The Official is DONE thread - these athletes won't be in Tokyo

Ben Shiller wrote:

Why? You seem to not understand how important having an organized governing body is to navigate the minefields of the protocols of COVID at Tokyo. This is a major issue and the countries that are run by a bunch of clowns (cough, Kenya) are at a major disadvantage here.

Even if COVID weren't a factor, the US likely will medal in the w steeple, w1500, both 800s, all of the sprints, all of the hurdles, both shots, all of the relays, w hammer, w pv, etc. What's wrong that kind of a medal haul?

Wont medal in the w1500 the 400 norman hasn't proved anything at championships and relays the US are just as big a chance of dropping the baton

Daltonj800m wrote:

thegripper07 wrote:

Unfortunately this is likely true. We will likely get medals in the 800 but it is possible that we won't get any medals in events longer than 800.

Potential Medals

-Women's 3000mSC (Coburn/Frerichs)

-Women's 1500m (Houlihan)

-Women's 800m (Wilson/Rogers/Mu ALL can debatably get a medal)

-Men's 1500m (Centro. Never count him out in a championship setting)

-Men's 5000m (Chelimo)

There is so much medal potential above 800m. Maybe not as dominant as the east Africans, but it is there

Centro and Chelimo no chance of medalling rn they are both nowhere near where they need to be to compete i would put a large bet they wouldn't medal centro will be lucky to even make the team

Bad Wigins wrote:

TMADDDHASFNE wrote:

Bruce Jenner

Bruce will be competing as a woman for governor of California. Way bigger than any olympics.

The odds are the same

Dan & Dave

After an athlete has been a pro a few years, no one runs "way better" even without changing coaches. World class athletes are the top 1%. When you get to that level, improvement is small, incremental. Jenny Simpson has improved less than 3 seconds her entire pro career, most of it with Wetmore coaching her. Clayton Murphy as a pro hasn't run any faster at 800 than he did as a college senior. Evan Jager has been stuck at 8:00 since 2015, all with Schumacher. Centro has improved less than 2 seconds his entire pro career. Galen Rupp ran his 12:58 his third year as a pro and never ran faster. In his entire pro career Andrew Wheating never ran any faster than the 3:30 he posted as a college senior. Alexa Efraimson ran 4:03 as a high schooler. Now 24, after six years as a pro she's yet to improve on that mark. Once they get to the highest levels very few runners run "way better" regardless of who his coaching them.

Wejo and Rojo

These guys are totally done with their pro running careers. Someone get them a walker

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Kenenisa Bekele

This one hurts my heart and soul. Wish he coulda capped off his career with one more olympics, but forever a distance GOAT.

Centro is done in the 1500. I don’t know what crack people are smoking to make them think he’s a potential gold medalist, I’m not even sure if he’s top 5 in the US right now. If you watch his 1500m, you’ll see him try to make a move at 300m, and completely tie up, off of 3:40 pace. With people like Cheriut (excuse my atrocious spelling) and Ingebrigtsen in the race, I just can’t see it possibly being tactical enough to go slower than 3:40 pace. The 2016 Centro is dead, no disrespect meant. I want to see him try to make the 5k team.

I also think Murphy’s world class 800 days are done, but I want to see him run the 1500. He’s always stricken me as more of a 1500 guy anyway.

CopperRunner wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Kenenisa Bekele

He’s always stricken me as more of a 1500 guy anyway.

Stricken? Is he contagious?

Mods, please stop deleting posts. People are allowed to nominate people they think aren't going to make the Olympics. Is it harsh? A little. So what. This is a fan forum.

Posters, please remember you are talking about real people. One thing I often think about in posting myself is, "Don't post anything you wouldn't feel justifying to the athlete in question at a press conference."

For example, I put a fork in Alexa Efraimson in this thread. Do I wish she was in better shape? Yes. I hope I'm proving wrong but I'd be happy to explain when you are getting 10th the road mile and then rabbiting races, it's not looking good. I was really hoping the swith to Pete Julian would change things but so far it hasn't. Hopefully with more time things get better.

sydney "the brow" mclaughlin . falls on 1st hurdle at trials

It's assumed you have to get the qualifier to get to the trials or you can hit the qualifier at the trials?

Apologies as I'm too lazy too look for myself.

Do I get to be first to mention Gwen?

Also I hope to see Droddy and Diego Estrada at the 10k trials

One is an underdog the other shouldn't be imho

kirkandorules wrote:

Dan & Dave

thank you for this

Have We Done This Before wrote:

It's assumed you have to get the qualifier to get to the trials or you can hit the qualifier at the trials?

Apologies as I'm too lazy too look for myself.

Do I get to be first to mention Gwen?

Also I hope to see Droddy and Diego Estrada at the 10k trials

One is an underdog the other shouldn't be imho

i assumed no one mentioned Jorgensen because it was self evident/she's never made a national team without the bike and the swim, but aside from that -- you were the first and of course agree

also wrong sport but will be interesting to see how Ryan Lochte does at the 200 IM trials

he's currently sitting at/about 5th in the country in his signature/WR event and is about :02s off the pace to qualify.

He was already the oldest swimmer to be in the olympics at a distance over 100m and this would seal the deal possibly forever imo

Hard to root for him tho, but I'll be paying attention :D

Unfortunately Chris Derrick won't make it and is probably at the end of his competitive career.

Bold prediction...unless Jager shows up sometime soon...he won't make the Tokyo team.

If the fastest guys on the line just time trialed the 1500 at the trials then Centro is out for sure. I don't know why more people don't run this race like Cheruiyot did at the last world champs. If you think you're in 3:30 shape then just go run 3:30 and don't stress about a stupid tactical race in the finals.

Daltonj800m wrote:

-Men's 1500m (Centro. Never count him out in a championship setting)

Jake Wightman

Ryan Gregson

Have We Done This Before wrote:

Also I hope to see Droddy and Diego Estrada at the 10k trials

One is an underdog the other shouldn't be imho

Frank Lara will finish ahead of both

Informative post, off the top of my head I figured most runners did improve greatly after turning pro.