Chicago weather adjustments

I empathize. Columbus looks to be 55 at the start/high of 72 on 10/17, hoping that even if it rises to low 60s it's still manageable.

I've always had good luck referring to this chart for adjusting paces in humid conditions on warm summery runs all the way down to the not quite fall temperatures we're getting on the east coast this week. Dew point is everything!

https://maximumperformancerunning.blogspot.com/2013/07/temperature-dew-point.html

So for my goal of 2:30 at Boston, I see a dew point + temp of ~125 at Boston, which is a 1.5% adjustment. 150 minutes * 1.015 = 2:32.25 or 2:32:15 finish time.

I have been aggressively checking and it appears lock solid that it will be a warm day with dew points in the low 60s. Anybody have insight regarding the effect Lake Michigan may have on the temperatures on the marathon route? I have heard the temperatures can be considerably cooler on the marathon route given its proximity to the water. Thus, I am not sure if the Chicago forecasts I am looking at paint the whole picture. Trying to stay optimistic.

DGM wrote:

I have been aggressively checking and it appears lock solid that it will be a warm day with dew points in the low 60s. Anybody have insight regarding the effect Lake Michigan may have on the temperatures on the marathon route? I have heard the temperatures can be considerably cooler on the marathon route given its proximity to the water. Thus, I am not sure if the Chicago forecasts I am looking at paint the whole picture. Trying to stay optimistic.

There is no lake effect on the marathon route, you are trapped between tall buildings for a lot of it. If it's 80 like the weather says, it's going to be hot and it's going to suck. I've run Chicago twice and lived there for 13 years.

I live across the street from lake michi. It's the same. Maybe makes a difference on an 85 degree summer day when the lake is 67, but lake temps right now are close-ish to air temps.

Run your race down 15"/mi slower than your ideal conditions goal pace and come back and thank me later.

what I do when racing on hot days is pay attention to heart rate and try to account for the additional work of cooling by basically running at whatever pace I can hold at say 92% of max heart rate or whatever your HR typically is on race day

time adjustment:

With temperatures of 70 at the start and climbing to 75, Dew Point 63 we get 133 score + the wind of 14 mph/ with Guests of 22MPH I would say add another few points and we are looking at at least 3% adjustment or 10 seconds a mile best case scenario .

That would be for faster runners 2:20-2:45 Range and most likely the slower your time the more seconds need to adjust. 3 hours person 15 sec per mile adjustment on the safe side so if things are going good at 18 to 20 miles then can pick up the pace.

Also depends on what type of runner someone is. If you consider yourself a good heat runner then perhaps 3% adjustment would be normal. That is just average.

The problem here is that if someone starts faster then capable the race will get ugly very fast and will see some DNF or very positive splits in the second half. The key is to run relaxed until 13.1 and most important to start the first 3 to 4 miles at slower end just to give the body time to adjust and feel out the effort. I believe at that point you can ask yourself a question is this the pace I can run for another 22 Miles and you will know what to do.

In my opinion it is possible to have a nice race as long as all stars align and strategy is in place.

Good Luck to everyone and just do your best

Well folks, I'm out. My son just got sent home for a 2-week quarantine because of a covid exposure, so I'm running Des Moines next weekend. I was able to get out of the hotel cost because of covid, and it's just less stressful on the whole family for me to skip this weekend while we wait for covid tests to come back. Given I can avoid the conditions this weekend and run a relatively flat course in cooler weather, I'm pretty happy with the option.

What do you all think I should do given my messed up taper? I have a pretty good base of long runs: 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 23. My last long run was 23 miles on 9/17, about 3 weeks out. I did a 16 mile harder run at 7:08 pace (7:25->6:30) on 9/29 11 days out.

I'm thinking I'll do 15-16 miles tomorrow medium tempo, that's 8 days out. Wejo concurs. But part of me wonders if I'm better off doing 18-20 easier given my last long will be a month out from the new race day.

Anyone else with thoughts/experience?

I think anything 15-20 is ok. You’re not going to lose fitness from one extra week of rest. It might be helpful. I ran a half marathon with a situation similar to yours. I was supposed to run one weekend, but had to cancel and push to the next weekend. Did 13ish miles the week before my race and then ran the best race I ever have. I know a half isn’t the same as a full, but don’t fret too much over the extra week of taper.

I’d bag it and run Indy in a few weeks - should still be able to get in, always great weather, good course