Official Thread: Walmsley, Herron, Tons of others to chase 100km WR in Project Carbon X 2

The other posted stated he is 'untouchable at 100 mile runnable races' not that he WOULD be a favorite at such and such race. I asked what other 100 mile races besides WSER that he has been untouchable at. I am uninterested in shoulda/woulda/coulda's.

You nailed in your own comment.

100 mile trail races is a unique US thing.

There are some like UTMB now but their are very rare in the rest of the world.

Let's not forget that the rest of the world is metric and the main ultraraces everywhere else are 100k and 24 hour road races.

Yes. And there is at this point hundreds(? at least over 100) 100 mile races in the US. Walmsley if I am not mistaken has won only 1 of them. Seems a bit odd to say he is 'untouchable' at this point.

nice try but that's not what I wrote. "he is untouchable at runnable 100mile trial ultras at the moment" Maybe I should have added 'perhaps' and was a bit overzealous but he is no1 in the trial rankings for a reason.

What is a runnable 100mile trial ultra anyway?

I guess when I think 'untouchable' I think someone like Scott Jurek who went around winning just about every really long race that mattered. Walsmley isn't there yet. But I concede, he would be the favorite at just about any flattish 100 mile race.

Anything that doesn't have a huge amount of elevation gain/loss. I would say anything where the winners are coming in less than or around 14-17 (on the high end) hours.

One where extreme vert elevation doesn't make it a 20+hr race. I get your point when talking about 100 mile races is a mainly a US thing and very few matching this profile. I was also surprised to learn the WS is Jim's only 100miler! but lets scale it down to 100k trail races + 50 miles flat. I would pu my money on Jim.

Well, out of the list of folks running this event I think Hayden Hawks depending on how big of a focus this is for him should be under consideration. He is very fast at that distance and just took down Walsmleys CR at JFK.

But I still want to see a healthy Krar racing Walmsley at something like Leadville.

ultrathreadsamusing wrote:

But I still want to see a healthy Krar racing Walmsley at something like Leadville.

Walmsley applied for Leadville a couple years back.

They didn't pick him.

He was surprised about that, understandably.

I can imagine, he will never go back there.

I remember that. But I am not so sure. Walmsley always seems more focused on CR's than wins and taking the Leadville CR would be huge.

Would love to see that too. Very inspiring to see him bounce back and almost get the CR at Leadville. (I read that due to the course change it was technically better than the record)...

Also agree that Hawks is very much under consideration for the win. I'm also keen to see what Tim Freriks can do. Hardly a dark horse anymore but maybe at this distance. Had a truly amazing 2017 season and great start to 2018 before hitting a wall at WS 2018. Since then i'm not sure if he has been injured, not able to train or whatever but hasn't captured the same form. His NFSF 50miler and Transvulcania wins were no mean feat and he is very young for an ultra runner, relatively speaking.

I think Hawks breaking Jim's JFK record certainly makes this more interesting. Also Hazen was the closest to Jim there before this year.

Spitball prediction is that the race at the front is between these 3 (unless they all blow up).

Again, will be super interesting to see what the strategy here is. I think the 100k AR is at least on the table in both races, but shooting for that is pretty incompatible with going for the WR on both the Men's and Women's side.

Gotta think just Camille has a shot at the AR though, and she's likely to instead go for the WR... quite a gap between those two.

bringst3hgrind wrote:

Again, will be super interesting to see what the strategy here is. I think the 100k AR is at least on the table in both races, but shooting for that is pretty incompatible with going for the WR on both the Men's and Women's side.

Gotta think just Camille has a shot at the AR though, and she's likely to instead go for the WR... quite a gap between those two.

You need to run a very even paced race to get to a time under 6:40. There is zero wiggle room.

So you either try for the WR and blow up. 99.9% likely. Or you try for a sub 6:30 and you might end up with a excellent sub 6:40 over 100k

Camille Herron on the other hand is to old to run faster than her 7:07. If she gets under 7:30 that would be an excellent result.

gadsfad wrote:

bringst3hgrind wrote:

Again, will be super interesting to see what the strategy here is. I think the 100k AR is at least on the table in both races, but shooting for that is pretty incompatible with going for the WR on both the Men's and Women's side.

Gotta think just Camille has a shot at the AR though, and she's likely to instead go for the WR... quite a gap between those two.

You need to run a very even paced race to get to a time under 6:40. There is zero wiggle room.

So you either try for the WR and blow up. 99.9% likely. Or you try for a sub 6:30 and you might end up with a excellent sub 6:40 over 100k

Camille Herron on the other hand is to old to run faster than her 7:07. If she gets under 7:30 that would be an excellent result.

I think we're in agreement on the pacing for WR vs AR targeting.

Camille ran a 3:25 50k in March. I feel like that indicates she might have a shot at the AR in a time trial environment no?

gadsfad wrote:

ultrathreadsamusing wrote:

But I still want to see a healthy Krar racing Walmsley at something like Leadville.

Walmsley applied for Leadville a couple years back.

They didn't pick him.

He was surprised about that, understandably.

I can imagine, he will never go back there.

Yep. Big Jim is literally bigger than Leadville. That race will never be the same if they don't right their wrong and convince Big Jim to give them a second chance.

bringst3hgrind wrote:

Camille ran a 3:25 50k in March. I feel like that indicates she might have a shot at the AR in a time trial environment no?

Has anybody on here actually run a 100k road race?

3:25:50 x 2 = 6:51:40

So no.

gadsfad wrote:

bringst3hgrind wrote:

Camille ran a 3:25 50k in March. I feel like that indicates she might have a shot at the AR in a time trial environment no?

Has anybody on here actually run a 100k road race?

3:25:50 x 2 = 6:51:40

So no.

Appreciate the lesson on multiplication by 2.

What time would you like to see someone run in a championship-style race on a cold day with strong wind to think that they have a shot at running 7 flat in a time trial that is presumably optimized for weather and that will have pacing?

You just asked for our opinions and I think that she is will not improve her 7:07 PR.

That's all.

Other people will have other opinion.

And we will see what happens on race day.

Most likely CH will drop out because of some stomach issues.

After all she is famous for her Taco - Donuts - Beer diet.