I feel pretty confidently that Sam Gilman is one of those that he hopes to pull under 13:00. Sam needs the standard and highly doubt he would be traveling to Boston to serve as a pacer. There are very few opportunities to achieve the 5k standard this year and this is the best chance. I don’t think we are going to see too many guys make the 13:01 mark this year. If I’m not mistaken the only American with this standard is Graham Blanks. Christian Noble is probably a pacer in this race.
I think you're probably right, but I'll point out that while there may not be many opportunities to get the 5k standard this year, if you're Grant Fisher's training partner and he owes you a pacing job, you'll be able to choose any meet any time, and get 5000m of perfect pacing.
Mantz is in fantastic shape, he ran like 45s faster than Ritz in the half, and Ritz ran a 12:56 5k. I don't know if that means he's ready for a 12:50 5k, but fwiw, Ritz ran it a year after finishing 9th in 2:11:59 at the Olympics (Mantz was 8th in 2:08:12), and 2 months after his 12:56, Ritz ran 60:00 (Mantz just ran 59:17). He's a frontrunner, so he'd probably be the perfect pacer for this, but with his fitness, he might be ready to throw down a nasty time.
What is Mantz PR in the 3,000 m
His indoor 3,000 m PR is 7:41. His indoor 5,000 m PR is 13:10. Both done in 2022.
He has been training for the half marathon and marathon.
Pacing needs to be even paced laps. Mantz would have to PR and do that at an even pace to be effective as a pacer. That is questionable.
Grant needs a guy who can run 7:38 - 7:39 (evenly paced laps).
Thank GOD he's full sending it and not doing the annoying "go out at 12:55-13:00 pace and try to run 12:40 in the last 2k. If his pacing entourage can get him to ~2.8-3k then this could be pretty crazy
Thought Grant would go out in 62s thru 3000 then negative split down to a 12:50 or under. Which is what he did last year, running 12:51.84, just missing Woody's 12:51.61 AR.
Pretty clear now Grant believes he is in the best time trial shape of his life and has reconsidered his original AR goal following Millrose.
Consider the following:
Grant's 7:22.91 indoor 3000 WR is approx 5.5 seconds slower than JI's 7:17.55 outdoor 3000 WR. Thus, seems reasonable to assume the indoor 5000 WR should be 9-10 seconds slower than Cheptegei's 12:35.36. Meaning, around 12:44 - 12:45.
However, Bekele's 12:49.60 is the current indoor 5000 WR. Comparatively soft, likely due to the fact the indoor 5000 is rarely, if every, raced outside the US. Given how close Grant and Woody have come to Bekele's time in recent years, pretty clear his WR is living on borrowed time.
But 12:42??!! And publicly state it's your goal two days out? That must be the biggest flex ever.
Given all this new info, believe a prior poster is correct in believing Gressier is the likely primary pacer, already having achieved his 13:01 Tokyo Q. He is probably the only one in the field who could tow Grant through 3000 in around 7:37.
Also, note that every t&f outdoor record is faster than its equivalent indoor record. Indicating indoor tracks are, almost certainly, not faster than outdoor 400 ovals for the world's best athletes. These select athletes simply have better fitness several months later in summertime.
So, if Grant does achieve his low-12:40s goal, an outdoor WR attempt at some point -- probably in 2026 -- will likely be in the cards.
Anticipating late Friday afternoon more than ever.
Based on the new info, I’m going to revise my prediction to 12:44 and change.
His indoor 3,000 m PR is 7:41. His indoor 5,000 m PR is 13:10. Both done in 2022.
He has been training for the half marathon and marathon.
Pacing needs to be even paced laps. Mantz would have to PR and do that at an even pace to be effective as a pacer. That is questionable.
Grant needs a guy who can run 7:38 - 7:39 (evenly paced laps).
Even-splitting is ideal running as it is. Last year Grant only got 2,000 of pacing. I believe Mantz could improve on that, though 3K might be too far... If he gives him an extra 400-800m from last year, though, that would be quite a help.
His indoor 3,000 m PR is 7:41. His indoor 5,000 m PR is 13:10. Both done in 2022.
He has been training for the half marathon and marathon.
Pacing needs to be even paced laps. Mantz would have to PR and do that at an even pace to be effective as a pacer. That is questionable.
Grant needs a guy who can run 7:38 - 7:39 (evenly paced laps).
ya his PRs are way slower, and he's been training for the half and full. That's why I said I'm not sure. Definitely questionable. But Dathan was coming off an Olympic year where he ran the marathon, and he ran 60:00 for the half 2 months after his 12:56 5k. And Ritz had a lifetime 3k best of 7:39 (only 2s faster than Mantz), and before his 12:56, his 5k pb was 13:16 (6s slower than Mantz).
And for the record, Mantz ran a 61:40 half in NY a month after his 7:41/13:10 pbs. He's cut 2.5 mins off that half time, I'd be a bit surprised if he wasn't at least close to 13:00 now.
Grant Fisher is in pr shape and just ran 7:22. Aregawi ran 7:21 and has run 12:40. Daniel Komen ran two seconds faster outdoors at 3k and ran 12:39-40 5000m but he was also a 3:29 1500m runner. Grant as a 3:33 guy who just won bronze in the 10000m should have a reduced fatigue rate as the distances go up. He's run 12:51 indoors but he's going to crush that. He can run 12:42. The question is just how quick the pacing will be, because there's only so far he can ramp it up if the pacers lead him out in 7:50. 7:37 is 12:42 pace. Let's see if they can get him to 3k in low 7:40s, then low 12:40s become possible.
There will be some traffic and he might missed a Hocker equivalent for the final laps which might hurt his time slightly.
When people are in top fitness, they generally have similar high quality times when they race over a short time period. Should be pretty close to his converted 7'22" for 3000m(i).
There will be some traffic and he might missed a Hocker equivalent for the final laps which might hurt his time slightly.
When people are in top fitness, they generally have similar high quality times when they race over a short time period. Should be pretty close to his converted 7'22" for 3000m(i).
....
WoW that's an astounding 8 plus seconds faster than Kenenisa's WR. I don't think the pace will be that fast or last long enough to go sub 12:44 but hopefully I'm wrong. If the pace goes out on target pace the field will string out considerably after 1600m and he will have traffic to navigate the rest of the way. Best case scenario 12:47.65 WR now I factored in the traffic.