When will legacy carmakers overtake Tesla EV sales?

He doesn't lose the software he paid for. He would lose access to the beta program. Because it's beta code, the drive has to pay close attention. You pretty much have to intentionally get three strikes to be kicked out. Tesla doesn't want people shooting crazy videos where the engage the system and jump in the back seat.

They can't just outsource everything and make a profit.

"Most experts" actually aren't saying that Tesla will be surpassed in a few years. Anyone who follows the industry closely can see how the legacy automakers are struggling to ramp up EV production.

Time will tell if you are right. The argument against adding more types of sensors is that it adds complexity. And the system gets confused when two sensors disagree. Also it makes the system more expensive.

I trust Tesla's system completely on the highway. It does an outstanding job taking me from on ramp to off ramp. It passes slower vehicles and moves over if a faster car is on my tail. And it never misses the off ramp. It's a very relaxing experience.

City streets are a different story though. You have to pay close attention. There is a lot more work to do before the system is perfected on complex city streets.

I'm not sure what you are referring to here.

If you mean the charging infrastructure, Tesla's supercharger network actually makes a small profit.

If you mean the sales and service network, Tesla doesn't use a dealership model. All sales and service centers are owned by Tesla, so they don't have to share profits with a dealership.

If you mean pure marketing, I'll just point out that while legacy automakers spend millions on advertising, Tesla has never spent a penny on a paid advertisement.

Correct!

Tesla could cut their prices by 25% and still make a profit.

I don't see supply catching up with demand for at least a few more years.

Legacy OEMs are in big trouble. I expect GM, Stellantis, and possibly Ford to file for bankruptcy in the next five years. The money they are planning to borrow to catch up with Tesla is astronomical and unsustainable.

That’s not at all what I’m talking about.

I believe Musk has talked about Tesla filing for bankruptcy recently. They have been laying people off as well.

No, he wasn't being serious about bankruptcy.

Tesla has been doing layoffs in some areas and also hiring like crazy in other areas. Total head count is expected to grow significantly.

Then what were you referring to when you said, "And they don’t have the high expense of creating a market or growing the infrastructure."

Tesla just announced it's Q2, 2022 production and delivery numbers.

Production: 258,580 (versus 206,421 in Q2 2021)
Deliveries: 254,695 (versus 201,250 in Q2 2021)

Note that Tesla's most productive plant, Shanghai, was shut down for much of April and May due to covid lockdowns. And still they blew away last year's numbers.

Also, Tesla said that June was the most productive month in Tesla history.

GM delivered just over 7,300 EVs for Q2.

Ford's numbers for Q2 are not out yet, but they delivered a total of 6,254 EVs in May.

So if we assume Ford tripled May EV sales for the quarter, you get a picture of how each is doing in terms of EVs:

Tesla: 254,695
Ford: 18,762
GM: 7,300

And here is how Tesla is doing overall compared to the others who have reported. Their sales are dropping while Tesla's sales are going through the roof.

The post has a mistake. It says it's for June, but actually it's for all of Q2 2022 versus Q2 2021

Mush has become the usual oligarch who HATES the people who work in his companies, and labor in general. You watch. Over time he will maximize beating the hell out of the Chinese work force and build as many Teslas in China as he possibly can, while simultaneously winnowing down the work force in the US (especially California, which he now seems to hate). He'll tolerate the Germans only as much as required to sell in Europe.

Here we have a man completely dependent on the US government for his fortune who now hates paying taxes, hates the federal government, hates his work force, and hates the American worker. He's the ultimate douche bag tech bro with Bezos right behind.

The best thing that could happen for Tesla would be for them to completely shed themselves of Mush and build without him.

1. Market leader despite $0 spent advertising.

2. Best battery technology and battery production infrastructure, and battery patents

3. No bloated dealership model

4. No union (I'm pro union, but there's no doubt that this makes them harder to compete with)

I don't want to pick on Henry Ford II, but he's got a 5+ year history here if ridiculously low expectations for Tesla. You can use the search function to see his predictions that they would never sell 100,000 cars, never make a profit, be bankrupt by 2018, and on and on.

I'm not a huge fan of Musk's politics, but we should set the record straight.

The idea that he hates his workers is just silly. He pays them better than union wages and gives them stock options on top of that, even for hourly workers. He does demand that everyone work very hard and exhibit tremendous dedication. And he sets an example by working harder and longer than anyone else.

As to how he got his fortune, he made is first millions when he helped to create PayPal. Then he put every cent he had into Tesla and SpaceX. He went from having something like $180 million to being completely broke. Tesla did take some government loans and then paid them back early, with interest.

In contrast, GM still owes the taxpayers billions.

Ok. NOW I see what you meant. Lol

That bro has a hard-on for Musk.

I am an investor in Tesla. And I own a Model Y.

I admire Elon's engineering and business skills. And I'm very concerned about the environment so I'm glad that Elon and JB Straubel turned the world on to EVs.

There is a lot I don't like about Elon, but since he became the world's richest man he has become the target of a lot of misguided criticism from the left. And that is unproductive if your goal is to save the planet for our grandchildren.

You forgot the part about shafting the founder of Tesla after investing a majority stake.

Think of it this way:

Maybe legacy automakers overtake Tesla in total annual EV sales.

But that may only happen by them selling fewer gas cars as the market changes and EVs outsell gas cars.

If Tesla has a smaller share of a bigger market, that’s still potential growth and they could be doing well.

Would you rather have 75% of a million or 25% of a billion?

I looked up the top selling models of vehicles in the US. The top three were pickups. The #4 was the Toyota Camry. The base Camry has an MSRP of $27k. The cheapest Tesla has an MSRP of $47k.

EVs need to close this gap to become attractive to the typical US car buyer.

The big question is whether EVs are scalable. Right now, based on battery limitations... cost, size, time to charge, range... EVs are not scalable. They are niche vehicles. EV advocates say new battery technology will solve these problems. I'm not so sure... at least not for the next 20 years.

Batteries are a mature technology, just like the ICE engine is mature technology. Advances in the future are likely to be incremental, not disruptive breakthroughs.