Scheduled to run a marathon this upcoming weekend -I have been training for a sub 3:00 attempt all winter and feel like I am in very good shape to do it. nailed my 16 mile race effort tempo and hit my half marathon tune up race at 1:22.
however, the weather for my race Saturday is currently forcasted at morning low 58 high of 78 (likely 65+ by time I finish race). I haven't trained in any type of heat. I have not usually had success running in weather that hot. Obviously tough to predict weather, but if that forecast holds its likely a tough go for me to hit my goal. Do I risk it and still attempt, or bail on it and try to find another race in the 2-3 weekends that follow (April 22-May 6th time frame). I am tapered and ready to run- so pushing it back makes me nervous as well- want to time my fitness right to peak race day. just really want to give myself the best shot at this.
I honestly dk why LRC has such a visceral reaction to this. For amateur runners who aren't hopping in marathons for a paycheck, spending 6 months in a training block to get a bad day for your goal marathon sucks. OP thinks they're ready for sub-3. Without being able to get ready for those conditions, it's very likely that 3:05-3:10 will equate to a sub-3 effort on the day. Is anyone going to be satisfied at the end of their build-up in that scenario. It's so hard for amateurs to get weather right & dial it back on race day when they've trained for a specific time. So if someone goes out at sub-3 pace in those conditions they'll likely fall off of even 3:05-3:10. So many of us work so hard and tie a small piece of our identity to this stuff. I think it's more than reasonable to ask this question & to do the race or not.
I've run enough marathons in garbage conditions (hot & cold) that I don't know that I would want to waste an effort in my last few years when I'll be in PR territory. Running Boston a bunch in the 2010s, I have a lot of what-ifs from those years. I ran great in 2018 but put that effort anywhere else & I have a different marathon PB. Nobody cares that I even split to a solid time when people can have a slightly faster PB than me set in perfect conditions. It's not about that but you still want your shot at a good time too.
OP -- I think pushing it back is fine. If you're gonna race use something like the RunnersConnect temperature calculator to figure out an adjusted goal pace. Feel confident after the result that the effort was worth something better. The people telling you the weather isn't that bad aren't necessarily wrong but even a 5-10s adjustment/mile makes conditions a few minutes slower over 26.2. Any less than ideal weather impacts time when you're out there that long. & the adjustment might be too conservative since you won't be used to weather like that after training through the winter. It amazes me that people just trash this & say tough it out instead of talking through it.
Fair point but this weather does not seem anywhere near bad enough to change plans.
a.) its 3 weeks out, a lot can change in the forecast
b.) it's already going to be mid-april by the time of the race. i'm not a weatherman (yet) but it seems like a pretty big gamble to hope a different race will have lower than low/mid 60s temps during the race.
I'd personally go ahead and run but i don't know what the weather is typically like in OP's area so if you think may is gonna be significantly cooler I can see switching
Yeah I agree with all of that vegastrailrunner. If I were to make any change I would do it the day before the race when I know the weather for sure. High 50s/low 60s & low humidity wouldn't be terrible & you likely wouldn't get anything better than that a few weeks later. That might require a small pace adjustment but might be as good as it gets. Weather can change a lot in 3 weeks. If it's gonna be 70s and/or humid, I think there's a conversation to be had here. That's all I was saying in my initial post. A lot were so dismissive but nobody would be happy training for a time goal and then going into your goal marathon knowing that you have no shot at it. The marathon isn't like the 5k. You don't get tons & tons of attempts at it/you can't run one every other weekend. I think it's a valid question. You could always race if the weather is okay enough and then keep an eye on the weather for the next race.
When I cared about breaking three hours I would have a backup marathon lined up a week later (in the fall - I'd run Boston no matter what) and would make the call as late as the day before Race 1. Bailed on a hot Chicago to run a perfect Columbus for example in a good time and an AG win. For me that was the right decision because I suck in the heat and find it a miserable experience. Why do that to yourself? All the "suck it up" and "it's a race, same for everybody" comments bounced right off me.
Yeah I agree with all of that vegastrailrunner. If I were to make any change I would do it the day before the race when I know the weather for sure. High 50s/low 60s & low humidity wouldn't be terrible & you likely wouldn't get anything better than that a few weeks later. That might require a small pace adjustment but might be as good as it gets. Weather can change a lot in 3 weeks. If it's gonna be 70s and/or humid, I think there's a conversation to be had here. That's all I was saying in my initial post. A lot were so dismissive but nobody would be happy training for a time goal and then going into your goal marathon knowing that you have no shot at it. The marathon isn't like the 5k. You don't get tons & tons of attempts at it/you can't run one every other weekend. I think it's a valid question. You could always race if the weather is okay enough and then keep an eye on the weather for the next race.
I agree. To all those saying suck it up, that's not the point. This guy knows he can run 26 miles, the entire goal is to hit a certain time, and if you are standing at the starting line with temps in the 70's you just are not going to be able to hit that mark. Why waste the effort?
I'm completely for bagging this race if the weather is trash AND you have a back up within your training window. My issue with Spring marathons was that it seemed the weather went from 50's to 80's in a week. I never had good luck in the Spring races, the Fall and early Winter was a lot better for me.
To all those saying suck it up, that's not the point.
I guess at the end of the day you have to decide if you're marathoner or a cherry-picker. Personally I'd feel pretty empty knowing I met my goal because I was picky about which race to enter rather than my training and preparation, but to each their own.
That's about 10 degrees over optimum. You'll have to be vigilant about taking water on early. Your HM pr predicts a sub 3 hrs finish so not that long in the heat but not a crazy energy expenditure either.
Maybe back your pace off by 5 secs a mile for the first half. Wear a visor if the course doesn't have shade.
The number of days in the US that are between 40-50F, overcast, winds below 10 mph, and humidity 40-60 percent are vanishingly small. You have no guarantee that the weather for the next race will be cooler, calmer, or drier. Run the race-
I live in Cbus and have noticed this since I moved here in '14.
We get 2-3 weeks of spring and fall, sandwiched between 85-93'F summers and cold, long winters (although not snowy like CLE).
Scheduled to run a marathon this upcoming weekend -I have been training for a sub 3:00 attempt all winter and feel like I am in very good shape to do it. nailed my 16 mile race effort tempo and hit my half marathon tune up race at 1:22.
however, the weather for my race Saturday is currently forcasted at morning low 58 high of 78 (likely 65+ by time I finish race). I haven't trained in any type of heat. I have not usually had success running in weather that hot. Obviously tough to predict weather, but if that forecast holds its likely a tough go for me to hit my goal. Do I risk it and still attempt, or bail on it and try to find another race in the 2-3 weekends that follow (April 22-May 6th time frame). I am tapered and ready to run- so pushing it back makes me nervous as well- want to time my fitness right to peak race day. just really want to give myself the best shot at this.
I honestly dk why LRC has such a visceral reaction to this. For amateur runners who aren't hopping in marathons for a paycheck, spending 6 months in a training block to get a bad day for your goal marathon sucks. OP thinks they're ready for sub-3. Without being able to get ready for those conditions, it's very likely that 3:05-3:10 will equate to a sub-3 effort on the day. Is anyone going to be satisfied at the end of their build-up in that scenario. It's so hard for amateurs to get weather right & dial it back on race day when they've trained for a specific time. So if someone goes out at sub-3 pace in those conditions they'll likely fall off of even 3:05-3:10. So many of us work so hard and tie a small piece of our identity to this stuff. I think it's more than reasonable to ask this question & to do the race or not.
I've run enough marathons in garbage conditions (hot & cold) that I don't know that I would want to waste an effort in my last few years when I'll be in PR territory. Running Boston a bunch in the 2010s, I have a lot of what-ifs from those years. I ran great in 2018 but put that effort anywhere else & I have a different marathon PB. Nobody cares that I even split to a solid time when people can have a slightly faster PB than me set in perfect conditions. It's not about that but you still want your shot at a good time too.
OP -- I think pushing it back is fine. If you're gonna race use something like the RunnersConnect temperature calculator to figure out an adjusted goal pace. Feel confident after the result that the effort was worth something better. The people telling you the weather isn't that bad aren't necessarily wrong but even a 5-10s adjustment/mile makes conditions a few minutes slower over 26.2. Any less than ideal weather impacts time when you're out there that long. & the adjustment might be too conservative since you won't be used to weather like that after training through the winter. It amazes me that people just trash this & say tough it out instead of talking through it.
That's a good back half of the post. LRC has some validity about being tough in tough conditions but the internet can be full of people who are blunt and anonymous. It is what it is.
When I cared about breaking three hours I would have a backup marathon lined up a week later (in the fall - I'd run Boston no matter what) and would make the call as late as the day before Race 1. Bailed on a hot Chicago to run a perfect Columbus for example in a good time and an AG win. For me that was the right decision because I suck in the heat and find it a miserable experience. Why do that to yourself? All the "suck it up" and "it's a race, same for everybody" comments bounced right off me.
This is a good strategy. May do Akron, and have either Indy or Cbus as backups...even at higher costs, not as big of a concern now. Thank you!
To all those saying suck it up, that's not the point.
I guess at the end of the day you have to decide if you're marathoner or a cherry-picker. Personally I'd feel pretty empty knowing I met my goal because I was picky about which race to enter rather than my training and preparation, but to each their own.
I think a lot of it depends on the individual. Some people perform really poorly in the heat, especially if they're coming from a colder climate.
Spring marathons are tough. I thought I'd be safe running a late March marathon in Pennsylvania. A fast moving front came through and we got to experience all four seasons during the course of the marathon. One star. Would not recommend.
I'd probably run in OP's situation. He's already tapering. He's close enough to the race to have a fairly accurate forecast, and too far out to know what the weather will be like for a backup marathon. The forecast is not great, but also not terrible in terms of spring conditions. It could be a lot worse for his backup marathon.
To all those saying suck it up, that's not the point.
I guess at the end of the day you have to decide if you're marathoner or a cherry-picker. Personally I'd feel pretty empty knowing I met my goal because I was picky about which race to enter rather than my training and preparation, but to each their own.
That's a false choice. You can be "picky" about both your training and the race where you choose to let it fly. Or picky about your fall race but not about Boston, which I will do no matter what. 2007, 2012, 2018, I ran them all. I think I'm a "marathoner" even if you don't!
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