So far we have Bob Kennedy (‘96), Bernard Lagat (‘05), Dathan Ritzenhein (‘09), Matt Tegenkamp (‘09), Chris Solinsky (‘10), Galen Rupp (‘12), Paul Chelimo (‘18), Woody Kincaid (‘19), Lopez Lomong (‘20), and Grant Fisher (‘22). How many will add their names to the list in the coming 3 seasons (through 2024), and who will they be?
I’m going to be rather optimistic and say that the group will swell to 16 by September 2024. Not only that, but I’ll predict multiple athletes will do it at a younger age than any of the existing ten (current standard: Grant Fisher at 24 years, 9 months).
2022 - Cooper Teare, Joe Klecker
2023 - Cole Hocker, Abdihamid Nur
2024 - Nico Young, Morgan Beadlescomb
Yes, Beadlescomb might be a bit of a stretch but I like his trajectory, and between his 3:52.0 indoor mile and the manner in which he ran 13:17 (in a loss to Brian Fay, mind you), it wouldn’t really surprise me if he runs sub-13:10 this year. Then get him in a good pro training group like On or the Notorious B.T.C., and he goes 12:59 come summer of ‘24.
Grant Fisher is a very good runner but indoor 1500m to 5000m no longer matter. Indoor tracks are juiced. Grant Fisher, if he wants to, he will race sub-13 outdoors but as far as I'm concerned, he has not.
We will not see another sub 13 for a while. Fisher's was a "one of". And there is nobody capable of sub 13 at this time. Maybe in 3-5 years when the next generation of runners matures.
We will not see another sub 13 for a while. Fisher's was a "one of". And there is nobody capable of sub 13 at this time. Maybe in 3-5 years when the next generation of runners matures.
Nonsense post. Nur just ran 13:06 and Nico 13:11. Both could go under within a year. Teare and Klecker are not far off.
We will not see another sub 13 for a while. Fisher's was a "one of". And there is nobody capable of sub 13 at this time. Maybe in 3-5 years when the next generation of runners matures.
Nonsense post. Nur just ran 13:06 and Nico 13:11. Both could go under within a year. Teare and Klecker are not far off.
These same things were said about Ben True and Hassan Mead. Breaking 13 for US men has not been easy.
As a BYU alum, I would love to see Mantz join that club; but, as a few others have already mentioned, that is a tall order for him. I suspect that Mantz is utilizing these shorter distance track races to improve his speed as he focuses on the roads; but, not with any heavy focus on making waves on the track. Mantz, though, already has better 5000m and 10,000m times than Ryan Hall; and, improving his speed even more will only springboard him into contention for one of Hall's American records. With that being said, I love seeing him continue to share the track with Nur and Young. If anyone is going to go sub-13, I would go with those two. They have shown that they have the speed, which will only improve more once they go pro. It is definitely a great time for the sport!
As a BYU alum, I would love to see Mantz join that club; but, as a few others have already mentioned, that is a tall order for him. I suspect that Mantz is utilizing these shorter distance track races to improve his speed as he focuses on the roads; but, not with any heavy focus on making waves on the track. Mantz, though, already has better 5000m and 10,000m times than Ryan Hall; and, improving his speed even more will only springboard him into contention for one of Hall's American records. With that being said, I love seeing him continue to share the track with Nur and Young. If anyone is going to go sub-13, I would go with those two. They have shown that they have the speed, which will only improve more once they go pro. It is definitely a great time for the sport!
So hard to predict these things but I'm partial to Nur. He was essentially a soccer player until his senior year of high school. I think he still has lots of upside. But any number of runners can make the jump. Klecker & Teare are promising, as is Young.
Nonsense post. Nur just ran 13:06 and Nico 13:11. Both could go under within a year. Teare and Klecker are not far off.
These same things were said about Ben True and Hassan Mead. Breaking 13 for US men has not been easy.
Nur has dropped 20 seconds since last track season and seems to get better with every race that he runs. Young is 19 and has huge upside from being, well, young. He's dropped his PR 13 seconds in a year and although I don't think he'll get under next year, he's got a very high chance of doing it as a college senior.
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A good act does not wash out the bad, nor a bad act the good
Nonsense post. Nur just ran 13:06 and Nico 13:11. Both could go under within a year. Teare and Klecker are not far off.
These same things were said about Ben True and Hassan Mead. Breaking 13 for US men has not been easy.
True and Mead didn't run 13:06 or 13:11 in college, though. Every US athlete to ever break 13 ran slower than 13:06 at Nur's age, and slower than 13:11 at Nico's age. Klecker is running 13:04 in his season opener after less than 2 years as a pro, and Teare ran 13:06 in March after ~ 3 months as a pro. WAY different scenarios than True or Mead had. I think they'll all be under 13 in 2 years.
Nur has dropped 20 seconds since last track season and seems to get better with every race that he runs. Young is 19 and has huge upside from being, well, young. He's dropped his PR 13 seconds in a year and although I don't think he'll get under next year, he's got a very high chance of doing it as a college senior.
I predict Young will run ~13:05 as a college junior and then forego his senior track season in order to join a pro group and focus on making the Paris Olympic team—and he’ll do so, placing 2nd to Grant Fisher in the OT 10k. He’ll also run 12:59.22 that season, a mark he’ll find difficult to improve upon in the following years.
Nothing against Beadlescomb, but why did you put him and not Mantz? Mantz now has ran 13:13, which is technically 4 seconds faster than Beadlescomb's PR. I feel like he has at least as good of a shot
let us know when Mantz can run 3:52 solo...or in any conditions
Nothing against Beadlescomb, but why did you put him and not Mantz? Mantz now has ran 13:13, which is technically 4 seconds faster than Beadlescomb's PR. I feel like he has at least as good of a shot
let us know when Mantz can run 3:52 solo...or in any conditions
Wait, has Beadlescomb run 3:52 solo? That’s not the way I remember it.
If the spikes are worth even half as much as you claim, virtually everyone at the elite level has gone backwards since 2018. Do you honestly believe that if you went back in time and gave Barega a pair of Dragonflies he would’ve run under 12:30 in Brussels?
The “super” spikes MIGHT be worth a couple seconds over 5k. Anybody like you saying multiple seconds per kilometer is a clown.
Go look through those performance and take a look at the nationalities. Notice any trends? There are less and less Kenyans and Kenyan expats as time goes on. The event overall is FAR less deep now than it was 10-15 years ago as most of those athletes have moved to the marathon as it's far more financially lucrative.
If the spikes are worth even half as much as you claim, virtually everyone at the elite level has gone backwards since 2018. Do you honestly believe that if you went back in time and gave Barega a pair of Dragonflies he would’ve run under 12:30 in Brussels?
The “super” spikes MIGHT be worth a couple seconds over 5k. Anybody like you saying multiple seconds per kilometer is a clown.
Go look through those performance and take a look at the nationalities. Notice any trends? There are less and less Kenyans and Kenyan expats as time goes on. The event overall is FAR less deep now than it was 10-15 years ago as most of those athletes have moved to the marathon as it's far more financially lucrative.
What’s your point? If your explanation for the lack of a massive shift in 5k times is that all the best talent moved to the roads, and now the combination of inferior athletes + superior shoes is keeping us in line with past years, it simply doesn’t work. Look at any athlete who was already fast prior to 2019 and see what they’re running now. Hell, just look at the ridiculous “drop off” many of them had in a single year:
If what you’re saying is true, the top 5k athletes got 21 seconds slower on average from 2018 to 2019. Somehow we went from three guys breaking 12:50 in one year to no one (including those same three guys) being able to do it in the last three years. Good luck explaining that.
Go look through those performance and take a look at the nationalities. Notice any trends? There are less and less Kenyans and Kenyan expats as time goes on. The event overall is FAR less deep now than it was 10-15 years ago as most of those athletes have moved to the marathon as it's far more financially lucrative.
What’s your point? If your explanation for the lack of a massive shift in 5k times is that all the best talent moved to the roads, and now the combination of inferior athletes + superior shoes is keeping us in line with past years, it simply doesn’t work. Look at any athlete who was already fast prior to 2019 and see what they’re running now. Hell, just look at the ridiculous “drop off” many of them had in a single year:
If what you’re saying is true, the top 5k athletes got 21 seconds slower on average from 2018 to 2019. Somehow we went from three guys breaking 12:50 in one year to no one (including those same three guys) being able to do it in the last three years. Good luck explaining that.
I thought the one dude ran 12:35 in 2020. I thought Jakob and Jacob have broken 12:50. I could go on…
Lol when I read the thread title my first thought was, "Well you have Merritt, obviously, and Holloway. David Oliver, Devon Allen, Nehemiah, who else...?"
Gosh, I am going out on a limb here...Evan Jager next winter at BU 2023.
Caveat - if he stays healthy for the remainder of the year and into next winter. I mean he ran 13:12 with a limited base and being injured for two years straight.
Go look through those performance and take a look at the nationalities. Notice any trends? There are less and less Kenyans and Kenyan expats as time goes on. The event overall is FAR less deep now than it was 10-15 years ago as most of those athletes have moved to the marathon as it's far more financially lucrative.
What’s your point? If your explanation for the lack of a massive shift in 5k times is that all the best talent moved to the roads, and now the combination of inferior athletes + superior shoes is keeping us in line with past years, it simply doesn’t work. Look at any athlete who was already fast prior to 2019 and see what they’re running now. Hell, just look at the ridiculous “drop off” many of them had in a single year:
If what you’re saying is true, the top 5k athletes got 21 seconds slower on average from 2018 to 2019. Somehow we went from three guys breaking 12:50 in one year to no one (including those same three guys) being able to do it in the last three years. Good luck explaining that.
This is not a hard concept to understand.
There is less top talent running the 5k right now as it has moved to the roads. If that talent would have stayed in the 5k, you would see an explosion of faster times in that event
Instead, that talent has moved to the roads where you have seen an explosion of faster times (ie, half marathon/marathon).
There was a pandemic. There're plenty of guys on the track who can run fast right now. Yes, Kenya is down a bit due to guys moving to the roads. That has been more than offset by Uganda having 2 amazing guys. It is only a matter of time until some really fast times are run.
Here are your Sixteen 12:55 guys or faster: Nicholas Kimeli, Daniel Ebenyo, Grant Fisher, Mo Ahmed, Justin Knight, Selemon Barega, Getnet Wale, Lamecha Girma, Hagos Gebrhiwet, Muktar Edris, Berihu Aregawi, Yomif Kejelcha, Mo Katir, Joshua Cheptegei, Jacob Kiplimo, Jakob Ingrebridsten
6 Guys knocking on the door: Marc Scott, Jacob Krop, Tadese Worku, Daniel Mataiko, Birhanu Balew, Milkesha Mengesha,