This is how hard it is to catch epo use. AIU knew from his biological passport he was doping, but still couldn’t catch him with epo in his system. This is why all the steroid positives. Way easier to catch.
Forget the sad stories about being out of shape or drinking. He was doping all along. You don’t hit WR shape over night. Even with the best doping.
Before that, it was rather rare but did happen, e.g. Jeptoo and Sumgong and Kiprop between 2014 and 2017. But then, there was no AIU pre 2017 catching Kenyans.
And seeing how long it took Rhonex Kipruto to get banned, there are probably many others who are on the doping radar due to a couple abnormalities, since he had some going back to 2018 and wasn't immediately banned. And then many others who are doping further out from competition so they can train harder, and then they are the smarter ones who stop the last couple weeks before their race. A lot of Kipruto's tests were in-competition tests. He had 33 total valid tests, over half were from competition drug tests. So if you're someone who only races your 2 marathon majors per year and maybe one other race, you can dope several times in the off season and probably not get caught. He got caught because he did it multiple times soon before a race where he should have known he'd be tested, and he still got away with it for a long time.
Where is Renato with EPO doesn't work on Kenyans? lol
And his team is trying to come up with excuses of genetics, timing of tests, etc. (of course these are all possible but come on).
Side topic on the "coaching hero of LRC" Renato Canova. Guys, sigh, when are people going to collectively realize this guy is completely utterly full of sh-t? Seriously? He is no different to Rosa or Demadonna who are two of the most notorious agents in history when it comes to their use of doped Africans - and Canova is just the coaching conduit.
I mean he came on this site years ago posting fantastic schedules of his Kenyans in his broken English and that was enough for the goo-goo eyes to come out and overlook what was right in front of our eyes. And as you said, hes clever and manipulative enough to con people with narratives like "EPO works differently from person to person" - which of course isn't factually incorrect - he just paints it up like a modern Botticelli in a way that suggests it's Kenyans at the bottom of the list so "why would they"? My god.
Well here is why - because they can. They can get away with it. And contrary to what he says it works collectively just as well with the Kenyans as it does with anyone else.
Me too. But we do know that his ABP has HGB values of 14.8 - 17.9 g/dl, and ret-% of 0.78 - 2.32.
The 14.8 could be natural, or after withdrawal of blood. If the former, he is a doper because then he can't get up to 17.9 (a 21% increase) naturally; if the latter, he is a doper because he withdrew blood (and might have a natural 16 g/dl and doped it up by 12% - some of that maybe from extra altitude).
Also he blames alcohol for his numbers, not a naturally high HGB. The drug cheat apologists here didn't even bother to check the facts.
one can most certainly get a natural increase like that. it's always coupled with an analogous reticulocyte count (think young red blood cells), however. honestly, a 3g increase on hgb is fairly commonplace after a 12 week altitude camp.
What many people don't know is that the mindset of Kenyans is completely different from how the majority of elite world class runners think. It's an "all or nothing" mentality. Many don't enjoy the sport and view it as a way to get rich and be famous. They literally run themselves into the ground until they either break or get lazy and retire. The ONLY way to deter the doping (you'll always have someone trying to beat the system), is by instituting strict and long-term consequences. I like the 6-year ban, it's long enough to put a dent in their career yet not so long as to ruin it. I personally feel that ANY doping violation like this deserves a lifetime ban.
Remember...you ain't cheating until you get caught, and when you do, you should be DONE for life.
Me too. But we do know that his ABP has HGB values of 14.8 - 17.9 g/dl, and ret-% of 0.78 - 2.32.
The 14.8 could be natural, or after withdrawal of blood. If the former, he is a doper because then he can't get up to 17.9 (a 21% increase) naturally; if the latter, he is a doper because he withdrew blood (and might have a natural 16 g/dl and doped it up by 12% - some of that maybe from extra altitude).
Also he blames alcohol for his numbers, not a naturally high HGB. The drug cheat apologists here didn't even bother to check the facts.
It looks it's in the 46 - 47 range (Hct). Sample #1 taken in July, 2018, showed a 15.8 Hgb (47 Hct) with a corresponding normal Off-score of 102.4.
If you look at the graph, his upper & lower threshold levels were set on that initial Hgb number. You see long periods of time where his Hgb remains stable in the 15.1 to 15.8 range with corresponding normal Off-scores (there's a paper that looked at Hct values of Kenyan runners living & training at altitude which showed around 45 - 46 Hct baseline levels).
Sample #2, taken in Sept, 2018 - six (6) days before a competition - was flagged at 17.8 Hgb (~53 Hct) with a correspondingly high Off-score of 125.4 (99% specificity - less than 1 out of 100 undoped).
The anti-doping experts noted that these numbers showed characteristics of "discontinued use of an ESA" before competition.
They noted there were other spikes in Hgb & Off-scores that coincided with the athlete's major sporting competitions.
Furthermore, they concluded "The flagged hematological abnormalities are not compatible with normal physiology, altitude or intense excercise."
Absolutely fantastic news. Is he going to give his prize money back? Will his coaches and managers have to give back any money as they were also making a living of his cheating?
Good point. They could and should deny his coaches/agent any money they make from the sport until they pay it back. If he DOES come back deny his any money until he pays it back.
Hopefully the first punishment will help deter coaches and agents from promoting use in their athletes.
one can most certainly get a natural increase like that. it's always coupled with an analogous reticulocyte count (think young red blood cells), however. honestly, a 3g increase on hgb is fairly commonplace after a 12 week altitude camp.
Where is that coming from? We were happy when we got a 6 - 8% increase. 3 g/dl? 20%? Source?
Here are the HGB ranges (in g/dl) of banned blood dopers, i.e. including (blood withdrawal +) altitude + blood infusions or EPO, mostly over 1 - 2 years:
Ultimately if he goes to CAS it will get interesting. They might accept his alcohol study and find some of the irregularities with his health as more compelling. Some of the ABP flags have some caveats they’ll take more seriously. I still think he’ll lose because these cases are hard to win and the flags are hard to definitively say are due to him being an outlier. It’s got a better shot than Shelby but that’s not saying much.
Nah, one clear ABP flag is enough for a ban. But, he may succeed in getting his ban reduced to the normal 4 years, and the DQ time period shortened, so he can keep some wins maybe.
I am more interested in the Jeruto case, who got off claiming it was (undiagnosed and unsymptomatic) Covid, although 3 of the 4 experts argued against it. I see that's in front of CAS now.
one can most certainly get a natural increase like that. it's always coupled with an analogous reticulocyte count (think young red blood cells), however. honestly, a 3g increase on hgb is fairly commonplace after a 12 week altitude camp.
Where is that coming from? We were happy when we got a 6 - 8% increase. 3 g/dl? 20%? Source?
Here are the HGB ranges (in g/dl) of banned blood dopers, i.e. including (blood withdrawal +) altitude + blood infusions or EPO, mostly over 1 - 2 years:
You notice that the whole range is typically 2 - 3 g/dl. Hard to believe that one can get 3 from altitude alone.
Can you provide the HGB ranges of athletes that haven’t tested positive? I’d assume there’s some variation.
”Normal” HgB levels for males go up to 17.5, just for the average Joe, so his raw values aren’t crazy. Which is crazy to me. How do the absolute best athletes in the word, living at altitude, training like crazy, essentially just stay in upper range of normal even in peak shape right before a competition?
Reading the report, I’m just on the first retort and the expert’s reasoning doesn’t make sense to me. For example, sample 2 was taken a week after he ended really hard training. So from sample 1, he trained hard, so logically his HgB increased. Then, since he was tapering for a week he had less stimulus so his RET % went down but the HgB hadn’t gone down much yet. Training is a stimulus to increase ret %. And HgB doesn’t dramatically drop within a week so I don’t get how the experts are so dismissive of this. That’s literally part of the reason athletes taper. An elite athlete going from 15.8 to 17.8 with 7 weeks of training seems plausible. Also, his ret% on sample 2 was .78 compared to .86 from 7 weeks earlier. So it seems reasonable he was training low to moderate before July 9th (Sample 1), so his stimulus or RET % was moderate (.86). Then he trained really hard (as he said) and HGb rose as a result. Then he started tapering, so Hgb hadn’t dropped yet but training stimulus was lower, so RET% was lower.
Scientists of LetsRun, what am I missing here? The experts completely dismiss it right away. At the very least, it seems mildy plausible. Not saying he didn’t dope, I’m just trying to understand the logic.
Can you provide the HGB ranges of athletes that haven’t tested positive? I’d assume there’s some variation.
”Normal” HgB levels for males go up to 17.5, just for the average Joe, so his raw values aren’t crazy. Which is crazy to me. How do the absolute best athletes in the word, living at altitude, training like crazy, essentially just stay in upper range of normal even in peak shape right before a competition?
Reading the report, I’m just on the first retort and the expert’s reasoning doesn’t make sense to me. For example, sample 2 was taken a week after he ended really hard training. So from sample 1, he trained hard, so logically his HgB increased. Then, since he was tapering for a week he had less stimulus so his RET % went down but the HgB hadn’t gone down much yet. Training is a stimulus to increase ret %. And HgB doesn’t dramatically drop within a week so I don’t get how the experts are so dismissive of this. That’s literally part of the reason athletes taper. An elite athlete going from 15.8 to 17.8 with 7 weeks of training seems plausible. Also, his ret% on sample 2 was .78 compared to .86 from 7 weeks earlier. So it seems reasonable he was training low to moderate before July 9th (Sample 1), so his stimulus or RET % was moderate (.86). Then he trained really hard (as he said) and HGb rose as a result. Then he started tapering, so Hgb hadn’t dropped yet but training stimulus was lower, so RET% was lower.
Scientists of LetsRun, what am I missing here? The experts completely dismiss it right away. At the very least, it seems mildy plausible. Not saying he didn’t dope, I’m just trying to understand the logic.
Those are my thoughts too. And if his HgB is being manipulated to such a fine degree, then who is his mysterious Doctor?
Can you provide the HGB ranges of athletes that haven’t tested positive? I’d assume there’s some variation.
”Normal” HgB levels for males go up to 17.5, just for the average Joe, so his raw values aren’t crazy. Which is crazy to me. How do the absolute best athletes in the word, living at altitude, training like crazy, essentially just stay in upper range of normal even in peak shape right before a competition?
Reading the report, I’m just on the first retort and the expert’s reasoning doesn’t make sense to me. For example, sample 2 was taken a week after he ended really hard training. So from sample 1, he trained hard, so logically his HgB increased. Then, since he was tapering for a week he had less stimulus so his RET % went down but the HgB hadn’t gone down much yet. Training is a stimulus to increase ret %. And HgB doesn’t dramatically drop within a week so I don’t get how the experts are so dismissive of this. That’s literally part of the reason athletes taper. An elite athlete going from 15.8 to 17.8 with 7 weeks of training seems plausible. Also, his ret% on sample 2 was .78 compared to .86 from 7 weeks earlier. So it seems reasonable he was training low to moderate before July 9th (Sample 1), so his stimulus or RET % was moderate (.86). Then he trained really hard (as he said) and HGb rose as a result. Then he started tapering, so Hgb hadn’t dropped yet but training stimulus was lower, so RET% was lower.
Scientists of LetsRun, what am I missing here? The experts completely dismiss it right away. At the very least, it seems mildy plausible. Not saying he didn’t dope, I’m just trying to understand the logic.
Those are my thoughts too. And if his HgB is being manipulated to such a fine degree, then who is his mysterious Doctor?
When you for sure have the presence of an exogenous banned substance it’s one thing. Because even if it wasn’t intentional, you technically broke the rules. But the ABP things are literally just guessing. It’s kind of arrogant actually to think we have the human body so figured out that we can determine these things without even knowing all the factors such as day to day training, diet, supplements, genetic factors, alcohol, and factors we aren’t even aware of. Asking to recall these things 5 years later isn’t “knowing the factor”. Idk, the last ABP case I think the guy had HgB values up to like 22 or something along with the variations. But this case seems far less conclusive.