-- UNPOPULAR OPINION : Jakob won't improve his 1500 PB this year --

zxvcvxcz wrote:

Predicting someone won't achieve some very difficult feat in any given year is easy and likely to be right. This was still a great year for him. In addition to dominating the 5000m at World's and Euro, he was undefeated in 1500m finals, and ran the fastest mile since 2001, 3:46.46, faster than Alan Webb's 2007 standard of 3:46.91, but just short of Steve Cram's European record. He ran 3:29 at least three times, including the fastest of the year in the last race. Had Ramsden gone out a bit slower, Jakob might have run 3:27. Jakob was out in 54.5. World record pace is 54.8. Jakob needs to get out in low to mid 55 and stay even to run sub-3:28. He ran 54.5/57/57/54.5, but might have run much better with 55.5/55.5=1:51--that way he would have less lactic buildup from the first lap--and then the key would have been another 55. to 2:46.5 instead of 2:48.08. A 41.3 would have gotten him under 3:28. He closed under 41 (roughly 40.95). In fact, he may be ready next year to go out in 55/55 (1:50), and then 3:26 high is a real possibility. However, it may require someone to push him to get there, or even taking a risk and emphasizing more speed in training and a better 800m pr more in line with his 1500m level.