Turning 40 is around the corner. Former HS sprinter. Just starting to run. Is a sub-18 5K realistic?

seth82 wrote:

Looking for a mid-life challenge. Will soon be turning 40, and am healthy/active (occasional hikes, occasional bike, walk, etc.), but don't really run. Is a sub-18 5K within 2 years realistic? If not, what's a more realistic goal?

More about me:

*6'1, 180lbs

*Decent high-school sprinter (11-flat 100m)

*1 year of cross country when I was 15yo -- PR (also my first race ever) was just under 19 minutes

*For kicks, I recently went to a local track to see what an all-out 400m felt like. I ran it in 70 seconds.

Honestly, just go get a baseline for the 5k. 400m is not very useful for predicting 5000m, and if you are thinking of a long-term goal, that's the very least you should ask of yourself before deciding whether or not to invest in this.

For best results, don't go too hard from the start and try to get faster every half mile to mile. If you go out way too fast and have to jog or walk the last mile, the time is not predictive.

Flagpole wrote:

ddidididid wrote:

nobody can answer this. very few 40 year olds run 18min 5k. But very few 40 year olds are willing to train 7+ hours/week for 2 years...

That doesn't guarantee it either. Have to have some talent even to run a 5k in 20 minutes.

the point is almost nobody tries to run a fast 5k. Most jog 30mpw, maybe do a couple strides and run a race.

As expected all the fast guy(sub 16) talk about how it is no big deal to run 40s/mile slower than their prime off minimal training. They are disconnected from reality.

If he said he wanted to run 22 mins everyone would say you have a great chance say you want to run 15 mins and we would go you are being optimistic. 18 is in that middle were a lot can do it and probably even more cant.

i bet the letsrun success rate for posts like this is down around 5%. the idea of getting in shape and running a good race is seductive. Very few can execute...

Almost nobody tries to run a fast 5k because it hurts too damn much and it makes no sense unless you have personality disorders like most runners do.

But seriously, without further data points, it's all BS conjecture, but if I had to bet my life, I would say mid 18's is a more likely landing spot than a sub 18, that's going to be a heavy lift.

Need to see what that first 5k looks like.

FWIW, I didn't start running until my late 30s and had no athletic background.

We're all experiments of one - and running improvement is bound by law of diminishing returns.

I do live a large metropolitan area, so fields are deeper. Just checked results for a local 5K - 19 guys over 40 finished sub-18. Looks like 6 were sub-16:30 and one Master sub 15.

The point is, sub-18 is quite doable for most willing to train.

Ernest wrote:

6403 wrote:

It may be "common" for guys who ran distance in college, but it is far from "common". And if there was a long list of guys who beat you in local races running mid 16's, you are living in a relative "hotbed" of road racing. Mid 16's would usually win most races where I live unless some kid showed up from college or just out who dipped into the 15's.

FWIW, I didn't start running until my late 30s and had no athletic background.

We're all experiments of one - and running improvement is bound by law of diminishing returns.

I do live a large metropolitan area, so fields are deeper. Just checked results for a local 5K - 19 guys over 40 finished sub-18. Looks like 6 were sub-16:30 and one Master sub 15.

The point is, sub-18 is quite doable for most willing to train.

You were "talented" but didn't know it. I don't buy the premise that sub 18 can be done by most "anybody" that just trains hard enough, that's pure nonsense. This particular individual is an athlete, so he has a much better shot than most attempting something like this if he goes forward.

I got up to 70 mpw and was just barely able to scrape 19 low in my mid forties. At that point, my body was falling apart and basically had to give up regular road racing for good.

Talent is way more important that work ethic.

Whatever probability you assign to sub-18 5K success as a Master, others are doing it, and you might, too. Only way to find out is to train and try.

Ernest wrote:

[

FWIW, I didn't start running until my late 30s and had no athletic background.

We're all experiments of one - and running improvement is bound by law of diminishing returns.

I do live a large metropolitan area, so fields are deeper. Just checked results for a local 5K - 19 guys over 40 finished sub-18. Looks like 6 were sub-16:30 and one Master sub 15.

The point is, sub-18 is quite doable for most willing to train.

so there were only 38 masters guys in thr racr since most ran sub 18? Or was it like 2019 carlbad were 32 masters out of a 1000 broke 18? Do you go thats a lot of people or a small percent?

have any of you ever been to a boys XC race were most of the field fails to break 18 on a flat course after years of training?

18 isnt some impossible goal but if the OP can do it is probably 50/50. maybe adapts well to training and drops a sub 17. Maybe he staggers around running 22s. nobody will be able to answer that til he does some training.

Most likely not going to happen. Most people here think it is easy because it is easy for them. It is like asking physics majors how easy differential equations are.

Shouldn’t stop you from trying though.

I'm similar. 6'2.5 180-185 most of my life, and I'm minimally older than you. I ran 11.7

FAT when I was 16 but never raced 100 again. I was a decathlon type more than a pure sprinter, though I didn't realize it until I started coaching. I could jump quite high and throw a long way (standing vert of 32" was my best, and 49.31m Javelin at age 30 with no training other than experimenting with it while coaching youth).

When covid shut things down in March 2020 I switched to aerobic training - biking, rowing (erg), and running (primarily treadmill). I'm now 172lbs despite the higher bodyfat than when I was 180-185. I'd probably be 168 or so with similar bodyfat levels as when I was heavier and stronger.

Here are some marks I achieved 12-15 months later: <41min 10km run, <37min 10km erg (concept2), 6:40.4 2km erg, cycling FTP of 341 Watts.

For you I think 18minutes is unlikely in the time frame you have, but I think it depends a lot on how much you enjoy running and how well your body handles the stress of running. In the summer I'll happily ride my bike 2 hours a day without any joint issues - it's just managing intensity so I'm not fried; running is different in that the impact stress is a limiting factor for training.

Good luck.

voice of reason. wrote:

Most likely not going to happen. Most people here think it is easy because it is easy for them. It is like asking physics majors how easy differential equations are.

Shouldn’t stop you from trying though.

Exactly.

Unsurprisingly, two of my favorite films are "Without Limits" and "Chariots of Fire".

The scene with Bowerman and Pre were Bowerman basically tells Pre that he's full of crap, that running

isn't determined by force of will but by the genetic gifts that he has that basically make him one in a million.

In "Fire", Harold Abraham's coach tells him "You can't put in what god left out".

Yes, you can work your butt off, but at the end of the day we all have limits, and it's ridiculous to say

that "anybody" can go sub "any number". That's just ego stroking nonsense.

But that doesn't mean we shouldn't try, that's what it's all about.

OP here. Lots of good input/opinions. If I were to put some numbers to things, based on what I've heard, along with my own opinion woven in,

1.) There's a high likelihood I'll get a nagging injury and then quit -- say >50%.

2.) If I can avoid injury, and if I follow a proper training regimen (working up to, say, 50mpw), the likelihood of hitting this within 24 months is >75%, assuming above an above average level of natural talent.

I'll head to a track this weekend and run 12.5 laps. Gut feeling says I'll clock in at 24 minutes or so.

Thanks all.

seth82 wrote:

OP here. Lots of good input/opinions. If I were to put some numbers to things, based on what I've heard, along with my own opinion woven in,

1.) There's a high likelihood I'll get a nagging injury and then quit -- say >50%.

2.) If I can avoid injury, and if I follow a proper training regimen (working up to, say, 50mpw), the likelihood of hitting this within 24 months is >75%, assuming above an above average level of natural talent.

I'll head to a track this weekend and run 12.5 laps. Gut feeling says I'll clock in at 24 minutes or so.

Thanks all.

Good idea.

Running by yourself you'll probably lose a good 30 seconds to a minute over what you would run in road race conditions where you have the adrenaline and other people pulling you along.

Good luck, I'll be following your progress!

To give you another data comparison point, as my background seems quite similar to yours:

* I'm 45

* 6'0", 190lbs (was 170 in peak condition)

* Also ran 11 flat hundred, 50 flat 400

* Also 1 year of cross country when I was 15, but I don't think I ever broke 21 min

* All out 400 for me right now is roughly 75 (if I don't pull my hamstring in the middle of it)

Been running consistently since the beginning of the pandemic, was pretty out of shape before that (weighed roughly 210). Have been able to run 20 miles/week pretty consistently. Got as high as 35/week but started to pick up injuries.

When I'm in a good stretch of training, I'll go down to my local track and time trial a mile. I haven't been able to break 7 minutes (peaked at 7:01 before latest injuries). I don't think breaking 18 minutes for 5k is something my body is literally capable of at this point in my life - maybe if I dropped 15 pounds? Go for it though - I'm way more healthy now and I feel great!

Ran 25:03.... it was also 100 degrees yesterday, so it felt like a slog the entire way.

A 7 minute improvement (i.e. a drop of 28% down to 18 mins) sounds ambitious, but I guess we'll see. Probably less optimistic now than I was before, but I guess we'll see...

seth82 wrote:

Ran 25:03.... it was also 100 degrees yesterday, so it felt like a slog the entire way.

A 7 minute improvement (i.e. a drop of 28% down to 18 mins) sounds ambitious, but I guess we'll see. Probably less optimistic now than I was before, but I guess we'll see...

Gotta be at least a 30 - 60 sec "penalty" for the heat, plus it was your first one. Do another one where you're not running in a blast furnace, will be a better indicator than this one, plus now you'll have a much better idea of pacing.

I’m hoping for the same. I’m 41 and got back into running in May. My PR 10 years ago was 18:05 with consistent, but not ideal training.

I went from not running in literally 10 years to a 21:30 on a course that was a bit hilly in 3 months. Goal is to beat my old PR by late next year.

As far as weight goes, I’m 5’10” and was probably 150 10 years ago, currently I’m 170 down from 180. I got into powerlifting for about 5 years and got fluffy.

Currently nursing an achy si joint, and taking it easy for a week. :/

Best of luck to you!

To clarify, this is not a "local race." It's a large, big city race that's local to you. Running 14:59 at 40 age grades to 91%, an international-level result. Out in the world of charity 5Ks, you might get 5 guys total breaking 20 minutes. Why not just name the race for some context? In my whole state - a small state that's easy to miss and probably has less people than your metropolitan area - there may not be any 40-49 year old runners breaking 18 right now. I'd love to live in a place with the kind of running scene you describe, but a lot of people don't have anything like it.

I know a lot of people willing to train who are discovering the opposite.

seth82 wrote:

OP here. Lots of good input/opinions. If I were to put some numbers to things, based on what I've heard, along with my own opinion woven in,

1.) There's a high likelihood I'll get a nagging injury and then quit -- say >50%.

2.) If I can avoid injury, and if I follow a proper training regimen (working up to, say, 50mpw), the likelihood of hitting this within 24 months is >75%, assuming above an above average level of natural talent.

I'll head to a track this weekend and run 12.5 laps. Gut feeling says I'll clock in at 24 minutes or so.

Thanks all.

Some physical therapist or trainer may provide a free evaluation of areas you are weak. We all have weak areas that may lead to injuries. I have issue supposedly due to weak hips and glutes. I do strengthening exercises and stretches the really help. I have stopped doing them a few times and the pain returned.

Find a running club or group of runners to run with and follow them on Strava. Seeing all the others I know running year round getting in great runs, even in brutal Great Lakes winter weather helps to motivate me. Some sign up for a race 3 to 6 months away to motivate them.

Set shorter term goals too.

Consider longer races. I seldom run 5K because they hurt so much. I don't enjoy pushing myself that hard that my chest hurts. My favorite distance may be 10 mile race and then half marathon would be 2nd. I can beat my 21 year old daughter in any run from say 4 miles or longer but she just about killed me during the first 2 miles of one run when she was trying to break me. We can run 5 to 8 miles and I know she can always out sprint me the last 1/4 to 1//2 mile. No amount of training will give me the speed of youth that she has.

Focus more on the enjoyment of running now rather than time goal so that you continue. If you do not enjoy most of your daily runs you will quit. Make sure every other day is at an easy pace. In the past I probably ran too many tempo runs every week--I did not understand they were marathon tempos. I thought they were too slow to be tempos. I am now following Hanson Advanced Marathon plan. While running 3 hard workouts a week, harder than in the past, I have been staying healthy possibly due to running easy pace for recovery days and due to strengthening work 3 to 5 times a week.

Congratulations on loosing weight. I was up to 230 back around 2012 before I started walking for a year and counting calories. I quickly got down to 175 and continued dropping weight. I am 6"0" and now weigh 160 to 165 most of the time. I would like to keep my weight under 160 but have not been disciplined enough to keep in below 160 for more than a week or two at a time. I started running in 2013. I am in my mid-50's.

I peaked by 2016 when I ran 19:15 5K and my first marathon of 3:24 and 2nd marathon 2 months later, my best, 3:10. I did those on 35 mpw long term base and probably a lot of weeks of 40 mpw in the months leading up to the races. I probably had a few in the 50's. I have had hamstring strains twice since then and some other injuries. My speed has stayed about the same. In 2019 I switched to more half marathons and worked on 10 mile race. I added occasional interval workouts to improve speed for HM races. I got to 1:30 in HM and 1:06+ in 10 mile race in 2019. I don't know how I maintained ~6:40 for ten miles and doubt I could ever duplicate that again. But then I never thought I would beat my low 1:32 HM from 2016 which is why I did not run another HM race until 2019.

I have run behind a few bigger runners that humbled me in races. In one the guy in front of me had more of an out of shape former football player build. I could see he had some fat under the skin in his exposed shoulders. His breathing sounded very labored. I was actually worried he may collapse. I thought he would slow down at any point. It was me that could not maintain the pace. He finished in front of me by probably 30 to 50 seconds. He was 10 year or more younger than me.

I may be able to go just under 19 in a 5K if the weather is cool but I am not sure I can motivate myself enough to go through that type of pain again. It is hard enough for me to do my weekly interval workout at 10K race pace of about 1:37 a lap. I did a mile time trial in March before my marathon training started on a section of road that dropped 50 ft slowly over the mile. My time was 6:00. I would likely have be able to go under 6 if I had paced myself better--I start off way too fast.

I ran cross country and track for 4 years in high school. I think my 5K PR was about 17:45 but most times were in 18+. My weight my sophomore year, my fastest probably, was 145 lb. I think I let my weight go up too much. It may have been as much as 165 when I was a senior. I have constant shin splints or other injuries it seemed especially junior and senior year. I have never thought of myself as someone who is a naturally talented runner. I know my current times put me on only a regional level for my age. I will never come close to earning an age group award in any race with a bigger, competitive field of runners in my age group. I enjoy my daily runs and challenging myself. I don't race much because I don't enjoy experiencing the pressure that often or pushing my body to the limit too often.