What super shoe mile time is the equivalent of a classic sub 4 mile?

I would say 358 low so 1.5 - 2.0

Do you want 10% better performance from a Volkswagen or a Ferrari?

The better runners will get more benefit from super shoes.

Nuguse sure looks good in the On spikes.

Yes, according to most here, both he and Lagat would run 3:21 and finish 6 or 7 seconds ahead of Jakob, Tim, and Jake, but most here still think they were clean.

The worst thing about super shoes is that it might make people forget how ridiculous the full throttle EPO times were.

this question is kinda flawed. The shoes allow a higher proportion of athletes to train optimally so the difference between the xth time from one year to the next is not reflective of the time difference between an athlete who can train optimally both before and after the supershoes (i.e. El Guerrouj wouldn't have run 3.21). The shoes might allow the athletes to run 1-2sec faster, but they all 50 runners on the crest on sub 4 to train with 90% consistency rather than 70% consistency.

Dragonfly's what don't have a carbon fiber plate?

I don't think there is any doubt really that those with more to gain are gaining more (even in percentage terms).

The question is, who is gaining more if the Volkswagen gains 10% and the Ferrari gains 1%?

Just look at the delta in Men's vs. Women's Marathon times.

This.

The shoes are not giving a flat percentage increase in efficiency across the board. Those with more to gain are going to gain more. Those who already have pretty dang good efficiency will see less gain, but nonetheless they will have some increase in efficiency.

To me, this principle would suggest that elites who are running insane times like Jakob, Fisher, Yared, etc. are still absolute beasts and should be given their due. They might gain a small amount from the shoes (like, say, 3:48/9 to 3:47), but the real difference is the 4:01 guy who now can run 3:56. Or the 4:30 guy who now can run 4:22.

I would definitely be open to science the suggests otherwise, though. Like I've said in a prior post, this theory is based on conversations with peers and coaches who speculate from experience.

The shoes appear to provide the same advantage as "full throttle EPO".

I guess mechanical cheating is acceptable and chemical cheating is unacceptable.

I ran 4:02.80 back in 2010. Is that worth sub 4 in the super shoes? Gotta be close...

I would say yes. that would be tough to live with.

Still a dang good time tho bro

But that hasn't happened. In the 800 last year, the best in the world were barely hitting 1:43. I guess the absolute best in the world, who were able to run 1:43 before super shoes, are all now 1:45 guys and slower. How amazing that this rapid drop off in 800 performance at the elite level coincided with the release of super shoes.

OP posits that the shoes provide an obvious advantage in the mile.

Two idiots can't disprove it so they introduce the 800m as proof that the shoes don't work for the mile.

This. There is so much garbage being posted here. 4-7 seconds across the board -- are you outside of your mind? So Kejelcha is a 3:40-3:43 miler at BU (he ran his WR in old spikes), and similarly Nuguse is only a 3:51-3:54 miler at Millrose (he ran his AR in "super" spikes). Also, to like half the posters here saying carbon or otherwise plated spikes are making this difference -- newsflash -- many of the old spikes had carbon/hard plastic plates too, so it's not (just) that!!!

Four minute mile = 240 seconds

1% improvement = 2.4 seconds = 3:57.6

2% improvement = 4.8 seconds = 3:55.2

3% improvement = 7.2 seconds = 3:52.8

Let's assume it takes approximately 700 (180 x 4 minutes = 720steps) steps to run a mile (maybe fewer depending on turnover at higher speeds) you will run those times if each step is now .34 - 1.02% more responsive with the new shoes.

Now don't you think a shoe that was purposely designed (and now copied by every major shoe company) to return as much energy as possible could get you 1% more responsive each step???

Now how do these shoes do it? Increase in turnover, increase in stride length, and decrease in fatigue.

It's more the new foam than the spike plate. Look up spikes from 5 years ago and then a pair of super spikes. It's immediately apparent the difference. Prior to super spikes, companies were mainly focused on weight. Thus the meager eva foam to reduced weight. I think Nike was starting to look into carbon fiber/pebax plates several years prior but then discovered the new foam. Combine that with the newer plate and things have taken off.

Athletes are running significantly faster. US top 100 men's and women's 10000m runners averaged 20 seconds faster than the previous fastest year ever in 2022. For some years it was 30 seconds. And there are a couple years (in the last 12 years) where the women average 40 seconds faster for a 10000m. 2021 and 2022 were the fastest years ever for US runners for all events 3000m - 10000m hands down, without question. It was laughable to even compare other years the times were that much better.

Perfect example is the steeple. In 2022, 19 US guys ran sub 8:30. Average going back to 2001 was about 7 with the most prior to 2022 (not counting 2021 of course) being 12. In case you're wondering, the number of US runners who ran sub 8:30 in 2021 was also 19.

For the World it is similar but not nearly as drastic. 2021 and 2022 are the fastest years ever for all world men's and women's events 3000m - 10000m except for one event - 10000m men where 2022 was the 3rd fastest year ever by a second. Why there is not as drastic an improvement as US I'm not sure. There could be a lot of reasons. But the shoes are working. Since the release of super shoes, WRs have been broken in the men's and women's 5000m and 10000m, men's an women's road 5k and 10k, men's and women's One-Hour, men's and women's Half-Marathon, men's Marathon, men's and women's 50k, and men's indoor 1500m... and a whole bunch of national/collegiate/age/whatever records. 16 World Records since 2020!

In short I think that for an national elite-level miler say, oh, 4:00-4:08, the shoes are worth around 3-4 seconds. Show me a sub 4:04 miler w/o super shoes and they are almost guaranteed a sub 4:00 with the shoes in a fast mile. The numbers we've been seeing prove it. The closer the runner gets to the WR (3:43) the less, I think, the shoes are worth. El G is pushing much harder than a 4:00 guy so he's not going to feel the effects of the shoes as much as a slower runner because he's already full redlined. I think El G is a sub 3:42 runner with the shoes, but not sub 3:41. But we'll never know. The flood gates are opened. We're never going back to older tech in shoes (sadly). Thanks nike - you've made Pre a practical nobody.

There haven't been all that many 6th years competing and most of the 5th years would have had 5th years anyway. The extra COVID runners in NCAA can't come close to accounting for the improvements in time.

The NCAA data is actually pretty clear. For a good-but-not-great NCAA runner, it's about 1 second per 400m for the mile, 3K, 5K. Take any point of comparison of this level of runner--100th best NCAA time, last outdoor regional qualifier, etc. That's what you get.

So, I think a 4:00 miler at BU last week was the same caliber athlete as a 4:04 miler at BU in 2019.

It's complicated by the fact that better testing in East Africa, and especially Kenya has almost certainly affected their times. Amos was busted. Three Kenyan World U20 800m champions have been busted. Who knows what one or two of them would have been running today if they had continued to get away with it - 1:39 for all we know.

Similarly with Jake Wightman. He has improved clearly in his pbs and his results. But how much has he really improved? How much of going from 3:33 to 3:29 is the super shoes and how much is his WC gold due to Kiprop, Manangoi, Makhdady getting busted, Tim not feeling able to juice like he may have been etc?

I mean you still had to run 3:58.55 to make NCAA indoors in 2018-2019. 3:55.89 last year. Currently 3:55.98 this year. That's not perfectly scientific but you're seeing 2+ seconds. I think anybody claiming over 2-3s is overshooting it. Yes, the shoes are fast. Tracks are fast. Fields are fast. Races are perfectly paced. Everyone travels to the same meet with the same fast shoes on the same fast tracks to race the same fast fields. Training is better than ever & people didn't get to race much during the pandemic. There's a belief in training/racing to crush this barrier. People chase round numbers. Is it as impressive as it was a decade or two ago? Maybe not. But not everybody responds to the shoes in the same way. Some people might not be gaining a ton of time. Others might be getting 2-3 seconds. Maybe 3:57-3:58 is the new number. Feels not it to start tracking that.