubt that Bekele is as fast as Webb over the mile/1500m, Bekele has much better explosiveness, Webb ain't no El Guerrouj.

Doubtful. Webb would trounce him over 1500 meters. Running 53 at the end of the 10k is not like going sub 55 at the end of a 3:32, which is where Webb will be this year, in fact he'll be better than that. Bekele's 'explosiveness' would be gone, zip, nada in a fast 1500. He knows that, or he'd have already run some big 1500's.

Umm you guys are crediting Webb with a kick that he doesn't have. If Webb did have a miler's kick, why would he lead the rounds in Worlds, get knocked out of the first round in the Olympics,and run suicidal in Helenski? Webb is not known for his wheels at the end of a race, so why would he outkick Bekele in a race?

you cannot be serious.

me three wrote:

Sure ANYthing is possible, but against the greatest runner of all-time (bekele), who virtually never has a bad race, thinking Webb could outkick him in a 5k is really, really, silly. In a tactical mile Webb could do it. But mile does NOT = 5k.

A strength 3:48 miler hitting the bell in a slow 5K will be a good race for anyone. Webb could definitely hit :52 in that scenario, and that would put him right there. Remember that he's outkicked Lagat before.

One thing about kipchoge. Yeah, he outkicked both El G and Bekele, but he has also run 12:45 for 5000m!

Yeah, Lagat ran like crap when Webb "outkicked" him.

How often does Bekele have a bad race ???

(and by "bad", I don't mean getting a silver medal to the greatest miler ever by less than a second, or struggling in one's first races back after your fiancee drops dead. I mean finishing way off what one would expect. Bekele doesn't do it virtually ever).

I'm speaking only of a 13:20's type race, where Webb would have all of his reserves intact. He could rip a :52, and Bekele wouldn't exactly go much faster.

There's the first error of youre logic is in the first of youre assumption that Bekele is gonna let the race stay at 1320 pace... name 3 races in the last year that Bekele has let a race go within 10 seconds of that slow, name the last time he didnt break 13 for a 5k... The assumption that the pace would be that slow is outrageous when the A standards for worlds are 13:21, the next is the assumption that at 13:20 Webb would have full reserves, cause Bekele in a race that slow would have already started a huge neg. split at 2.5k-ish and because 13:20 is only 10 seconds off his PR. To think Bekele, who runs the second half of 10000m faster than 13:20 when FRESH(an original condition of the question I believe), is going to run a mere 13:20 is foolish... then the assumption, (forgeting your first assumption begin complete incorrect for a moment) is that Bekele after running that slow for that long would only be able to run a 52 final quarter, logically he would most-likely have more left than that if after running 24 laps at comparable avg. pace he has a 52 left in him (assuming they close in 52 thus they hit 400 lap to go at 1228 which equals around 2705-2715 10000m pace somewhere in there but i dont wanna get out the calculator to prove someone completely wrong... again), wouldnt one logically find the kick as stronger and faster due to the greatly reduced distance( look at his XC invinciblity, he has a winners kick aka enough to always win), or are you trying to imply that Bekele is recovering at that kind of pace thus his kick is going to get faster as the distance increases?, I hope you now see youre stupidity and do everyone the pleasure of never posting again, not because you tried to critique someone light years faster than you, but due to youre irrevelant, false arguements that mind as well shout I love WEBB therefore he'll win against anybody cause I think he will... I know logic and reasoning skills cant be learnt but at least try it and stop wasting everyones time with your stupidity.... With that being said Webb is a hell of an athlete and interesting character I hope he runs fast enough to make you arguement logical, but how about you stop basing things on gut feeling?

Although it's great to see Webb running so well many of you need a reality check. In all fairness Webb is not in Bekele's league. If Bekele wanted to give up 5km & 10km for shorter distances I have no doubt he would be capable of around 3.28. Bekele's kick is insane & would eat Webb alive, and thats the bottom line, 'cause stone cold said so.

Reality Calling wrote:

There's the first error of youre logic is in the first of youre assumption that Bekele is gonna let the race stay at 1320 pace.

I don't think Bekele would allow a 13:20 5K either. But I'm just saying "if" and going by the thread title. If Webb can outkick Lagat once, then he'd have a shot at outkicking Bekele in a slow 5K.

As I've said, he's not there yet. But it's not absurd to imagine that he could be soon. Remember, it wasn't until 2003 that Bekele first went under 13:13 over 5000m (his main event at the time). Then he dropped 36 seconds off that time in two seasons to become what he is today.

I think we all agree that Webb is poised to make a solid improvement this year in the 1500/mile. And there should be extra room for improvement in an event that he runs as seldom as the 5000, especially after showing that his strength is excellent right now.

Regardless of whether the impossible is possible, it's safe to say that we're all on the edge of our seats wondering what heights he'll soar to this season.

Short answer: no. But, so what? How many in the world right now COULD do this?