Both of you make valid points. Yes, Kessler has a great team who can take the gradual long-term developmental approach with him, and Hocker’s 2022 outdoor season was a concerning disappointment.
At the same time, what they’ve achieved thus far matters because it shows what they’re capable of. We know Hocker is capable of being a U.S. champion, Olympic finalist, and 3:31/13:08 guy because he’s done it. We don’t know yet if Kessler can reach that higher level.
All we can do is try to project, but that’s difficult to do with teenagers because so many teenage phenoms have failed to reach that higher level. Look at German Fernandez. At age 18, he ran a 3:55 indoor mile, 13:25 American junior record 5K, and won the NCAA championship in the 1500. The future looked bright for him, but now he’s retired at age 31 and he never ran a 5K faster than that 13:25 despite training with BTC. We just never know how teenagers will pan out. For that reason, I believe Hocker is the safer bet for future success because he has already proven he can compete at the highest level.
That said, I’m excited for both of them, and I hope they both make many national teams, run under 3:30, and win medals.
Hey at least you made some rational points here, but I'm still confused about how "what they have achieved thus far matters" and here's why.
First of all is the obvious, Hocker is nearly 27 months older than Kessler and his best season and achievements all happened at an age that Kessler hasn't even got to yet. So really we could do the same comparison with the Newbury Park kids and come to the conclusion that Hocker is better and thus has has a better future.
Secondly if we are going off the past and the recent past in particular we could look and simplistically say "well Hocker had an amazing season in 2021 but a terrible one in 2022 so he's trending down and conversely Kessler had an average season in 21 but a good season in 22 so he's trending up" and use that to come a conclusion.
But again, this thread isn't titled "If each runners career ended today whose was better - Hocker or Kessler" because that answer is obvious. This is a question of potential of which yes a facet is "what they've done so far" but also age, how they are trending season to season, who are their coaching and support team, environment and expectation - all of these combined.
You wrote a great post and I would actually love to hear your take on their potential with basis not just taking into account past results which is really a small element of this question.
Your view of Kessler and Hockers seasons don't seem aligned with reality. Hocker won 2 US indoor titles, ran 13:08, ran 3:50 twice and finished 5th at the Pre Classic right next to Tim C and Kipsang before getting a stress fracture that effectively ended his competitive season.
Kessler has strung together some decent races lately, but didnt make it out of the 1st round at USAs while healthy and hasn't come within 2 seconds of his PR.
How can you say Hocker had a terrible season and Kessler had a good one? They were both pretty average considering expectations, with a few bright spots for each to point to heading into next year.
Hey at least you made some rational points here, but I'm still confused about how "what they have achieved thus far matters" and here's why.
First of all is the obvious, Hocker is nearly 27 months older than Kessler and his best season and achievements all happened at an age that Kessler hasn't even got to yet. So really we could do the same comparison with the Newbury Park kids and come to the conclusion that Hocker is better and thus has has a better future.
Secondly if we are going off the past and the recent past in particular we could look and simplistically say "well Hocker had an amazing season in 2021 but a terrible one in 2022 so he's trending down and conversely Kessler had an average season in 21 but a good season in 22 so he's trending up" and use that to come a conclusion.
But again, this thread isn't titled "If each runners career ended today whose was better - Hocker or Kessler" because that answer is obvious. This is a question of potential of which yes a facet is "what they've done so far" but also age, how they are trending season to season, who are their coaching and support team, environment and expectation - all of these combined.
You wrote a great post and I would actually love to hear your take on their potential with basis not just taking into account past results which is really a small element of this question.
Your view of Kessler and Hockers seasons don't seem aligned with reality. Hocker won 2 US indoor titles, ran 13:08, ran 3:50 twice and finished 5th at the Pre Classic right next to Tim C and Kipsang before getting a stress fracture that effectively ended his competitive season.
Kessler has strung together some decent races lately, but didnt make it out of the 1st round at USAs while healthy and hasn't come within 2 seconds of his PR.
How can you say Hocker had a terrible season and Kessler had a good one? They were both pretty average considering expectations, with a few bright spots for each to point to heading into next year.
How can I say Hocker had a terrible season? Because that is totally relative and comparative.
Last year he won almost everything that mattered except the Olympic final where he still ran 3.31 and was 6th. This year he didn't make it out of the heats at trials and hasn't looked like breaking 3.35. The other night in Lucerne he was well beaten by a bunch of good dudes, but guys that given his ability and talent he should have no trouble handling. You really think that even counts as an average season? Average for Hocker should have at the least been making the team and in the mix in the semi finals at worlds as well as some performance approaching 3.33. Yes I know he ran 3.50 for the mile which is a good time but that is in a meet that really doesn't matter. He had a poor season and I bet he would own that too.
Kessler on the other hand has at least made real strides especially over 800m and his 1000m in Monaco was exceptional given its the first real time he's attempted that distance in a big pro meet. While he didn't a PR over 1500m he was a lot closer to it than Hocker. Also some perspective - we are talking about a 19 year old kid who isn't battle hardened through racing collegiately. Kessler has had a good season.
The big advantage Kessler has is being around and having Willis mentoring him. Willis knew how to build a career - I mean the guy had the greatest longevity in the history of middle distance running bar nobody. So I think Willis will help Kessler manage his workload and progression and sure, we haven't seen 3.30 yet or Olympic finals but the dude is only 19 years old for christs sake. Pretty good to have 1.46, 2.16 and 3.34 as a start point and a guy that understands maybe taking a little extra time to get to 3.30 is better long term than rushing to it, having that bright light and never being seen again (Andrew Wheating anyone?).
I'm a HUGE advocate of Hocker and he's incredible but this season is really worrisome. Wrote here before I wondered when his final collegiate season of running everything (including pointless 5000m races etc) would catch up with him and it was this season. Dude looked tired and running on fumes and the question will be do him and his coach a) recognise this and b) know how to remedy it. That seems like it's straight forwards but it's not that simple (especially for young, keen and motivated athletes) that basically need to tell themselves to back off for 6 months to get right. You can convince yourself that 6 months of backing off will be too many steps back to ever recover from when in reality it's not that difficult at all. What's difficult is trying to compete on an empty tank which is why the Olympic 6th placer couldn't make it out of round 1 at the trials and was running injured the whole season.
Both are great, both are incredibly talented. If you ask me today it's Kessler because I trust the team around him and need to see evidence of the same from Hockers camp which didn't appear to be there this last season.
Bernard Lagat ran 3:54 at age 40!! Willis ran 3:59, awesome but not in Lagats league. Otherwise I agree with your conclusion, Kessler may well have the better upside, especially as an 800/1500 guy.
Kessler on the other hand has at least made real strides especially over 800m and his 1000m in Monaco was exceptional given its the first real time he's attempted that distance in a big pro meet. While he didn't a PR over 1500m he was a lot closer to it than Hocker. Also some perspective - we are talking about a 19 year old kid who isn't battle hardened through racing collegiately. Kessler has had a good season.
This closing paragraph is one of the reasons why I give the edge to Hocker in predicting future greatness. Neither Kessler’s 800 nor his 1000 are objectively better performances than the 3:34 1500 he ran last year. It’s concerning that he hasn’t raised his level at age 19 while training professionally with such a great support system. Why has this whole year gone by without him producing a better mark than his 3:34 last year?
It’s also concerning that Kessler didn’t get the experience of racing collegiately. Both of the US men’s 1500 global medalists this past decade got valuable experience in the NCAA. Advantage Hocker.
Additionally, Kessler has not shown that he can do well in championship racing. Running fast in one-off races is very different than handling the rounds and competition of national and global championships. Hocker has proven he can do it. Advantage Hocker.
I understand you don’t put as much emphasis on achievements to date as I do, but I think it’s huge due to the unpredictability of teenagers’ future progression. There have been far too many sub-4 high schoolers who failed to thrive at the professional level. For every Grant Fisher, there are 5 Matthew Matons. It’s a crapshoot.
When predicting who will have the better future, I think it’s logical to take the guy who excelled at the professional level at age 20 over a teenager who set an impressive national age group record a year ago but hasn’t improved upon it, hasn’t gained NCAA experience, and has struggled with championship racing.
That said, I want to reiterate I like them both, and I am cautiously optimistic about both of their futures. I just think Hocker is a safer bet.
Kessler on the other hand has at least made real strides especially over 800m and his 1000m in Monaco was exceptional given its the first real time he's attempted that distance in a big pro meet. While he didn't a PR over 1500m he was a lot closer to it than Hocker. Also some perspective - we are talking about a 19 year old kid who isn't battle hardened through racing collegiately. Kessler has had a good season.
This closing paragraph is one of the reasons why I give the edge to Hocker in predicting future greatness. Neither Kessler’s 800 nor his 1000 are objectively better performances than the 3:34 1500 he ran last year. It’s concerning that he hasn’t raised his level at age 19 while training professionally with such a great support system. Why has this whole year gone by without him producing a better mark than his 3:34 last year?
It’s also concerning that Kessler didn’t get the experience of racing collegiately. Both of the US men’s 1500 global medalists this past decade got valuable experience in the NCAA. Advantage Hocker.
Additionally, Kessler has not shown that he can do well in championship racing. Running fast in one-off races is very different than handling the rounds and competition of national and global championships. Hocker has proven he can do it. Advantage Hocker.
I understand you don’t put as much emphasis on achievements to date as I do, but I think it’s huge due to the unpredictability of teenagers’ future progression. There have been far too many sub-4 high schoolers who failed to thrive at the professional level. For every Grant Fisher, there are 5 Matthew Matons. It’s a crapshoot.
When predicting who will have the better future, I think it’s logical to take the guy who excelled at the professional level at age 20 over a teenager who set an impressive national age group record a year ago but hasn’t improved upon it, hasn’t gained NCAA experience, and has struggled with championship racing.
That said, I want to reiterate I like them both, and I am cautiously optimistic about both of their futures. I just think Hocker is a safer bet.
Racing in College? Are you serious..two guys in a Decade? You are clearly one of the challenged , that do not get that Progress is rarely linear. Kessler's year this year is actually way more consistent and packed full of stuff than last year. Last year, he was "the flavor of that day" off one race, I told people on here, what was he more like? The 3:38-39 ish guy or THE 3:34.x guy..?look at all the other performances , running that once, was exactly what it was, it indicated HUGE talent. But the other really good marks for him was a four participant mile at Arkansas, running 3:57(and a big negative 8:39 two mile crushing Gavin Sherry), this year he ran that earlier, and people sh-t on it. Because they do not understand this at all.This year, 4 times sub 3:39.00 a couple of 3:36's in those, a 3:53 road mile, a 1:46.8(he is two months older than everybody's favorite Cade Flatt who ran in four Pro Type caliber races and ran what .4 faster) 800 and a 2:16.41 1000M, all with an increased training load and missing an entire month. There was nothing for him in college, really, and he is doing fine, he is 19 and a half. He gets to Train with the coach who took him from 4:08 1600 Once to 3:57 in one year, 8:39 two mile 1:47.8 relay split and 3:34.x , I would stick with this rather than dick around racing 24 year old, collegians now.
Racing in College? Are you serious..two guys in a Decade? You are clearly one of the challenged , that do not get that Progress is rarely linear. Kessler's year this year is actually way more consistent and packed full of stuff than last year. Last year, he was "the flavor of that day" off one race, I told people on here, what was he more like? The 3:38-39 ish guy or THE 3:34.x guy..?look at all the other performances , running that once, was exactly what it was, it indicated HUGE talent. But the other really good marks for him was a four participant mile at Arkansas, running 3:57(and a big negative 8:39 two mile crushing Gavin Sherry), this year he ran that earlier, and people sh-t on it. Because they do not understand this at all.This year, 4 times sub 3:39.00 a couple of 3:36's in those, a 3:53 road mile, a 1:46.8(he is two months older than everybody's favorite Cade Flatt who ran in four Pro Type caliber races and ran what .4 faster) 800 and a 2:16.41 1000M, all with an increased training load and missing an entire month. There was nothing for him in college, really, and he is doing fine, he is 19 and a half. He gets to Train with the coach who took him from 4:08 1600 Once to 3:57 in one year, 8:39 two mile 1:47.8 relay split and 3:34.x , I would stick with this rather than dick around racing 24 year old, collegians now.
Please note I’m not trying to be deny Kessler’s talent. I’m just nitpicking to try to answer the very challenging question of which young stud would I pick to have the better future. There really is no wrong answer here. There is good reason to believe they both will achieve great things in the future, and I clearly stated I am cautiously optimistic about both of them. But if I can only choose one, I’m going with Hocker, for reasons previously shared.
Genuine question: did we ever find out why Kessler missed a month of training? Seems like that would be pertinent information in this debate.
This closing paragraph is one of the reasons why I give the edge to Hocker in predicting future greatness. Neither Kessler’s 800 nor his 1000 are objectively better performances than the 3:34 1500 he ran last year. It’s concerning that he hasn’t raised his level at age 19 while training professionally with such a great support system. Why has this whole year gone by without him producing a better mark than his 3:34 last year?
It’s also concerning that Kessler didn’t get the experience of racing collegiately. Both of the US men’s 1500 global medalists this past decade got valuable experience in the NCAA. Advantage Hocker.
Additionally, Kessler has not shown that he can do well in championship racing. Running fast in one-off races is very different than handling the rounds and competition of national and global championships. Hocker has proven he can do it. Advantage Hocker.
I understand you don’t put as much emphasis on achievements to date as I do, but I think it’s huge due to the unpredictability of teenagers’ future progression. There have been far too many sub-4 high schoolers who failed to thrive at the professional level. For every Grant Fisher, there are 5 Matthew Matons. It’s a crapshoot.
When predicting who will have the better future, I think it’s logical to take the guy who excelled at the professional level at age 20 over a teenager who set an impressive national age group record a year ago but hasn’t improved upon it, hasn’t gained NCAA experience, and has struggled with championship racing.
That said, I want to reiterate I like them both, and I am cautiously optimistic about both of their futures. I just think Hocker is a safer bet.
Racing in College? Are you serious..two guys in a Decade? You are clearly one of the challenged , that do not get that Progress is rarely linear. Kessler's year this year is actually way more consistent and packed full of stuff than last year. Last year, he was "the flavor of that day" off one race, I told people on here, what was he more like? The 3:38-39 ish guy or THE 3:34.x guy..?look at all the other performances , running that once, was exactly what it was, it indicated HUGE talent. But the other really good marks for him was a four participant mile at Arkansas, running 3:57(and a big negative 8:39 two mile crushing Gavin Sherry), this year he ran that earlier, and people sh-t on it. Because they do not understand this at all.This year, 4 times sub 3:39.00 a couple of 3:36's in those, a 3:53 road mile, a 1:46.8(he is two months older than everybody's favorite Cade Flatt who ran in four Pro Type caliber races and ran what .4 faster) 800 and a 2:16.41 1000M, all with an increased training load and missing an entire month. There was nothing for him in college, really, and he is doing fine, he is 19 and a half. He gets to Train with the coach who took him from 4:08 1600 Once to 3:57 in one year, 8:39 two mile 1:47.8 relay split and 3:34.x , I would stick with this rather than dick around racing 24 year old, collegians now.
You are way too emotionally attached to Kessler. Every thread that mentions him you are white knighting, freaking out anytime someone implies Hobbs might not be the second coming of christ. Relax and take a deep breath.
Racing in College? Are you serious..two guys in a Decade? You are clearly one of the challenged , that do not get that Progress is rarely linear. Kessler's year this year is actually way more consistent and packed full of stuff than last year. Last year, he was "the flavor of that day" off one race, I told people on here, what was he more like? The 3:38-39 ish guy or THE 3:34.x guy..?look at all the other performances , running that once, was exactly what it was, it indicated HUGE talent. But the other really good marks for him was a four participant mile at Arkansas, running 3:57(and a big negative 8:39 two mile crushing Gavin Sherry), this year he ran that earlier, and people sh-t on it. Because they do not understand this at all.This year, 4 times sub 3:39.00 a couple of 3:36's in those, a 3:53 road mile, a 1:46.8(he is two months older than everybody's favorite Cade Flatt who ran in four Pro Type caliber races and ran what .4 faster) 800 and a 2:16.41 1000M, all with an increased training load and missing an entire month. There was nothing for him in college, really, and he is doing fine, he is 19 and a half. He gets to Train with the coach who took him from 4:08 1600 Once to 3:57 in one year, 8:39 two mile 1:47.8 relay split and 3:34.x , I would stick with this rather than dick around racing 24 year old, collegians now.
You are way too emotionally attached to Kessler. Every thread that mentions him you are white knighting, freaking out anytime someone implies Hobbs might not be the second coming of christ. Relax and take a deep breath.
Possibly, but the same issues get raised all the time. You want me to list them? Probably not. I do not even know Kessler, I know Ron, and when I read stuff that is so off the mark I respond. I will take my ball and go home. And no one will or should care. LOL
Then we can respectfully agree to disagree - and that's fine and what this message board should be all about.
Our differences in opinion are pretty simple - you like that Cole has "been there and done that before" and that's not bad logic at all. I agree it gives a sense of security to the rationale but I see they way he has looked this season and match that up with the insane volume of racing in 21, it gives me cause for concern. On the other hand I know that Kessler is surrounded by some really smart people who know how to build a career and part of that involves year to year consistency and constant progression. Even if Hobbs didn't run a 1500m PR this year he ran PR's over 800 and 1000m which does matter - Hocker came closest in the mile but couldn't even better his indoor time.
As for the racing aspect - yes, Hocker has proven he can navigate rounds and make finals and win them/perform very well. But as mentioned, running collegiately is a huge advantage over a kid who let's not forget, has basically been running seriously for 24 months, let alone mixing it up in college. He will learn and he has time to learn and good teachers for that. Final point on that, as Hocker showed this season you can be a great racer and know how to do it - it's meaningless if you are running on empty and hurt.
Next season will be a real crossroads one - especially for Hocker. He was very much on the up is currently down and we will see how he responds and more crucially if the coaching and support team get the offseason right. He could turn the ship back around - he could end up as rich mans Andrew Wheating.
Well put. I respect your take. *virtual handshake*
I agree that next year will be big for them. I sincerely hope they both make progress and at some point we see them go 1-2 in a global championship final. How awesome would that be?!
After seeing all the old prediction threads popping up this weekend, it will be fun to revisit this conversation after the 2028 Olympics. I won’t be mad at all if Kessler is the Olympic champion and I have to eat crow. :)
Well put. I respect your take. *virtual handshake*
I agree that next year will be big for them. I sincerely hope they both make progress and at some point we see them go 1-2 in a global championship final. How awesome would that be?!
After seeing all the old prediction threads popping up this weekend, it will be fun to revisit this conversation after the 2028 Olympics. I won’t be mad at all if Kessler is the Olympic champion and I have to eat crow. :)
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Kessler on the other hand has at least made real strides especially over 800m and his 1000m in Monaco was exceptional given its the first real time he's attempted that distance in a big pro meet. While he didn't a PR over 1500m he was a lot closer to it than Hocker. Also some perspective - we are talking about a 19 year old kid who isn't battle hardened through racing collegiately. Kessler has had a good season.
This closing paragraph is one of the reasons why I give the edge to Hocker in predicting future greatness. Neither Kessler’s 800 nor his 1000 are objectively better performances than the 3:34 1500 he ran last year. It’s concerning that he hasn’t raised his level at age 19 while training professionally with such a great support system. Why has this whole year gone by without him producing a better mark than his 3:34 last year?
He's had the same coach as he did his senior year, so nothing has really changed for him training wise. You don't magically get faster just because you're not in high school anymore. It's normal for runners to have plateaus, it can't just be exponential improvement their whole careers, yet for some reason we expect certain runners to never plateau or regress when that's just not realistic. Plus Hobbs has had injury issues, so I wouldn't dump the Kessler stock just yet.
Checking in on this thread now that we’re past the 2024 Olympics. So far I’ve been right that Hocker had the better future, but Kessler has had a really strong couple years himself and the future is looking bright for both of them. Shout out to Nuguse too. It’s a great time to be a fan of US distance running!
Both are good and both have bright futures. I think that Cole is going to be a better 5000 runner eventually and Hobbs slightly better at the 1500 though they’ll both be close to each other. If Hocker was at his peak form now I would take him at the 1500 & 5000 over Hobbs. Hobbs also has a good future at the 800.
He’s run a 3:27 1500m and you say he’s going to be a better 5000m runner…So you’re expecting he’ll go sub 12:40? A 12:40 is pretty much the performance equivalence.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Checking in on this thread now that we’re past the 2024 Olympics. So far I’ve been right that Hocker had the better future, but Kessler has had a really strong couple years himself and the future is looking bright for both of them. Shout out to Nuguse too. It’s a great time to be a fan of US distance running!
Man, Kessler is extremely talented and I think he will achieve great things, but good lord, does he have his work cut out for him.... Kessler just finished 5th in the Olympics in 3:29 and got 2nd in the Olympic Trials 800 in 1:43 as a 21 year old. This is a more impressive showing than Hocker's 21 year old achievements in my opinion. That said, Hocker just broke through to a whole new stratosphere of achievement so the bar has been set extremely high for Hobbs to strive for. Kessler will have to battle Wanyoni in the 800 who's only 20, and hope that dude doesn't move to the 1500, and will also have to deal with Niels Laros who is a freak talent in the 1500. Oh, and by the way, Hocker and Jakob are both only 23, only two years older than Hobbs lmao.
