Maybe I'm being too harsh here, but I'm not a big fan of predictions like this one. It feels like the reason you're making this prediction is so you get lots of credit if it comes true, not because you necessarily believe it.
Fisher isn't some unknown; he's been one of the best 10k runners in the world for a couple years now. He's certainly not the favorite considering Cheptegei, Barega, Aregawi, Kiplimo, etc. But since Fisher is American, he gets more attention than those guys, and so you'll get more credit if he wins than if say Daniel Ebenyo does.
A more interesting post might have laid out why you think Fisher is looking particularly good this year. Personally, I would put the chance of him winning somewhere between 1% and 10%, and I bet most people here have a similar range. Why am I wrong? If you can convince me it should be higher than 10%, I'll give you credit if the prediction pans out. (e.g. in 2016: "Centro has been 2nd and 3rd and he just won World Indoors, so don't count him out even though he was 8th last year")
Alternatively, you could post about a less popular runner we've all overlooked. e.g. Bernard Kibet, Nicolas Kimeli. Why will Jacob Krop or Haile Bekele move up and dominate? Or do you think the race will go super slow for some reason and open things up for a real dark horse (e.g. Kincaid!)
Otherwise, taking the best American runner and predicting him to win without any other commentary lacks some punch.
I agree with you!! O started this thread, lazily, wondering if there would be much response. Happily, there are many thoughtful replies, for/against me.
September/7:25 started me on this path. Fisher went into that race concentrating on 3rd-4th due to his less than stellar buildup. Could he have won in 7:22 given a great buildup?
26:33 is effing fast, and that was how long ago?
Fisher is a very smart guy!! He will analyze his strengths/weaknesses, and figure out ways to move forward.
Grant Fisher will not accidentally obtain Olympic gold. Too much can go wrong sitting in the catbird seat until 150m to go waiting for something to open along the rail. Grant Fisher will have to attempt to take control of the race between 1100m to go & 900m to go, take the lead, race on inside half of lane 1 and make others work to pass.
I think as far as “OMFG” black-page US distance moments go, it’s fairly likely. He won’t be the favorite but enough people can envision him medaling that winning it all isn’t that far fetched. He gets into 12:45/26:30 shape which we basically know is possible, closes in 53-high in a ~27:00 race and nobody else runs superbly well and who knows?
exactly 53 finish with his A game aerobic.
if Fisher runs 331 or 332 in the 1500, then he's a favorite,
I remember when I said on the boards that Rupp was a favorite to medal and possibly win and I got ripped. It was clear in hindsight.
Same with Fisher today. He’s beaten all the Africans you guys say should be put in front of him. He is one of several gold medal favorites. At 26:33 and within a second of winning in the recent past, to think otherwise is just not thinking clearly.
I think as far as “OMFG” black-page US distance moments go, it’s fairly likely. He won’t be the favorite but enough people can envision him medaling that winning it all isn’t that far fetched. He gets into 12:45/26:30 shape which we basically know is possible, closes in 53-high in a ~27:00 race and nobody else runs superbly well and who knows?
exactly 53 finish with his A game aerobic.
if Fisher runs 331 or 332 in the 1500, then he's a favorite,
thats a long way from 26:52 with a 56 high close. 55 maybe more realistic in a race that is 27 or faster?
Kenny B ran a 54.9 in his 26:49 in Paris 2003. anybody else run that fast in a sub 27?
This post was edited 12 minutes after it was posted.
No. He can’t out kick Cheptegei or Barega, and guys like Kiplimo/Aregawi who don’t kick as well have better endurance. He could medal, but win is very unlikely.
Kiplimo has outkicked Jakob when Jakob didn't have an excuse ready.
He gets into 12:45/26:30 shape which we basically know is possible, closes in 53-high in a ~27:00 race and nobody else runs superbly well and who knows?
People focus on the last lap but a lot of time they are kicking at 1k. You run a 56 and follow it up with a 55, there is a different stress than trying to finish in 52.
There are going to be a half dozen guys in roughly the same shape. He has a decent chance but the odds are against it.
This is what I was thinking. It's one thing to run the last lap in 53-54 but quite another when the previous 2 laps were 56's and not 63's or 64's.
Kenny B ran a 54.9 in his 26:49 in Paris 2003. anybody else run that fast in a sub 27?
I’m sure the answer is yes. What makes that 54.9 you mention truly amazing is that the second 5k split was sub-13; I think a number of the top guys can run 53-54 to break 27 in a race that’s gone at a steady 27-low pace until the last 400. Much tougher in a championship race where the weather is often hot and there’s typically a wind-up preceding the bell, though.
Not sub-27, but Farah closed in 54.15 in a 27:01 at the 2015 WCs in Beijing. Jeilan closed in ~53 flat (maybe just under even?) in a 27:13 race in Daegu 2011. I think Farah closed pretty quick in his 26:46 PR at the 2011 Pre Classic IIRC.
But yeah, 53-high in a 27:00 is likely more than will be needed to win: good news for Grant Fisher.
Yes you most definitely are. Not that he isn't very high amongst the elite so therefore has that longshot chance. But winning the gold medal is indeed quite a longshot.
I remember when I said on the boards that Rupp was a favorite to medal and possibly win and I got ripped. It was clear in hindsight.
Same with Fisher today. He’s beaten all the Africans you guys say should be put in front of him. He is one of several gold medal favorites. At 26:33 and within a second of winning in the recent past, to think otherwise is just not thinking clearly.
We talked about this on the podcast yesterday at length.
One thing I meant to say, "This is CRAZY (And a testament to Fisher and the US depth I guess), we are debating if a man WHO HAS NEVER WON A US 10,000 title is going to win the Olympic gold medal?"
Seriously?
Answer is no.
Now that being said, could it happen? Yes. Rupp was nowhere near a medal before 2012 then he was close to gold. Centrowitz had never sniffed a Diamond League win on the circuit but won Olympic gold in 2016.
Fisher has a much better shot of winning WC gold in 2025 when the A+ talents from Uganda might leave for the marathon. Fisher is 1-5 again Cheptegei and 0-4 against Kiplimo in his life. Other than them, he's got decent head to head records against most of the top guys. He's 4-4 against Aregawi, 4-5 against Barega, 4-3 vs Kejelcha and 4-0 against Ebenyo who won WC silver this year. So there are basically two guys he never beats and then it's a coin toss against 3 or 4 others. Odds are low.
I think as far as “OMFG” black-page US distance moments go, it’s fairly likely. He won’t be the favorite but enough people can envision him medaling that winning it all isn’t that far fetched. He gets into 12:45/26:30 shape which we basically know is possible, closes in 53-high in a ~27:00 race and nobody else runs superbly well and who knows?
exactly 53 finish with his A game aerobic.
if Fisher runs 331 or 332 in the 1500, then he's a favorite,
But he's already a 7:25 guy in a race that he wasn't trying to win!! 7:25 is Geb/Kenny territory, right?
I envision 3rd 4th or 5th. All about positioning. He doesn't have that extra gear, explosive speed of the big kickers. I envision him more catching a guy or two in the last 50m because they went for the gold like Prefontaine did in 72. Fisher will be more like Ian Stewart who snuck in for the bronze
Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win a LetsRun t-shirt.Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win one of 10 LetsRun t-shirts.