Is Addy Wiley track's next superstar? Can she set a world record in a few events?

There are too many examples of young female (even some male) runners who run incredible times but then dramatically fall off and stop competing at that level. It's very possible she will never run sub 4. Mary Cain ran her PRs at age 17 and was done running at a high level a few years later. Alexa Efraimson ran her PRs around age 18/19 and was done about five years later after slowly declining. Addy is 19 right now, no guarantee she keeps getting faster. Huge upside, but it's still more likely she does not get significantly faster than it is that she'll break American Records at the senior level let alone a world record.

Even more likely that women older than her have hit their peaks.

Why does everyone assume athletes will continue to improve on some linear timeline?

Sometimes runners (especially female) are exceptional at a young age then hit a wall or get injured or both. Mary Cain. Plenty of other examples too: Jim Ryun and German Fernanadez and Verzbikas come to mind…

To which Astro replied:

Fair enough.

My apologies.

I was wrong to call you either a troll or a twit. You are neither.

You are a master troll, playing a deep and long game I can only vaguely apprehend.

I will look forward to watching you work with a new, deeper appreciation of you skill.

No and no. Find better runners and takes.

About 50% of girls and women stall out or even regress. For some like Ping, it happened at 15. For some like Cain, it happened at 19. For some like Tuohy, it happened at 21. I assume that Wiley will improve another 2-3 years or so which will get her to world class. I don't predict global medals.

I must have missed when tuohy stalled out or regressed

If Haylom has a global rival it will almost certainly be another East African. She barely prevailed over a Kenyan in that U20 final last year. Wiley was in the same race and although she demonstrated huge guts they was a big pause on the screen before she arrived at the finish line, following two Ethiopians and two Kenyans.

Laura Muir never receives enough credit for breaking into the monopoly and being a consistent medal contender and winner. That territory is the upside for Wiley. Very unlikely she'll make it. Haylom's name surfaced last year. There will be others.

And don't forget that Diribe Welteji is barely beyond her 21st birthday and has already run 4th in a world championship 800 final and broken 3:57 at 1500.

Some caveats out of the way:

If her coaches truly are miracle workers and her performances are indeed not at all related to the shady dealings of her staff, there's an incredible future in store for her. So that necessary statement out of way...

She's young enough that we don't need to put her in a 1500 box and that it's entirely likely a 25-30 year old Wiley will be a different animal altogether at lower or higher distance. Consistently we've seen this with US female runners.

And even if this is where she lands (it would be ridiculous not to experiment in off years with other distances for development sake), it's as good a start to a 1500 runner career as we could hope for.

I just really hope she gets the lack of testing/guilty by association issues out of the way soon so we can jump on the bandwagon.

They removed all my brutal comments. We are looking at a complete sham.

You are always a step behind. She is 21. She will be 21 for a while.

You really are dumb. In your words "it [already] happened"

Can you name any US collegiate athletes that have been tested more than Wiley over the past year. Or even some that have been tested as many times as her?

Her coaches, whoever they actually are, aren’t magicians. She ran 4:45 for 1600 within a couple months of beginning her running career. And she started in track, not XC so that 4:45 should have been enough of a result to let people know she is and always was a massive talent.

I think she’ll go under 2:00 & 4:00 before next season is over.

Can you name one scientist who doesn't know that 90% of dopers test negative for their entire careers?