Yes. Look at other running records. Men didn't run 2:14 marathon till 1963, but first sub 4 mile was 9 years earlier. Women have already run 2:14 3 times, so sub 4 is definitely within reach at some point.
women excel more the longer it is imo. look at ultras
Just curious, but has any woman come through 800-m at 2:00 or less when running a 1500/mile? I know it isn't run all that often, but if the worlds record in the 1000-m is a "lean-at-the-finish" 2:28/29, maintaining that for another 600+ meters suggests that the female sub-4 mile is about 100 years in the future (assuming current mechanical/hormonal limitations).
Looking at the slow progression in record times, despite the high population growth rates in the last century, I think it would take some sort of weird combination of gene mutations for it to happen. The odds of that happening in our lifetimes are low but probably not zero. It would be awesome to see, though, like when Bolt demolished the sprint records.
Several minutes of the difference between Mary Keitany and Letesenbet Gidey's half marathon records fall to the shoes. The road shoes make a proven, major difference, maybe 2 minutes in a half marathon. The track shoes aren't as much of an advantage, but we should see 3:48 this year if they even make a 2 second difference in a 1500m.
I wanted to add that for purposes of demonstration, like in Kipchoge's 1:59:40/2:00:26, you might get a sub-4 women's mile by using male pacers. The lack of a female pacer to take women to a sub-3:50 so far is the key reason it has not happened. No female has gone at that pace for more than 800m in any of these attempts, to my knowledge.
A straight line, slightly downhill point-to-point course with huge tailwind and an army of male pacers could get it done.
Air resistance makes an inordinatly larger impact on running times the faster we run (wind resistance at 17mph versus 16.5mph makes a 2% difference if we assume wind resistance requires ~20% of one’s energy to overcome) and given that women have more endurance-prone physiology, and given the presence of good pacing and super shoes, why shouldn’t it be possible for a 1:52.xx or 1:53.0 woman to run sub-4?
we just need a fantastic opportunity to present itself
right now the record is 4:12 set in 2019. the fact that it hasn't budged in 4 years is not very encouraging.
though with training starting at younger ages and better equipment, maybe someone emerges in the next decade or two and at the very least busts 4:10.
that alone would be newsworthy.
Part of the problem is that the mile has become more and more of a novelty race. Middle distance athletes, especially of non US origin, rarely race the mile anymore. A better question is probably will a woman ever run a sub 3:42 1500m (approximate mile equivalent). Never say never but I’d say it’s a good 10-15 years off at least.
Touhy has yet to come anywhere close to 2:00---if it were to come close--more likely from some woman who can run 1:57 or faster --but that is the problem 2:03 or 2:04 realistically limits potential to 4:17. For Tuohy breaking 30 in the 10 K would be a good and realistic lifetime career achievement--but she is not really a miler.