The kind of person who would offer up a bet like this is not the kind of person I would trust with the selection of a "random" person. Squid game/Hunger Games vibes. They want to see a death, not a fair race.
I'm in 4:3x shape right now, this would be a very easy yes. 1 million isn't so much money, but it would put me on track to buy a house, which I probably won't be able to do as long as my parents are alive. And the odds of me losing are so remote that it's functionally the same as the chance of getting hit by a car on a random day, or getting stabbed in a mugging, etc.
I think the number is closer to 10,000, but you’re within an order of magnitude. Either way, your odds of losing at this exercise are far lower than your risk of dying in an automobile accident every year, and I assume most of the people who scoff at this exercise do that in order to earn a living and participate in society (for a far smaller payoff). The expected value of this exercise is very high.
There are 23k high schools in the US. You really think that most of them don’t have a single sub 5 miler? Even the sucky small HS in my area always had a couple of kids running 4:50s. Add in middle schoolers, college kids, athletes who never ran a mile(I.e soccer team), adult runners and so on and I would expect the number to be much higher. 5:00 was right around where talent thinned out quickly. My school had a dozen kids who could run sub 5. 3 ran sub 4:40. 1 was sub 4:30.
You are still going to end up with a smallish number and human brains suck at telling the difference between say 1:500 and 1:10k. We call both of them rare
Last year, in Colorado, 580 kids broke 5 for the 1600. In Wyoming, it was about 100. The average state probably has closer to 300-400. With fifty states, that means 6,000-ish hs kids break 5. Maybe that's closer to 8,000.
But those are their PRs. In January, most HS kids who will break 5 might struggle to run sub-5:20. On an average day, probably 3-4000 hs kids are capable of running sub-5. Add to that 1000 college athletes, 500 pros, and 6000-8000 hard-working hobby joggers, and that sounds about right to me.
But even if I'm off by x2 or x3 on that calculation, you're still more likely to die from daily commuting than doing this exercise.
Don’t need a million dollars waiting for me. If some random American is chasing me or trying to get to someone I care about, I will get there first. I may not be in the shape I once was but I remember how to hurt and I could dip into that pain locker with those stakes on the line.
There are 23k high schools in the US. You really think that most of them don’t have a single sub 5 miler? Even the sucky small HS in my area always had a couple of kids running 4:50s. Add in middle schoolers, college kids, athletes who never ran a mile(I.e soccer team), adult runners and so on and I would expect the number to be much higher. 5:00 was right around where talent thinned out quickly. My school had a dozen kids who could run sub 5. 3 ran sub 4:40. 1 was sub 4:30.
You are still going to end up with a smallish number and human brains suck at telling the difference between say 1:500 and 1:10k. We call both of them rare
Last year, in Colorado, 580 kids broke 5 for the 1600. In Wyoming, it was about 100. The average state probably has closer to 300-400. With fifty states, that means 6,000-ish hs kids break 5. Maybe that's closer to 8,000.
But those are their PRs. In January, most HS kids who will break 5 might struggle to run sub-5:20. On an average day, probably 3-4000 hs kids are capable of running sub-5. Add to that 1000 college athletes, 500 pros, and 6000-8000 hard-working hobby joggers, and that sounds about right to me.
But even if I'm off by x2 or x3 on that calculation, you're still more likely to die from daily commuting than doing this exercise.
Got that wrong. The HS number is probably closer to 15k. So maybe this is more like 25k total in the US. Either way, still safer than driving!
Running UberNerd and NAUSUX, your quick and dirty calculation of risk is the right approach. The people who said "I'm faster than the average American, so I'll take that bet" are missing the point. Probably every one of us on this board is faster than the average American. We're runners - that's why we're here. The salient question is how likely are you to lose, and are you willing to accept those odds weighed against the benefit of winning?
The fact that the expected value is very high - nearly $1M - is only part of the equation. If somebody offered you a coin flip where you receive $1B if you win and death if you lose, the expected value is really high: $500M. But the high chance of losing and the dire consequences of losing would be unacceptable for most people.
In my case, I have 4 children to raise and am very death-averse, even more so than most people. Even my savings and the life insurance benefits my family would receive are not a substitute for an actual father. And $1M just isn't that much money. If the odds of losing are 1 in 15,000, I wouldn't take that bet.
First off, I'd say this is just a fun/stupid LRC hypothetical, so no harm of course. But I will say there's A LOT of people saying they'd do this that when it came down to it, would chicken out (also known as make the smart decision).
Meaning, you're standing on the track ready to run the mile. There's a table with $1M in cash sitting there, also a loaded 9mm with an executioner ready to fire if need be. Your friends and family are there ready to watch you either collect the money, or take a one tap to the back of the head with your frontal lobe scattered across the track.
You have one last chance to back out, not risk something stupid like a cramp or freak injury before your opponent is revealed and the race starts. Your mom is staring at you thinking this whole thing is ridiculous and can't believe she might see her child's life ended over something so stupid and trivial.
The RD asks one more time, do you want to do this?
All but one of you, who probably actually does need professional mental help, backs out because you're not an idiot.
Are you at least allowed to look at the person you are matched up against before you decide whether or not to race them? If it is a young lean dude then I wouldn't even take the chance. But just about anybody else I'd take the challenge.
A random american is selected, it could be anyone from your Gran to Grant Fisher. Whoever it is, you must race them in the mile on the track. If you beat them you get $1 million, if you lose however, you die.
Do you take the challenge?
I ran a 4:00.x a couple of weeks ago. So that obviously eliminates 50% of the population, and there are only ~150 other college age males faster than me. Then throw in ~500 (as a very, very high estimate) pros
If I could see the person I'd be racing against just before the gun goes off and I'd have a chance to pull out then, then yes.
$1 million earned means I could basically expect 50K-70K in interest income/year for the rest of my life. So basically I could be middle class without ever having to work.
On the other hand, death = infinite negative utility.
For this gamble to make sense, I'd have to be like sure I'd win at like a million to one odds. I value my life at a trillion dollars, it seems. (I think my odds of winning are more like 1000 to 1.)
At 60 I can run around a 5:20 mile. I think my odds would be pretty solid. There are posters on here where the odds would all but guarantee victory -- even at my relatively slower speed I think the odds of drawing someone I couldn't beat easily from the world population must be like 1 in a million, something like that? If the genie performed his magic random selection spell and Yared Nuguse materialized, I'd admit I've had a good life and still think it was worth the shot.
There are certainly worse ways to go than racing a world class runner.
I still wouldn't choose it. Selection bias. Unless there's a clause forcing everyone to do it, the only ones electing to do it would think they have a high probably to win it.
Plus what are the theoretical rules? does someone pull you into it immediately? who choose the random route? what if you get chosen a second time the second you finish your first mile?
The kind of person who would offer up a bet like this is not the kind of person I would trust with the selection of a "random" person. Squid game/Hunger Games vibes. They want to see a death, not a fair race.
The kind of person taking such a bet would reflect how desperate and miserable their lives are.
How many do you think? The guys guessing more like 25k are probably right. I admit to not googling "how many high schools are in the US" before posting.
First off, I'd say this is just a fun/stupid LRC hypothetical, so no harm of course. But I will say there's A LOT of people saying they'd do this that when it came down to it, would chicken out (also known as make the smart decision).
Meaning, you're standing on the track ready to run the mile. There's a table with $1M in cash sitting there, also a loaded 9mm with an executioner ready to fire if need be. Your friends and family are there ready to watch you either collect the money, or take a one tap to the back of the head with your frontal lobe scattered across the track.
You have one last chance to back out, not risk something stupid like a cramp or freak injury before your opponent is revealed and the race starts. Your mom is staring at you thinking this whole thing is ridiculous and can't believe she might see her child's life ended over something so stupid and trivial.
The RD asks one more time, do you want to do this?
All but one of you, who probably actually does need professional mental help, backs out because you're not an idiot.
Look up the actuarial tables for the average American vs the average American millionaire, then get back to me on what "the smart decision" is.