"slow" was meant to be "also"
"slow" was meant to be "also"
Maserati wrote:
You’re stepping pretty far up that moral pedestal, idiot.
This is the strong many making huge sacrifices for the weak few. What huge sacrifices? Their job, their freedom, their wealth, their entire way of life. Even if this doesn’t last more than say 4 months, irreparable damage can be done, affecting their entire lives moving forward. How many failures to launch will this create, who knows. Not all of them agree with the popular moral position, perhaps even a majority of them disagree.
It does not make them axxholes or ignorant or stupid. Many are now struggling to find ways to express themselves within the acceptable moral framework, which contradiction leads sometimes to nonsensical and illogical statements.
Listen to what they mean, rather than to what they are saying. Go deeper. Am I just making assumptions? No, it’s more than that. Listening to what you don’t want to hear can be tough.
Big +1 Mas. In short : let's have some empathy. A lot of people are scared and confused. This is a complicated matter on its own and its about to inflict one of the hardest economic hits on the middle class ever. Consider that most people who carry the virus are asymptomatic and for many people the symptoms aren't worse than the flu (which I'm sure we've all had at one point).
It's really not difficult to believe why people are struggling to wrap their heads around the bigger picture.
the idiot wrote:
Maserati wrote:You’re stepping pretty far up that moral pedestal, idiot.
Yes, and intentionally slow.
You evidently knew my > 30 years ago, although I don't know how well. And you knew others like me. So you'll have some sense of the analytical powers I would have been able to muster in my youth. I'm a lot older now, possibly senile. I have spent a considerable amount of my mental energy, drawing on the depths of my remaining brain cells, over the past few weeks immersing myself in the available data. Kindly assign whatever weight you deem appropriate to the alarm I'm trying to sound.
That's all I'll offer on the subject in this thread and let it rest. I've done what I can.
If it's so critically important to you that other people understand this data and you feel like they just aren't getting it then I'd say you should focus on the message and the delivery. Sounds like the current strategy isn't working out so great. Be a teacher
No one wants to be political.
Trump can resign & let Pence take a crack at it. Same party, after all.
J. Hardy wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Valuations do matter, and that was always the point.
I don’t think anyone would disagree with that. The issue has been exactly how much they matter. Valuations have been high for years, yet the markets continually set record highs during that time. It wasn’t until the pandemic surfaced that the markets took a nosedive. Clearly the coronavirus has been the catalyst for the current market woes.
Sorry, no different than Lehman Brothers. It is always identified as an event, when in reality it was the overvaluation and magical thinking.
the idiot wrote:
Maserati wrote:You’re stepping pretty far up that moral pedestal, idiot.
Yes, and intentionally slow.
You evidently knew my > 30 years ago, although I don't know how well. And you knew others like me. So you'll have some sense of the analytical powers I would have been able to muster in my youth. I'm a lot older now, possibly senile. I have spent a considerable amount of my mental energy, drawing on the depths of my remaining brain cells, over the past few weeks immersing myself in the available data. Kindly assign whatever weight you deem appropriate to the alarm I'm trying to sound.
That's all I'll offer on the subject in this thread and let it rest. I've done what I can.
Idiot,
Go to John Hussman’s Twitter page. He has done the same. You would enjoy his work on Covid-19.
Igy
Maserati wrote:
I disagree with it. Valuations do not matter.
What matters in any particular situation is interested people’s attitudes toward the valuation, particularly whether the valuation matters or not to them, and if they think it matters to other relevant people.
.
Once again, I agree with you. I've read this thread on and off (mostly off) over the years and (honestly) thought I was more in line w/Igy (re-stocks only) but having spent more time here in the last few days I realize my thoughts are far more in line with yours. Of course, we always think those that echo our believes are 'right'. lol
I actually intended to write some thoughts on where I fear all of this will take our economy and change how we live in the US but I realize that I, like everyone else, really have no idea where any of this is going so I will just say this...
I understand the need for SIP but I am afraid our government has only half of the equation in place to make it work for both slowing the disease and for limiting the damage to our economy.
I sure hope I'm wrong, and it should help to know, it wouldn't be the first time I was.
Best to all
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
J. Hardy wrote:
I don’t think anyone would disagree with that. The issue has been exactly how much they matter. Valuations have been high for years, yet the markets continually set record highs during that time. It wasn’t until the pandemic surfaced that the markets took a nosedive. Clearly the coronavirus has been the catalyst for the current market woes.
Sorry, no different than Lehman Brothers. It is always identified as an event, when in reality it was the overvaluation and magical thinking.
This is actually quite different.
J. Hardy wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sorry, no different than Lehman Brothers. It is always identified as an event, when in reality it was the overvaluation and magical thinking.
This is actually quite different.
No, your view is wrong, and will continue to be proven so. The loss of equity value was entirely predictable. The steepness of decline is unique to this period.
Idiot,
Skip all the accusations.
The rate changes daily.
It will transition from exponential to linear over a transitionary period.
We are not quite linear yet, but headed there.
Several consecutive days with the same number of new cases per day is all the data we need to establish stabilization. Last week's data will be irrelevant at that point.
Today at 12:25 P.M. EST there are 27004 confirmed cases in the U.S. Lets track the new cases over the next week and see. I'll post results every day at roughly 12:30 P.M. EST.
For the idiot and old math professor:
old math professor wrote:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR2Asv3WHx4wXhb_YGCeIaJ3Wcietk7ZgqDTTlpbZHWpEVpZ_McmU82mc0k#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Not to engage in further debate or discussion (I’ve blown my load, said what I needed to say), I will simply clarify that I’ve been downloading the complete times series data from that site daily for some long time, and my work with those data is the foundation for my position.
Best to all.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
J. Hardy wrote:
This is actually quite different.
No, your view is wrong, and will continue to be proven so. The loss of equity value was entirely predictable. The steepness of decline is unique to this period.
My view, like most others here, has always been that there there would eventually be a significant loss of equity. Years of high valuations, though, never led to such a loss. It took a pandemic to get us to where we are today.
Hussman has some pretty good math kung fu. His forward projection looks pretty linear to me.
Fair enough. Yesterday (Saturday) there were over 24,000 verified cases, so looks like about 3k new ones today.
J. Hardy wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
No, your view is wrong, and will continue to be proven so. The loss of equity value was entirely predictable. The steepness of decline is unique to this period.
My view, like most others here, has always been that there there would eventually be a significant loss of equity. Years of high valuations, though, never led to such a loss. It took a pandemic to get us to where we are today.
The history of bubbles would have given investors a road map. As in the past largely ignored. This episode fueled by unhinged debt accumulation, stock buybacks, and the belief that central banks could moderate the economic cycle. Now the great rebalancing has begun, with consequences that will last for years,
Just one more thing, idiot. Getting to the bottom of what mechanisms are in place, how such mechanisms are working, and will work, etc. will never cost lives. I suppose there is some benefit to overstating the public health crisis, but at some point people need an assessment of how their efforts are working, and what to expect. Otherwise we run the risk of people giving up and running amok, and indiscriminately swapping bodily fluids, etc.
Here is an analysis from Lance Roberts that details where we could be headed, which Inthink accurately portrays different scenarios:
“If our, and Mr. Rosenberg’s, estimates are correct of a 5-8% recessionary drag in the second quarter of 2020, then an average reduction in earnings of 30% is most likely overly optimistic.
However, here is the math:
Current Earnings = 132.90
30% Reduction = $100 (rounding down for easier math)
At various P/E multiples, we can predict where “fair value” for the market is based on historical assumptions:
20x earnings: Historically high but markets have traded at high valuations for the last decade.
18x earnings: Still historically high.
15x earnings: Long-Term Average
13x earnings: Undervalued
10x earnings: Extremely undervalued but aligned with secular bear market bottoms.
You can pick your own level where you think P/E’s will account for the global recession but the chart below prices it into the market.”